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STATE OF THE UNION

As America celebrates Independence Day, the US economy is powering along

Happy July 4th — here are six charts about the economy.

As you settle in for your second, third — or maybe 70th if your name is Joey Chestnut — hot dog today, you may find yourself unwittingly entered into a conversation about the economy.

To arm you for such an event, here’s some data:

The US economy's H1 2025
Sherwood News

The reality is that, despite a slew of soft economic data — think surveys and sentiment polls — that spooked investors in the springtime, the world’s largest economy has chugged along just fine. And yesterday’s official labor market data showed that the country added another 147,000 jobs in June. Unemployment fell to just 4.1%, with trade uncertainties yet to meaningfully dent the economic data.

Of course, there are always risks. The “wall of worry” that investors have had to climb in order to get comfortable investing has been pretty substantial, with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, continued trade uncertainty, and growing unease over the size of the federal deficit.

Even AI is a double-edged sword, with companies starting to make very real cuts to their workforces.

But dip buyers, both retail and institutional, can’t seem to kick the habit, leaving the S&P 500 Index at a record high just in time for America’s birthday.

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Streamers continued retreating from original shows in 2025

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OpenAI’s ARR reached over $20 billion in 2025, CFO says

Sam Altman’s $500 billion artificial intelligence behemoth hit a major financial milestone last year, according to a new blog post over the weekend from OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, as the company confirmed it had hit a more than $20 billion annual revenue run rate at the end of 2025.

Elsewhere in the blog post, Friar spent time addressing the company’s shifting goals, referencing plans to “close the distance between where intelligence is advancing and how individuals, companies, and countries actually adopt and use it.” As has become customary in the AI company press release genre, the CFO was also keen to tout the unending growth of the business, writing:

  • Both our Weekly Active User (WAU) and Daily Active User (DAU) figures continue to produce all-time highs. This growth is driven by a flywheel across compute, frontier research, products, and monetization.

  • Compute grew 3X year over year or 9.5X from 2023 to 2025: 0.2 GW in 2023, 0.6 GW in 2024, and ~1.9 GW in 2025.

And, perhaps most importantly for current backers and those keeping an eye on the private company before its rumored mega IPO:

  • Revenue followed the same curve growing 3X year over year, or 10X from 2023 to 2025: $2B ARR in 2023, $6B in 2024, and $20B+ in 2025. This is never-before-seen growth at such scale.

That latest figure has certainly set tongues in the tech world wagging, just as the company announced it would begin rolling out ads to free and ChatGPT Go users. It also puts the chatbot giant a fair way ahead of competitors like Anthropic, the company behind Claude.

OpenAI Anthropic ARR race
Sherwood News

Elsewhere in the blog post, Friar spent time addressing the company’s shifting goals, referencing plans to “close the distance between where intelligence is advancing and how individuals, companies, and countries actually adopt and use it.” As has become customary in the AI company press release genre, the CFO was also keen to tout the unending growth of the business, writing:

  • Both our Weekly Active User (WAU) and Daily Active User (DAU) figures continue to produce all-time highs. This growth is driven by a flywheel across compute, frontier research, products, and monetization.

  • Compute grew 3X year over year or 9.5X from 2023 to 2025: 0.2 GW in 2023, 0.6 GW in 2024, and ~1.9 GW in 2025.

And, perhaps most importantly for current backers and those keeping an eye on the private company before its rumored mega IPO:

  • Revenue followed the same curve growing 3X year over year, or 10X from 2023 to 2025: $2B ARR in 2023, $6B in 2024, and $20B+ in 2025. This is never-before-seen growth at such scale.

That latest figure has certainly set tongues in the tech world wagging, just as the company announced it would begin rolling out ads to free and ChatGPT Go users. It also puts the chatbot giant a fair way ahead of competitors like Anthropic, the company behind Claude.

OpenAI Anthropic ARR race
Sherwood News
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