__Hot off the BLS press…__ The US just got its inflation report card for March, and the [results](https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/12/economy/cpi-inflation-march/index.html) were… interesting. Consumer prices *rose* 0.1% for the month, but less than Wall Street’s expected 0.2% climb. Stocks were mixed after the #s dropped, as investors questioned whether the mellower-than-expected data could (finally) lead to a rate-hike pause. The report's timing is key: yesterday’s inflation data came after March’s banking [blowup](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2rAIIq68rwaF2sAJxAbvQl/articles/752EZnqO0NvG23NtlboY4e/) and before the Fed’s expected early-May rate decision. 

- __Sunny side up:__ Grocery prices fell 0.2% in March, marking the first decline since 2020. Egg prices also started to crack, plunging more than 10% from February highs.

- __Upside down:__ Rising shelter prices (like: rent, hotel costs) were the main driver of rising consumer prices, even as rent growth cooled. 

__The great rate-hike divide…__ Fed Chair Powell has been loud about staying the course of raising rates to crush inflation. Despite that, earlier this month banking worries and underwhelming labor data had traders betting on only a 43% chance that the Fed would hike interest rates in May. After yesterday's mixed report (think: still high inflation that's showing signs of easing), those odds stood at nearly 70%. Muddying things, earlier this week two Fed presidents expressed contrasting views over whether more hikes would be needed to curb inflation.

When omelets are back on the menu (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Torn

__Staying the course can lead to a fork in the road…__ Fed officials' divided statements, plus mixed economic predictions, have led to softer rate rhetoric. Yesterday, __[Goldman Sachs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GS/)__ said it no longer expected the Fed to raise rates in June. Traders also bolstered their belief that the Fed would reverse course by summer’s end, with rates ending the year nearly half a percentage point lower.

Inflation came in cooler than expected in March, leaving Fed officials and Wall Street divided over the path for rate hikes

__It’s not about the journey…__ it’s about how much it costs to get to the destination. The early pandemic race that saw delivery speeds approaching Mach levels (at discount prices) is [slowing](https://www.wsj.com/articles/online-shoppings-fast-delivery-race-is-slowing-down-73d4c68c). Now big online retailers are raising shipping costs and shifting what “free shipping” means: 

- __New terms:__ At the end of February, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__ bumped the minimum purchase total for its free grocery-delivery service to $150 (up from $35).

- __More-to-door:__ __[FedEx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FDX/)__ and __[UPS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UPS/)__ said they're raising their rates by an average of 7%.

- __For a price:__ __[Nike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKE/)__ and __[Best Buy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BBY/)__ offer free shipping as a membership-program perk (the cost: shared personal data).

__Timing isn’t everything…__ Determined to keep order totals low, consumers are increasingly opting for longer (that is: cheaper) wait times over costlier fast delivery. The number of packages delivered through Amazon’s shipping option that credits customers up to $1.50 for choosing slower delivery has doubled since 2020, the company said. Meanwhile, a recent survey of online shoppers found that 41% rank shipping cost as their top priority when placing an order (up from 33%), while 22% rank delivery speed as the most important factor (down from 29%). It seems shoppers aren't in a rush: another survey found that 85% of what’s ordered online isn’t opened for days.

Speed

__Fast isn’t worth the cost of free…__ With higher retail and grocery costs eating into shoppers’ budgets, many are opting to practice patience when it comes to their online buys. For retailers who’ve used fast, free shipping to gain an edge, stemming losses from higher shipping costs without alienating customers is a careful dance.

Ecommerce’s delivery sprint is slowing to a jog as consumer habits shift

March’s mixed inflation #s have Fed officials and Wall Street split on future rate hikes

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

40% of surveyed American adults are considering buying an EV for their next vehicle

🏦  The great rate-hike divide

__No “undo” button here…__ While submitting prompts to ChatGPT, __Samsung__ employees [leaked](https://www.engadget.com/three-samsung-employees-reportedly-leaked-sensitive-data-to-chatgpt-190221114.html) secret company info to the AI chatbot, a report from The Economist Korea said. After Samsung’s chip-making division gave engineers the green light to use __OpenAI’s__ chatty bot, employees apparently shared sensitive source code and meeting recordings to streamline their work. Now Samsung is reported to be restricting employee use of CGPT and trying to build its *own* bot. 

- __Feeding the gremlin:__ The more prompts you feed CGPT, the more its AI brain grows. CGPT’s data policy allows OpenAI to leverage users’ prompts to train its bots (unless they opt out). 

__CGPT spills the tea…__ OpenAI urges users *not* to share private info with CGPT because it could use parts of your prompt input in its responses to others. But recent surveys suggest that CGPT is already broadly used by corporate workers. Meanwhile, OpenAI-backer __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT/)__ is incorporating CPGT into its productivity software like Word and Excel. Samsung isn’t the only corporate giant sweating over employee chats with ChatGPT.

- __Corporate titans__ like __[JPMorgan](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JPM/)__, __[Verizon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VZ/)__, and __[Goldman Sachs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GS/)__ have blocked employee access to CGPT, while others like __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__ and __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT/)__ have reportedly issued warnings not to share sensitive info with the tool.

- __Italy has banned__ CPGT, at least for now, saying it collected personal data — and other EU countries are also considering restricting it over data-privacy concerns.

