Great expectations: Nvidia has driven the stock market higher, but can it live up to the hype this week?

8/20/23 8:00PM

Great expectations

‍For much of this year, AI has been the driving force behind much of the positive stock market narrative. Now, that optimism is set to be tested, as Nvidia, the best performing stock in the S&P 500 Index in 2023, will report earnings on Wednesday.

Back in May, Nvidia told investors that it expected revenue in its second quarter of the year to be around $11bn. There’s nothing particularly unusual about doing that — companies offer this sort of guidance all the time — except that it was roughly 50% more than what analysts were expecting... which is particularly unusual. Indeed, that kind of increase would have been surprising even for a much smaller company, but for a giant like Nvidia, it's pretty much unheard of.

‍Right place, right time

‍Not by accident, Nvidia now finds itself in the perfect position to cash in on the AI boom, as demand for the company’s graphics processing units (GPUs), which can power large-language models and other machine learning tools, surges. For example, OpenAI’s models for the groundbreaking GPT-3 model were trained on Nvidia hardware.

So far, Nvidia shares have roughly tripled in value this year, taking the company to a $1 trillion valuation, and dragging much of the rest of the tech sector with it. Will it live up to the hype?

‍Related reading: Chartr's Sunday Deep Dive — Checking In On ChatGPT.

Jon Keegan16h

DeepSeek releases new V4 series models highlighting efficiency and long context

Chinese AI lab DeepSeek has released a major new version of its eponymous open-source AI models that are nipping at the heels of leading frontier models in some areas.

The most significant DeepSeek-V4 Pro and DeepSeek-V4 Flash both have a 1 million-token context — the amount of information the model can actively work with in a single session — which is a crucial feature for complex, long-running coding tasks.

DeepSeek rebuilt how the models process information under the hood, making them substantially more efficient — and that efficiency is what makes the large context window actually usable.

Also, the new models’ coding skills have closed the gap with the major frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.

The authors of the model acknowledge some of V4’s shortcomings, such as its lower scores on reasoning benchmarks, saying that V4 “trails state-of-the-art frontier models by approximately 3 to 6 months.”

As open-weight models, V4 can be run on any user’s own hardware, making the V4 models among the top-performing open-source models out there. V4’s large context and token efficiency are especially significant among open-source models.

But like with earlier DeepSeek models, don’t ask it about Tiananmen Square.

DeepSeek Unveils Flagship AI Model a Year After Breakthrough

DeepSeek rebuilt how the models process information under the hood, making them substantially more efficient — and that efficiency is what makes the large context window actually usable.

Also, the new models’ coding skills have closed the gap with the major frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.

But like with earlier DeepSeek models, don’t ask it about Tiananmen Square.

$28.5T

Rani Molla17h

SpaceX thinks its total addressable market (TAM) is a whopping $28.5 trillion for its businesses, according to an S-1 filing for its upcoming IPO reviewed by Reuters. And most of that market isn’t rockets. The company says roughly 90% could come from AI — largely selling artificial intelligence tools to businesses.

“We believe that our enterprise strategy, which is focused on serving the digital needs of the world’s largest industries with Al solutions, positions us competitively to pursue this rapidly ⁠growing opportunity,” SpaceX said in the filing. “We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history.”

TAM, of course, assumes capturing every possible customer. But even a small slice of a $28.5 trillion market would be enormous.

Rani Molla18h

Tesla Cybercab production has begun

On Tesla’s earnings call earlier this week, CEO Elon Musk said production of the company’s steering-wheel-less Cybercab had begun. Since then, Musk and Tesla have posted videos showing the gold two-seater rolling off the line at its Texas Gigafactory and onto the road.

Cybercab has started production pic.twitter.com/MAeswanf96
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 24, 2026

The Cybercab — meant both for consumers and Tesla’s Robotaxi network — is widely seen as central to the company’s future. “The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots,” Musk said last year.

Whether these cars actually make it to consumers is another question. For now, regulations generally require steering wheels, and Tesla still has to prove the vehicles can reliably drive themselves.

In formation pic.twitter.com/7qA0SluL8J
— Tesla Robotaxi (@robotaxi) April 24, 2026

On the earnings call, Musk said production would be “very slow” but would ramp up and go “kind of exponential towards the end of the year and certainly next year.”

Rani Molla18h

Meta signs deal to use Amazon Graviton chips

Meta said it will deploy “tens of millions” of Amazon Web Services Graviton CPU cores to power so-called “agentic” AI systems — tools that can reason, plan, and act on their own. The move makes Meta one of the largest customers of Amazon’s in-house chips.

The deal also underscores a broader shift in AI infrastructure, as companies move beyond Nvidia GPUs and use different chips for different tasks.

Meta, which is working on its own custom inference chips, also has chip deals with Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia.

Meta Partners With AWS on Graviton Chips to Power Agentic AI

The deal also underscores a broader shift in AI infrastructure, as companies move beyond Nvidia GPUs and use different chips for different tasks.

Meta, which is working on its own custom inference chips, also has chip deals with Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia.

Rani Molla19h

Oracle rises after Wedbush’s Dan Ives calls the stock a buy with 25% upside

Oracle extended its premarket gains Friday after Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives initiated coverage with an “outperform” rating and a $225 price target — about 25% upside to its pre-initiation level — calling the enterprise software and cloud infrastructure company a “foundational infrastructure provider for the AI revolution.”

Ives argues investors are misreading Oracle’s heavy capital spending and negative free cash flow as risky, despite being backed by a massive $553 billion backlog of contracted demand. He says the company’s “secret sauce” is a two-part strategy: building high-performance cloud infrastructure for AI workloads while connecting those models directly to companies’ own data.

“We believe Oracle is in the early innings of a significant repositioning as it executes on this generational opportunity,” Ives wrote.