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Meta is supercharging its subscription businesses

The free-app giant never really cared about recurring revenue. Now, it’s launching paid plans for all sorts of stuff.

Since its founding, Metas revenue engine has revolved around ads, with only a passing glance toward subscriptions. Now, a string of recent announcements and reporting show Meta in a full-court press to grow subscription revenue as a way to help pay for its ballooning AI capital expenditure budget — now slated for up to $145 billion this year — and diversify from advertising revenue.

While Meta’s core products remain free, Meta One-branded subscriptions — some rolling out and some in testing — unlock a number of added features for its apps and hardware. (Paying for the subscriptions doesn’t remove ads.) Here’s an overview of what’s on offer:

Subscription: Instagram Plus, Facebook Plus, and WhatsApp Plus.
Cost: $3.99 a month ($2.99 for WhatsApp).
What it does: Paid additions to its most popular apps that offer extra features like profile customization, super reactions, and story insights.
Will anyone use it? These apps remain free for regular users, so the market would be for power users. That’s a small subset of Meta’s user base — but its user base is enormous, with 3.5 billion daily active users.

Subscription: AI plans for people: Meta One Plus and Meta One Premium.
Cost: $7.99 and $19.99.
What it does: Gives individuals additional access to Meta’s AI chatbot to generate images, videos, and reasoning beyond the limits of the free service.
Will anyone use it? This is Metas play to capture consumer AI revenue directly from OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. While the $19.99 Premium tier rivals flagship offerings like ChatGPT Plus, Gemini Advanced, and Anthropic Pro, the real battlefield is the low-cost Plus tier. It goes head-to-head with OpenAI’s budget $8 ChatGPT Go plan, but Meta’s deal includes Plus subscriptions for free. Meta is betting that casual users who already spend their lives in these social ecosystems will choose the bundled value and convenience of in-app AI over navigating to a stand-alone competitor.

Subscription: Plans for businesses and creators: Meta One Essential and Meta One Advanced.
Cost: $14.99 and $49.99.
What it does: The Essential plan includes a verified badge, impersonation protection, and an enhanced link sheet. On top of that, the Advanced plan includes a variety of tools, including optimized search, links within posts and reels, insights, optimized scheduling, and collaboration. In the coming weeks, these plans will include upgraded AI usage and the app Plus features. In the future, these plans will include Meta Business Agent, an AI agent deployed in chat that is designed to make product recommendations, book appointments, qualify leads, and close sales.
Will anyone use it? Meta says that a million businesses already use Meta Business Agent on WhatsApp and Messenger. With more than a billion active threads with businesses on WhatsApp, Messenger, and Instagram a day, the value proposition is simple: letting mom-and-pop shops and large brands handle customer acquisition, support, and sales 24/7 without hiring a massive customer service team. Because it integrates natively with major third-party platforms like Shopify and Zendesk, this potentially represents a significant threat to existing third-party chatbot services.

Subscription: Hatch (internal name, unreleased).
Cost: The Information reports up to $200 a month, but Meta says pricing has not yet been determined.
What it does: Consumer version of the OpenClaw AI agent tool that can vibe code new software tools, schedule events on users’ calendars, and send emails on their behalf, among other actions.
Will anyone use it? While the price point puts it in line with the top offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI, it’s not clear whether users will get the same bang for their buck. As The Information reported, “In its development so far, Hatch has been powered by Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and Claude Sonnet 4.6 models. When launched, Hatch will be powered by Meta’s latest AI model, Muse Spark, the person said.”

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FT: Anthropic staff helping the NSA use Mythos for offensive cyberattacks

Anthropic’s Mythos AI model was deemed too dangerous to release to the public, with the company citing its ability to orchestrate novel cyberattacks.

And that’s just what the National Security Agency is doing, with the help of Anthropic staff embedded at the agency, according to a report from the Financial Times.

Only a small number of companies and US allies have been given access to the advanced model, which means America’s adversaries have not had the chance to shore up their defenses against the AI model’s new offensive capabilities.