What goes in doesn’t come out (Frank Rumpenhorst/Getty Images)

Oops

__New tools need new rules…__ Nearly [half](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-20/using-chatgpt-at-work-nearly-half-of-firms-are-drafting-policies-on-its-use) of companies are scrambling to draft guidelines for CGPT, since the haziness around employee use poses a security threat. Meanwhile, the Biden admin is exploring whether rules need to be imposed on AI bots, including whether a certification process should be required before release.

Samsung and other companies stress over employee use of ChatGPT as data worries emerge

__Put a lid on it…__ __[Tupperware](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TUP/)__'s leaking profits. The 77-year-old food-storage icon [said](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/tupperware-could-go-out-of-business-company-warns-rcna79115) that it may have to shut down, and that it’s hired advisers in a bid to seal its survival as sales slump. Since the news hit last week, its stock has plunged nearly 50%. Tupperware enjoyed a pandemic boom as locked-down shoppers breathed new life into leftovers, but it didn't last. 

- __The Tupperware party’s over…__ Last year sales dropped 18%, and the biz ended the year with $700M+ in debt.

- __Trays not chic:__ Tupperware rose to fame with 1950s "Tupperware parties," but has struggled to catch on with younger generations (despite a distribution deal last year with Target).

__Going green to get that green…__ Tupperware lost out as younger shoppers passed on plastic resealable tubs in favor of more sustainable glass or metal options. FYI: 84% of surveyed US shoppers said they're concerned about plastic waste, and more than 60% said they'd pay more for sustainably packaged products. Last year, Tupperware's CEO said the plastic powerhouse would expand its offerings to include more glass and stainless steel. Tupperware's pitch as the OG reusable product wasn't enough to shift consumer shopping sentiment.

SEALED

__Genericized products have generic competition…__ Tupperware's a name brand, but lots of shoppers equate its products with any resealable food container. It's a common problem for brands that've become so ubiquitous they define an entire category (like: Kleenex, Q-tips, and Ziploc). While consumers might splurge extra on brand-name Coke or Nikes rather than knockoffs, items like food containers and cotton swabs are seen by many as interchangeable. And if generic options are cheaper or more sustainable, they have a leg up.

Tupperware says it’s on the brink of going stale as its name-brand power wanes

From 1996 to 2007, Emily was the most popular baby name in the US

💼 ChatGPT clocks in

__Looks like a shipping container…__ actually a *huge* battery. Elon Musk said on Sunday that __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA/)__ would begin [building](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/business/elon-musk-tesla-shanghai-battery-factory.html) its Shanghai Megapack factory — and it has nothing to do with EVs. Tesla’s four-year-old Megapack biz is all about energy-storage solutions for businesses and homes. Picture: specially designed lithium batteries that store renewable energy from wind and the sun. While EVs are still Tesla's #1 moneymaker, there’s growing demand for energy-storage solutions as lithium prices plunge. The Shanghai Megapack plant is expected to be finished by early next year, and it could produce 10K Megapacks/year. Tesla said one Megapack battery can power 3.6K homes for an hour.

__Supercharged China ties…__ Musk’s latest Shanghai investment comes as tensions boil between the US and China. The Biden admin has been urging automakers to move their manufacturing out of China and into the US, offering incentives like EV tax credits and billions in clean energy and battery investments. But it would be hard for Tesla to shift gears out of the world’s biggest EV market: last year, Tesla's Shanghai factory produced 700K+ cars (over half its global output). 


From Powerwalls to Megapacks (Andrew Francis Wallace/Getty Images)

Volt


__Side hustles can turn into main gigs…__ By charging up in non-EV biz, Tesla can position itself as an all-around energy company. With EV competition heating up, Tesla’s been slashing car prices as its electric market share shrinks. Now it hopes Megapack could be the next big growth driver (some analysts think the biz could earn $10B+ in annual revenue). With energy-storage products like Megapack and Powerwall, Tesla aims to turn itself into a green-energy go-to. 

Tesla’s new Shanghai Megapack plant could fuel its energy-storage biz as EV growth slows

__The instant block…__ makes its corporate debut. After newsletter service __Substack__ announced a __Twitter__-like feature called Notes last week, the Musk-led Twitter began [retaliating](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/07/technology/twitter-substack-elon-musk.html). It blocked creators’ ability to embed tweets in Substack posts, banned likes and retweets on tweets with Substack links, and removed the ability to search “Substack” on Twitter. Over the weekend, Substack [said](https://twitter.com/SubstackInc/status/1644897660615249920) that the “suppression of Substack publications” appeared to be over. But for a while the changes left lots of independent Substack creators without access to a critical distribution platform.

__Unlike and unsubscribe…__ As the tech industry focuses on cutting costs, the fledgling creator economy is experiencing turbulence. In 2021, creator-focused companies like __Patreon__, __Cameo__, and __Discord__ were thriving as we binged from our couches. But by the end of last year, funding for US creator startups was down 79%. It’s not just businesses feeling the end of the [boom time](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4ivhnY1RscwdC1MNfKSQqi/articles/2eYLLi6X6hdLeIHiK28bOa/) — creators are taking a hit too.

- __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)’s__ Twitch last week announced it would experiment with taking a cut from streamers’ brand sponsorships. In the fall, the company began taking a bigger chunk of creators’ subscription revenue. 
- __[Snap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP/)__ cut payouts for its TikTok-esque Spotlight feature several times last year, and __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META/)__ last month paused a monetization feature that paid creators for posting Reels. Meanwhile, __TikTok’s__ new creator fund isn’t clear on its revenue-sharing terms.
- __Meta’s__ layoffs gutted an already overwhelmed customer-service team, leaving creators without contacts when they face issues like impersonators.


