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Adobe’s revenue

Adobe’s subscription business is still booming

6/17/24 11:56AM
Updated 6/17/24 3:17PM

On Friday, shares in Adobe rose more than 15%, after the company reported record quarterly sales of $5.3B and raised its annual revenue forecast. The design software giant appears to be reaping the rewards from its generative AI tool Firefly, with net-new annualized recurring revenue for its Digital Media division coming in $50M ahead of analyst forecasts.

That came after a tough week for the company’s PR team, who found themselves fighting a backlash against its updated terms and conditions — yes, thankfully there are some people who read them cover to cover — after users criticized language which seemed to suggest that Adobe could use customers’ work to train generative AI models.

Turns out this week won’t be that easy for Adobe PR, either: The US Justice Department sued the company, saying its subscriptions — which help drive the aforementioned revenue gains — are too hard for its users to cancel.

Trust fall

From a financial perspective, Adobe has done a phenomenal job of pivoting away from its old perpetual license model, where customers would buy once and own for a lifetime, to a monthly subscription model in which the product, and the terms of use that govern the product, are always changing. Indeed, over the past 10 years, subscription revenue has grown 16x, driving much of the company’s growth and turning it into a $200B+ giant… albeit one that isn’t universally trusted, per viral posts on X.

To clear up any confusion, Adobe says it will roll out a new terms of use agreement tomorrow, which will clarify that users own their work and that the company doesn’t train generative AI on customer content.

Zoom out: In a year marked by a record number of global elections, generative AI is taking off and users are asking simple questions like “how do I know what’s real?” and “how do I know my likeness or content isn’t being used by AI?” Companies don’t always have the answers.

Update (4 p.m. EST): Added new information following DOJ suit against Adobe.

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Paramount Skydance reportedly preparing an Ellison-backed Warner Bros. Discovery takeover bid, sending shares soaring

Paramount Skydance is preparing a majority cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, The Wall Street Journal reported, sending shares of both companies surging. The Journal’s sources say the deal is backed by the Ellison family, led by David Ellison.

WBD shares were up 30% on the report, while Paramount Skydance jumped 8%.

The offer would cover WBD’s entire business — cable networks, movie studios, the whole enchilada. That comes after WBD announced plans last year to split into two divisions: one for streaming and studios, the other for its traditional cable and TV assets. A recent Wells Fargo note gave WBD a price target hike, primarily because the analysts viewed it as a prime takeover candidate.

If the deal goes through, it would bring together HBO, CNN, DC Studios, and Warner Bros.’ film library with Paramount+, Nickelodeon, and MTV, all under one umbrella.

The offer would cover WBD’s entire business — cable networks, movie studios, the whole enchilada. That comes after WBD announced plans last year to split into two divisions: one for streaming and studios, the other for its traditional cable and TV assets. A recent Wells Fargo note gave WBD a price target hike, primarily because the analysts viewed it as a prime takeover candidate.

If the deal goes through, it would bring together HBO, CNN, DC Studios, and Warner Bros.’ film library with Paramount+, Nickelodeon, and MTV, all under one umbrella.

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Fox and News Corp slide as investors digest $3.3 billion Murdoch succession settlement

Fox and News Corp shares dropped on Tuesday after Rupert Murdoch’s heirs agreed to a $3.3 billion settlement to resolve a long-running succession drama.

Under the deal, Prudence, Elisabeth, and James Murdoch will each receive about $1.1 billion, paid for in part by Fox selling 16.9 million Class B voting shares and News Corp selling 14.2 million shares. The stock sales will raise roughly $1.37 billion on behalf of the three heirs.

The new trust for Lachlan Murdoch will now control about 36.2% of Fox’s Class B shares and roughly 33.1% of News Corp’s stock, granting him uncontested voting authority over both companies for the next 25 years. Originally, the Murdoch trust was designed to hand over voting control of Fox and News Corp to Prudence, Elisabeth, Lachlan, and James after his death.

Investors are weighing the trade-off. Clear leadership under Lachlan may resolve conflict internally, but the share dilution, executed at a roughly 4.5% discount, means long-term investors now hold slightly less clout than before.

Both companies’ stocks were trading close to all-time highs prior to the announcement.

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