The arrangement is especially unusual as the Pentagon has deemed Anthropic’s AI a national security supply chain risk — effectively blacklisting it for defense work — in response to the company’s refusal to allow its technology to be used for any legal application, which could include autonomous killing or mass surveillance. Anthropic is currently suing the US government to fight the determination.

Only a small number of companies and US allies have been given access to the advanced model, which means America’s adversaries have not had the chance to shore up their defenses against the AI model’s new offensive capabilities.

The arrangement is especially unusual as the Pentagon has deemed Anthropic’s AI a national security supply chain risk — effectively blacklisting it for defense work — in response to the company’s refusal to allow its technology to be used for any legal application, which could include autonomous killing or mass surveillance. Anthropic is currently suing the US government to fight the determination.

tech

Longtime Tesla bear JPMorgan upgraded Tesla and raised its price target to $475 from $145

For more than a decade, JPMorgan was Wall Streets most stubborn Tesla skeptic, anchored by auto analyst Ryan Brinkman’s strict focus on traditional car fundamentals and near-term delivery numbers.

But JPM recently handed coverage of the stock to a new analyst, Rajat Gupta, who is throwing that playbook out the window. In a note Friday, the firm upgraded Tesla to neutral from underweight and raised its price target 228% to $475 from $145. (The analyst consensus on FactSet is $403.) Instead of focusing on the company’s struggling vehicle business, the new analyst is orienting himself more toward Tesla’s idea of the future, now modeling Tesla’s physical AI and robotaxi fleets all the way out to the year 2040.

Here are the main reasons for the capitulation:

  • Looking past the car lot: Gupta argues that Tesla is at the forefront of physical AI, entering uncharted TAMs” and therefore deserves the benefit of the doubt to be valued on LT earnings potential rather than near-term speed bumps.

  • Unmatched vertical integration: Teslas control over everything from battery cells to custom silicon gives it a massive moat. JPM notes this starting point advantage is unmatched at an industrial level scale” and “still somewhat under-appreciated and misunderstood.

  • The AWS flywheel effect: Deploying Optimus robots inside its own factories should not only lower COGS for the base automotive business, but more importantly, help validate the product at an industrial scale.” Gupta called it “a classic flywheel effect, somewhat analogous to AWS and Kiva at AMZN.

For Tesla bulls who have argued for years that this is an AI company and not a carmaker, JPM’s sudden $3.9 trillion valuation model is the ultimate validation.

skynet terminator

Anthropic ponders self-improving AI

Anthropic says Claude already writes 80% of its code. A new post asks what happens when the models can improve themselves — and whether anyone could stop them.

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ChatGPT hit 1 billion users nearly twice as fast as TikTok did

It took Facebook and Instagram around eight years; it took YouTube just over six; even TikTok, which at the time felt like it was a global sensation almost as soon as it arrived, took more than half a decade.

Now, though, the mobile version of ChatGPT has positively left the biggest platforms (and all of your other favorite apps) in the dust, hitting 1 billion monthly active users in just three years, per new data from market intelligence firm Sensor Tower, as more users turn to OpenAI’s chatbot each month.

ChatGPT 1 billion users chart
Sherwood News

While rival Anthropic might be pulling ahead in terms of annualized recurring revenue, enterprise customer adoption, and valuation, the app version of Claude, a market-leading chatbot on several counts, has clocked only 56 million monthly active users in the quarter to date.

In fact, according to Abe Yousef, a senior insights analyst at Sensor Tower, ChatGPT’s monthly active user count for the quarter to date outweighs the figures for Claude, Gemini (472 million), Doubao (106 million), Dola (78 million), DeepSeek (68 million), Meta AI (61 million), Grok (50 million), Perplexity (44 million), and Copilot (31 million)... combined.

ChatGPT made a pretty big splash in the tech world when it landed toward the end of 2022, but there’s no question that the mobile versions — which launched on iOS in May 2023, then on Android a couple months later — helped to catapult the chatbot into the mainstream proper.

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