Bump

__Alienating creators risks alienating audiences…__ because users come to platforms for the content. Notable Substack creators — including vocal Musk supporters — left Twitter after the Substack blockade began. In the creator-economy turmoil, brands that reward talent could get a leg up. In February, __[YouTube](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL/)__ began sharing ad revenue with Shorts creators — a move that could see influencers ditching Reels and Spotlight for more lucrative short videos.

Twitter’s (temporary) Substack blockade is the latest snafu for the beleaguered creator economy

🤝 When you outsource the technical part of the job to a contractor…

Tomorrow's scheduled [Shanghai](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7g8WyDpRHlBW4XKb0ArYq9/articles/3YIdBYT3OuwOf9IqZp0aMK/) update to the __ethereum__ blockchain — if [successful](https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/04/08/ethereum-shanghai-upgrade-ether-crypto-markets/) — will finally let people sell the ether that they locked up on the blockchain to validate transactions (aka [staking](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3Zy7nWCeAzQOjEeKFD5zwW/articles/7A7vAvybFvXFNBUcPqFsGU/)). Lido is a protocol that stakes coins on behalf of users (for a cut of the proceeds) *and* issues __stETH__, a tradable token that represents one ether staked with Lido. Lido holds about a third of the $31B worth of staked ether.

DEFI(NE)

Heard on the Block: “Lido”

Tesla’s Shanghai Megapack plant could fuel its energy-storage biz as EV growth slows

“The Super Mario Bros. Movie” had the highest-earning opening weekend so far this year

🔋 Tesla’s “Megapack” bet

__Bachelor’s in physics…__ workin’ in software sales. As the market for entry-level jobs [grows](https://www.wsj.com/articles/jobs-new-college-graduates-2023-labor-market-openings-7195e28) more cutthroat, 40% of 2023 college grads are applying to industries or roles they hadn’t considered before. The unemployment rate for grads aged 20 to 24 has doubled since 2021, hitting 4.6% in February. It’s a reversal from 2018, when grads were more likely to get hired than seasoned workers. This semester, we’ve got a college-hiring conundrum:

- __While unemployment is historically low__, and there are more job openings than available workers, a lot of employers are pulling back on early offers to college seniors.

__Sending LinkedIn requests since 2020…__ The entry-level talent pool has filled up after lots of recent grads were laid off or took time off during the pandemic (think: #vanlife adventure). This year, employers plan to hire 14% more grads than last year, one [survey](https://www.naceweb.org/job-market/trends-and-predictions/employers-project-14-point-7-percent-increase-in-hiring-for-class-of-2023-college-graduates/#:~:text=Employers%20Project%2014.7%25%20Increase%20in%20Hiring%20for%20Class%20of%202023%20College%20Graduates,-October%2024%2C%202022&text=Employers%20plan%20to%20hire%2014.7,NACE's%20Job%20Outlook%202023%20report.) suggested. But snagging top roles is becoming more competitive, and employers are engaging in fewer bidding wars for younger talent. Now grads are casting wider nets and working overtime to polish their applications. Meanwhile, popular employers are curbing entry-level hiring as mass layoffs roll on.

- __Tech check:__ __Amazon__ postponed start dates for some ’23 grads for up to six months, and __Meta__ recently began hiring freezes after sweeping layoffs. 
- __Sofa days:__ Furniture retailer __Wayfair__ has cut 10% of its workforce and is limiting hiring for full-time roles and internships. 
- __Consulting crunch:__ Last month __McKinsey__ said it would let go of 2K workers in one of the consulting firm’s biggest cuts ever. 

Refreshing LinkedIn for the hundredth time (David Crane/Getty Images)

Applied

__Slow starts could signal a soft landing…__ Fewer job opportunities for college grads could be another sign that the hot labor market is (finally) starting to cool. In February, US job openings dropped to their lowest level since ’21. With companies dialing back from super-growth mode, the domino effect of past grads entering the workforce late could make it tough for *new* grads to snag high-demand positions. They’re not losing hope: 76% of this year’s grads believe they can find a well-paying gig.

College grads face a choppy job market as tough competition and hiring curbs limit roles

__Bankin' on it…__ __JPMorgan Chase__, __Citi__, and __Wells Fargo__ are on deck to report Friday as the US banking system undergoes a tectonic shift. “Too big to fail” banks saw an influx of deposits after the failures of regional banks like __Silvergate__, __SVB__, and __Signature Bank__. Meanwhile, customers have moved $300B+ into money market funds over the past few weeks — which could cut into big banking profits. In Q4 of last year, most major banks beat expectations. For the latest quarter, analysts expect higher revenues and profits. 

__Waiting for a #Powse…__ Powell pause. On Wednesday, the US gets its inflation report card for March. Investors always have eyes on the Consumer Price Index, but this one could be extra spicy: it’s the first since the banking turmoil, and the last before the Fed’s next rate-hike decision meeting on May 2. After banking worries and underwhelming labor data, traders were betting on a 60% chance that the central bank *won’t* hike interest rates. Some even expect that it’ll start *cutting* this year. But if inflation comes in hot, such hopes could be dashed. 

