Revolutions per minute
For many Americans, Independence Day Weekend is synonymous with another storied US institution: the road trip. As yesterday’s barbecues and fireworks recede in the rear-view mirror, AAA predicts that a record 43.2 million people will have driven more than 50 miles to spend time with friends and loved ones over the break, up 2.4% on last year.
That forecast was bolstered by cheaper gas at the pump — July 3rd saw nationwide average prices for regular gasoline of $3.53 per gallon, down ~30% from their mid-2022 peak of $5.01, according to the EIA — providing some welcome inflation relief for at least one part of Americans' wallets.
Tank half full?
While lower gas prices have helped reignite a spirit of adventure, pent-up demand from the tail end of “revenge travel” is still an important factor. Indeed, despite ongoing delays, cancellations, heatwaves and sky-high prices, plane trips are expected to have climbed even more so than driving — up 11.2% to 4.2 million people, a record share of travel for the long weekend.
The AAA predictions, besides a rare overestimate during 2021’s uncertain reopening, tend to be accurate. If those forecasts hold up, it may demonstrate some resilience from US consumers in the face of a cloudy economic backdrop — for now, at least.