Events

Coming up this week

__Pump anxiety returns…__ Higher gas prices aren’t in the rear view. Last week, OPEC+ (the world’s largest coalition of oil-producing countries) announced a surprise production cut. Oil prices surged on word that the cartel plans to slash output for the rest of the year. It could mean higher prices at the pump and even a broader inflationary spike, because the economy runs on oil. It’s a boon for oil titans like __Exxon__ and __Shell__, which have already enjoyed years of record profits on the back of rising prices. The cuts could also boost demand for US oil. 

__CiaoGPT…__ Italy temporarily [banned](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/31/technology/chatgpt-italy-ban.html) __OpenAI's__ ChatGPT, saying the chatbot collected personal data and could put minors at risk. It was the first Western country to boot OpenAI's tech, but as privacy concerns mount it might not be the last. Germany's considering a block, and the UK issued a warning on AI use. Now more EU countries (like Ireland and France) are in touch with Italian regulators as they consider dropping a $22M fine on OpenAI. Italy gave the company an April deadline to prove it didn't break data rules. 

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching

- __[Droid](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6pBiGKeLBn6LbaoUyMn5vL/articles/N3foBnA3JZMvEFNW0aTqh/):__ __Walmart__ said 65% of its stores will be automation-powered by 2026 (think: robo forklifts). Companies are investing in “efficiency” while cutting back on big bets like the metaverse and expenses like… staplers. 
- __[Exfoliate](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/76atOGd2Tik4m7ipZFuyy5/articles/6uT4NKdjmCoHTT1noJISiN/):__ __L’Oréal__ is lathering up $2.5B for fancy skincare brand Aesop (picture: $50 hand soap) in its largest acquisition. As Gen Z splurges on luxury beauty, niche brands are getting scooped by mainstream powerhouses.
- __[WWFC](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/mXK4xbJKOrYkTsz9xqJZi/articles/6hYEyMg8nrDcSmhliOKm76/):__ Live-entertainment stars __WWE__ and __UFC__ plan to merge, tag-team style, to form a $21B public company under __Endeavor__. The brands have shared talent and viewers for years, *brother*. 

ICYMI

Last week's highlights

🎓 College-hiring conundrum

__“I’m sorry, Dave”…__ I might take your job. __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT/)__ said it [expects](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/walmart-says-65-stores-will-be-serviced-by-automation-2026-keeps-forecast-2023-04-04/) 65% of its stores to be serviced by automated distribution centers by the end of 2026. America’s largest employer also recently said it would cut 2K+ positions at its ecomm fulfillment centers.

- __WAL 9000:__ Walmart pointed to some current distribution centers as a blueprint of what’s to come. Autonomous forklifts unload trailers and track merch for sprawling warehouses, while humans step in to fix problems that require a #sentient touch.

- __Robo-stores:__ Walmart has tested self-checkout-only stores in recent years, and plans to expand its use of the Alphabot, an automated system that picks and packs grocery orders.

- __Big impact:__ Walmart, which employs 1.6M workers in 5K US stores, said the automation push would reduce the need for lower-paid roles.

__The top line…__ is about the bottom line. As __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META/)__ boss Mark Zuckerberg said 30+ times on a recent analyst call, 2023 is “the year of efficiency.” Between mass layoffs and the shuttering of big-bet “moonshot” projects (goodbye, __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL/)’s__ WiFi balloons), companies are laser focused on profit. Google is cutting back on employee laptops and even staplers, while Walmart and __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__ are leaning into machines that create custom-size packages for shipments (think: tiny box for scrunchie delivery) to cut shipping and cardboard costs.

Shipping 101… 01010 (Jeff Schear/Getty Images)

Droid

__Efficiency doesn’t have to mean cutting back…__ Companies aren’t axing all their billion-dollar bets — just ones that don’t seem to equal long-term cost savings. While corps like __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS/)__ and __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT/)__ are [backtracking](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5oP8mbx6TJlK7JAyNs2Kx3/articles/3bQ9Cdk4F6yPB948KNCDQ/) on high-flying bets such as the metaverse, they’re still investing in efficiency. Cases in point: Microsoft’s $10B OpenAI investment and Walmart's plans to use some of its $15B capital spending budget to lean into automation tech.

Walmart sets its sights on automation as the “year of efficiency” marches forward

__Two tickets…__ one extra-large popcorn. Pandemic-battered movie-ticket sales are ready for their second act. The US box office [pulled](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/05/box-office-almost-back-to-pre-covid-levels.html) in $1.8B last quarter. While that's still down 25% from prepandemic levels (2019 had the second-highest-grossing box office *ever* with $11.4B in sales), it's a continuation of an upward trend. Last year, ticket sales were 34% below 2019 levels. One possible movie-night draw: more choices, from the blockbuster "Creed III" to the bear-buster "Cocaine Bear." 

- __Twist ending:__ The first-quarter box-office numbers could bode well for struggling chains like __[AMC](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMC/)__ and __[Cinemark](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CNK/)__, which reported falling sales and wider losses in the final quarter of last year. Both are expected to report next month.

__Babysitters on speed dial…__ It's not just the multiplex benefiting from night-out spending. __[Live Nation](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYV/)__ said in February that concert-ticket sales for the year had already passed 50M — a 20% jump from the same time last year. Restaurants and bars have seen a bump too. Through February, diners dropped more than $187B — up 19% on the year — as Americans stomached higher prices for date-night eats. Meanwhile, babysitters are in demand. A February report from __UrbanSitter__, which matches parents with sitters, found rates rose 10% last year.

Butter

__People aren’t working (just) for the weekend…__ but also for the week*day*. Despite (now cooling) inflation cutting into purchasing power, entertainment and night-out spending has remained a priority for many. Plus: the average US workweek has [dropped](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-05/americans-emulate-europe-and-work-less-posing-problem-for-fed) by 30+ minutes since the start of the pandemic, potentially freeing up time for midweek night-out (or [anytime](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5lXuNkgzgflLUu6tOdzLG7/articles/3DBkLIM6XSfufM8SzDn1Zp/)) splurges.

The US box office continues its rebound as night-out spending hits the town

4 of the top 10 free apps in the US App Store right now are owned by Chinese companies

🤖 Walmart hits autopilot

__April showers bring…__ May oil-production cuts. The world’s largest coalition of oil-producing countries surprised everyone on Monday with a doozy: the Saudi Arabia-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its oil-pumping allies (including Russia) agreed to curb production. OPEC+ plans to slash oil output by 1M+ barrels/day for the rest of the year, starting next month. 

- __Classic supply ’n’ demand:__ Oil prices had their slickest daily gain in over a year on Monday after word that supply would be lower. Energy stocks like __[Exxon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/XOM/)__, __[Chevron](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVX/)__, and __[Shell](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SHEL/)__ also got a bump.

- __Uh-OPEC:__ It’s a big blow to President Biden, who’s tried and [failed](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/04/politics/white-house-lobby-opec-oil-production-cuts-gasoline-prices-midterms/index.html) to persuade OPEC members to boost production, which would lower US gas costs (#PumpAnxiety).

- __Saudi Arabia__ said it was a precautionary move to ward off falling oil demand. Jitters over the banking crisis and a global recession have led to an oil selloff in recent months. 

__Bidin’ time…__ but there’s not much the pres can do. OPEC+ countries produce over half the world’s oil, and OPEC (minus the plus) accounts for 60% of global petroleum trade. Last year the Biden admin’s intense lobbying effort failed to dissuade OPEC from throttling production. The news could mean higher prices at the pump for consumers (gas futures spiked after the announcement). Since the economy runs on oil and gas (think: shipping, manufacturing) the cuts could also lead to a broader inflationary spike.

Pump anxiety returns (Thomas A. Ferrara/Getty Images)

Slick

__There’s a silver lining for everyone…__ The news will likely be a positive for OPEC countries and corporate oil titans, who’ve already enjoyed years of exorbitant profits on the back of rising prices. But it could *also* boost demand for US oil in Europe and Asia, and encourage non-OPEC producers to increase output. Plus: it might fuel support for clean energy.

OPEC’s cuts might mean higher gas prices, which could force other energy players to step up

__$40 exfoliating hand soap…__ spotted in trendy restaurant bathrooms. Cosmetics icon __L’Oréal__ is dropping $2.5B to [buy](https://www.ft.com/content/5405d709-8ec0-4da6-8640-a9107e322eaf) Australian skincare brand Aesop in its largest acquisition *ever*. Aesop’s aromatic body-care products are stocked in 400 stores worldwide in luxe retailers like __[Nordstrom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JWN/)__. L’Oréal wants to expand Aesop’s presence in countries like China, where beauty demand is high. 

- __Pricey GRWM:__ Aesop has more than doubled its sales since 2018, raking in over half a billion a year as people treat themselves with its $100 exfoliants and $40 balms.

- __Beautiful returns:__ Aesop could bolster L'Oréal's top-performing luxe division (which includes billion-dollar beauty brands like Lancôme, __[YSL](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PPRUY/)__, and Giorgio Armani).

__The price is in the #aesthetic packaging…__ Cosmetic giants have been scooping up smaller luxury beauty brands to woo the hearts (and wallets) of younger consumers. In 2019, __[Shiseido](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SSDOY/)__ paid $845M to buy cult skincare brand Drunk Elephant. Last year, __[Unilever](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UL/)__ spent $500M on Japanese skincare brand Tatcha. Both brands are staples on __Sephora__ shelves. Gen Z is willing to spend more on premium beauty products, and Zillennials are expected to make up 70% of luxury shoppers by 2025.

Lather

__Small brands can be a great foundation…__ for bigger returns. Curated brands like Aesop and Tatcha can help mass-market beauty biggies attract higher-spending customers. While L’Oréal has broad appeal with drugstore products like $8 mascara and CeraVe, it can earn fatter margins on $50 hand soaps. Meanwhile, Aesop can benefit from L'Oréal's global reach and supply chain. Analysts think there could be more beauty acquisitions ahead.

L’Oréal splurges $2.5B on Aesop as beauty giants bet on cult faves to glam up portfolios

🐕 *If bitcoin had a younger, wackier cousin who cosplayed as a dog…*

__[Dogecoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/DOGE/)__, aka doge, is a nearly decade-old cryptocurrency with an uncapped supply and a Shiba Inu meme for a mascot. Its price [soared](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/03/dogecoin-jumps-over-30percent-after-twitter-changes-logo-to-doges-symbol.html) Monday after __Twitter__ swapped its bird logo for a doge dog, fueling investor hopes that the platform might support doge payments. Last week, Twitter boss Elon Musk asked a judge to toss out a $258B lawsuit accusing him of pumping dogecoin's price.

Heard on the Block: "doge"

OPEC’s production cuts could mean higher gas prices, but there may be a silver lining

A record 9.9M viewers tuned in for the NCAA women’s basketball final, double last year’s audience

🛢️ Gas-price problems

__Flyin' over the top rope…__ __[World Wrestling Entertainment](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WWE/)__ said it planned to [merge](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wwe-to-combine-with-ufcs-endeavor-e9cee9dd?) with __[Endeavor](https://robinhood.com/stocks/EDR/)__, the biz behind the Ultimate Fighting Championship. If approved, the deal would combine two live-entertainment powerhouses — the scripted, high-drama WWE and the raw cage-fightin' fave UFC — into one publicly traded company worth $21B (new ticker: TKO — aka technical knockout). Last year WWE and the UFC pulled the same weight with $1.3B in revenue. 

__Doin’ it live…__ The power of real-time entertainment isn't limited to big-league sports. WWE matches have attracted major eyeballs, and networks have bought into their pre-choreographed storylines (no kayfabe required). __[Fox](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FOX/)__ paid over $200M/year to air WWE's Friday-night "SmackDown" and __[NBCUniversal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CMCSA/)__ reportedly paid $1B for rights to show WWE on Peacock. Streamers have increasingly made a play for the live prize, scripted or otherwise:

- __Hoping for overtime:__ __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN/)__ forks over $1B a year to stream __NFL__ games, __[Apple TV+](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL/)__ shells out for some __MLB__ games and __Major League Soccer__ matches, and __[YouTube](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL/)__ made a deal with the NFL to stream Sunday games.
- __LiveFlix:__ Last month __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX/)__ broadcast a Chris Rock comedy special live — a first for the streaming leader. And __[Disney+](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS/)__ streamed a live Elton John concert last year, while __[Paramount+](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VIAB/)__ showed the Grammys.

You CAN stream me (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

WWFC

__People love seeing it first…__ instead of reading about it later on __Twitter__. It’s more exciting to watch a big moment in real time — from a championship-winning shot, to a match-ending Tombstone Piledriver, to an awards-show gaffe. WWE and the UFC have long shared talent and viewers, and their combined expertise could be a powerful live-entertainment tag team. 

WWE and the UFC plan to join as a public company as live entertainment takes center stage

__Trusting the algorithm…__ to pick a brunch spot. Yesterday __Google__ [announced](https://techcrunch.com/2023/04/03/google-search-gets-new-travel-features-including-a-price-guarantee-tool-for-flights/) new features to make its flagship search engine more appealing, and surprisingly didn’t mention AI *once*. The search titan is hustling to make sure “Googling” remains a relevant verb. It found that 40% of Gen Zers prefer searching on __TikTok__ or __[Instagram](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META/)__ when looking for a lunch spot (aesthetic pics from peers > walls of sponsored blue links from corporate). The latest features reflect Google’s effort to remain indispensable: 

- __Google Stories?__ Searching for hotels and restaurants will now lead users to an Instagram-esque Story format for better vibe checks, including summaries of what visitors found noteworthy (think: intel about just how “partial” that ocean view really is).
- __Review-happy:__ Last week the company added a “Perspectives” feature that’ll highlight insights from experts under topics you’re searching.
- __Let it fly:__ A new “price guarantee” badge will show users when flights aren’t getting any cheaper. If prices continue to drop *after* you book, Google says it’ll pay you the difference.

__Battening down the hatches…__ Gen Z’s search shift, plus the increasingly common refrain that ads and spam sites are killing Google’s core product, seems to have lit a fire under the search heavyweight. It’s never been more important to stay competitive as __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT/)__ pushes its ChatGPT-fueled Bing search engine. Still, Google didn’t even name-drop its Bard AI bot in its Search updates. 

Searching

__The best offense is a good defense…__ Instead of making a run, Google’s protecting its home base: Search. It’s shelved most of its big-bet “moonshot' projects (think: WiFi balloons, techy contact lenses) as it navigates choppy waters and fresh competition. The fact that AI wasn’t mentioned in the updates suggests Google thinks it can win with things that ChatGPT *can’t* do, like real-time flight-price monitoring and curated restaurant reviews. 

Google makes social-friendly updates to Search as it focuses on protecting home base

WWE and UFC plan to join as a public company as live entertainment takes center stage

More than twice as many Americans support a TikTok ban as oppose it

🤼 WWE + UFC = tag team

__When Congress gives you lemons…__ make Lemon8. __ByteDance__ has been busy, and not just defending its social superstar, TikTok, from US lawmakers, who are [considering](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/20cy8V96PfEU6UKh8gt8ZF/articles/4aHj2SGTicN7e8FGVMqGwi/) a ban. The Chinese tech titan has *another* social app, dubbed Lemon8, which hit US App Store top charts this week. Described as a cross between __Meta's__ Instagram and __Pinterest__ (picture: style pics, shopping recs), Lemon8 is said to use the same recommendation algo powering TikTok's addictive feed. 

- __Slow squeeze:__ After introducing the app in 2020, in Japan, ByteDance grew Lemon8 to 5M monthly users last year by rolling it out in countries including the UK and Indonesia. 
- __Cre8tors:__ ByteDance paid US creators to juice up Lemon8 with #sponsored content, and some social stars are posting about Lemon8 on TikTok. ByteDance is reportedly [gearing up](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/29/technology/tiktok-lemon8-content-creators.html) to (officially) promote Lemon8 globally next month. 
- __Another slice:__ ByteDance also owns CapCut, a Tok-friendly video-editing app with 400M+ global downloads last year. 

__Lemon8 and left some crumbs…__ Lemon8's low-key launch contrasts with ByteDance's high-key TikTok tangle. A bipartisan group of lawmakers are pushing legislation that would give President Biden the power to ban (or force a sale of) TikTok — plus other apps seen as posing national-security concerns. Think: platforms that might share data with China or other sanctioned countries. POTUS urged Congress to pass the bill, but not everyone's on the ban-wagon: Sen. Rand Paul and Rep. AOC recently opposed a ban on free-speech grounds. TikTok users have also been posting fan content supporting the app’s CEO, who was grilled by Congress last month. 

Juicing those downloads (Jakub Porzycki/Getty Images)

SQUEEZED

__Whac-A-Mole never ends…__ Even if the US gov’t squashes TikTok, lawmakers might sour on TikTok-adjacent apps, leaving them forever chasing viral hits. Meanwhile, federal privacy legislation — which could address the root of many app-privacy concerns — has been stalled in Congress for years. As officials keep whacking moles, apps like Insta, __Snap__, and __Google’s__ YouTube stand to benefit if their competition gets smashed.

ByteDance pushes an Instagram-like app as DC battles over banning TikTok

__Your creation takes on a life of its own…__ We’re not talking Frankenstein. Last week, 1.4K+ tech leaders and AI researchers (including Elon Musk and __Apple__ cofounder Steve Wozniak) signed an open letter calling for a six-month pause in the race to train AI tools. They warned that ignoring caution could lead to “loss of control of our civilization” and said a pause would give the industry “breathing room” to set safety standards and understand threats. It could be hard to put the genie back in the bottle, though: __Microsoft__ and others have already started integrating AI. 

__Curfew incoming…__ Scrutiny’s rising over the effects of social media on kids. Last week Arkansas sued __Meta__ and __TikTok__, saying their apps harm mental health. Last month Utah passed strict laws aimed at protecting minors: social platforms must give parents access to teens' accounts and enforce a 10:30 p.m. curfew. Congress is eyeing legislation to protect kids on social, while some school districts are also suing social apps. Since half of US teens said they’re online “almost constantly,” the most susceptible group may also be the most bankable.

__Must add curly fries…__ __Lamb Weston__ has been cooking up success as Americans feast on french fries, no matter the economic weather. Last quarter the potato powerhouse hit a record $1.3B in sales and raised its annual forecast as fry demand sizzled. FYI: LW makes $$ both from grocery-store frozen aisles *and* from restaurants (think: corporate customers like __McDonald’s__ and KFC parent __Yum Brands__). But even as dining out declines, LW says its “fry-attachment rate” is still above prepandemic levels as people keep adding fries to their orders.

__Eggstra-pricey Easter…__ Big Egg’s big holiday is upon us, but you might wanna stick to chocolate. __Cal-Maine__, America’s largest egg producer, reported an 8X quarterly profit jump as prices yolked up. The average price of a dozen was $4 in February (up from $2 a year earlier), adding merit to those “eggs as a symbol of wealth” [memes](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/20/dining/egg-inflation-meme.html). Supply is at a three-year low as the industry deals with the avian flu (though Cal-Maine said its chickens weren’t affected). Americans are expected to spend a record $24B on Easter this year, including $7.3B on food. 

- __[Split](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5oP8mbx6TJlK7JAyNs2Kx3/articles/1mdNRN6dZ2iRagPyzjalxb/):__ __Alibaba__ (aka the __Amazon__ of China) is splitting its biz into six independent companies. Keeping units separate could help execs focus on industry-specific growth — and avoid more regulatory scrutiny. 
- __[RT](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/77yJwmBscjyOo60LxT6mzG/articles/14xhMV3r36sMCfBXKRoENP/):__ Starting April 15, only paying blue-check __Twitter__ subscribers will have their posts recommended to non-followers and be allowed to vote in polls. Since Tweeters are used to having that free, it could backfire and alienate users. 
- __[Disno](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5oP8mbx6TJlK7JAyNs2Kx3/articles/3bQ9Cdk4F6yPB948KNCDQ/):__ __Disney__ laid off its 50-person metaverse team as IRL macro conditions lead companies to ditch their pricey meta-ambitions. Last month __Microsoft__ and __Tencent__ shuttered meta projects to cut costs. 

As DC battles over banning TikTok, ByteDance pushes Instagram-like app Lemon8

Texas was home to 6 of the top 10 largest-growing US counties last year

🍋 ByteDance makes Lemon8

__NYC’s rush hour…__ has moved from the streets to the skies. The FAA announced plans last week to reduce airport congestion in NYC and DC this summer by cutting flights into the hubs. A big issue: NY’s air-traffic-control staff (which is hired by the FAA) is at only 54% of capacity, compared to a national average of 81%. Now __[JetBlue](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JBLU/)__ plans to [cut](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-29/jetblue-set-to-cut-ny-flights-during-very-busy-summer) a chunk of its flights just before peak flying season. 

- __Smaller apple:__ JetBlue’s prepping to axe up to 10% of its flights in busy airports like JFK and LaGuardia. That could mean fewer route options for your summer vacay.

- __True blues:__ JetBlue could take a bigger financial hit than rivals who aren’t based in NYC, because nearly 60% of its flights go in and out of the NY area daily.

- __Request received:__ __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL/)__ and __[United](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UAL/)__ also offered to cut some of their NY-based flights, but only if regulators promise to give the routes back after the busy season.

__Four-hour flight…__ an hour on the tarmac. Last year about 2.7% of all US flights were canceled, the highest rate in a decade (apart from pandemic 2020) — and JetBlue had the highest percentage of cancellations. Weather was a key factor, but staffing shortages didn’t help. To improve reliability, Delta and __[American](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAL/)__ have agreed to multiyear raises for their pilots, while JetBlue splurged on new staff and planes. But even if the airlines are better staffed, it’ll be hard to fly high without enough FAA *airport* employees to get ’em off the ground.

Big Apple gets big traffic (Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)

Grounded

__Sometimes you have to off-load to take off…__ While fewer routes would mean fewer options (and likely higher prices), airlines are trying to avoid more cancellations and delays by being proactive. By making congestion-fighting cuts now, they could avoid angry customers later. Last summer, 350 flights/day were delayed in NY, partly because of the air-traffic-control shortage. Congestion would be 45% worse this year without industry-wide cuts, JetBlue CEO Robin Hayes said, citing the FAA.

JetBlue’s axing up to 10% of its NYC routes as airport shortages cloud a busy travel season

__Working the count…__ no strikes. Major League Baseball players usually get the spotlight, but this week the minor league’s making headlines. The players making up the MLB’s 5.5K-person minor-league system tentatively struck a [collective-bargaining agreement](https://www.wsj.com/articles/mlb-minor-leaguers-collective-bargaining-agreement-aff37cc4?mod=pls_whats_news_us_business_f) with the league, a milestone in baseball history. Players and owners could ratify the five-year deal by as soon as today.

- __Peanuts to Cracker Jacks:__ The agreement’s most drastic change is minimum player pay, which will at least double. Season salaries will jump from $4.8K to $19.8K at the lowest level, and from $17.5K to $38.5K at the highest level before the majors.

- __Strike one:__ Last year minor leaguers used social media to express disdain about their paychecks and living conditions, with some saying they stayed in cramped apartments with several players sleeping on air mattresses.

- __Whiff:__ In July the MLB agreed to pay $185M to settle a federal class-action suit brought by minor leaguers over wage violations.

__Bullpen billions…__ Despite last season’s World Series drawing its second-lowest TV audience *ever* (and a 99-day player lockout), the MLB hit a revenue record, pulling in a ballpark $10.8B. The league’s national media-rights renewals with Fox, TBS, and __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS/)’s__ ESPN brought in $1.8B, a $250M/season boost from previous deals. On the streaming side, new deals with __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL/)__ and __[NBCUniversal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CMCSA/)’s__ Peacock brought in an additional $115M. Sponsorship agreements were up too.

Changeup

__You can’t ignore the talent pipeline…__ In the corporate world, businesses invest heavily in recruiting, internships, and training to keep their talent supply chains healthy. To succeed, the sports world has to do the same. While it's estimated that only 10% of minor leaguers will play in the majors, the 120-team system is the foundation for talent in the highly lucrative league. Players like José Bautista have transitioned from farm-team obscurity to MLB leaders.

The MLB agrees to a hefty pay bump with the minor league, investing in its talent pipeline

🤖 __Techy…__ __[Ethereum](https://robinhood.com/crypto/ETH/)__'s [Shanghai](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7g8WyDpRHlBW4XKb0ArYq9/articles/3YIdBYT3OuwOf9IqZp0aMK/) update is [expected](https://decrypt.co/124812/ethereum-staking-tokens-shanghai-upgrade-gets-date) to take place on April 12. If successful, validators who [staked](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3Zy7nWCeAzQOjEeKFD5zwW/articles/7A7vAvybFvXFNBUcPqFsGU/) ether will be able to withdraw (and sell) the millions of ETH currently locked up as collateral — potentially affecting prices.

💰 __Costly…__ Matt Damon said he took the (now infamous) "fortune favours the brave" ad gig to [raise](https://decrypt.co/124936/matt-damon-did-crypto-com-ad-due-down-year-clean-water-foundation) money for his clean-water nonprofit. The 2021 __Crypto.com__ commercial premiered shortly before a crypto-wide selloff.

🤔 __Sus…__ The [CFTC](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5tWO7MybQ6hruclDYZW4bS/articles/2IF7a4zafGF2KA53v4mz4z/) sued __Binance__, [accusing](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/27/business/binance-cftc-lawsuit.html) the world’s largest crypto exchange of illegally letting US customers trade crypto derivatives (which the regulator says it has authority over). If it prevails, the CFTC could force Binance to abandon the US market.

BRAVE

The Crypto Catch-Up…

In 2013, 64-year-old Diana Nyad became the first person to swim 110 miles from Cuba to Florida without using a shark cage for protection

✈️ JetBlue’s NYC blues

__Blue-check anxiety…__ Big changes are coming soon to the blue bird. On Tuesday, __Twitter__ boss Elon Musk [said](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65095684) that, starting April 15, only verified subscribers (think: people who pay $7/month for blue check marks) will have their posts recommended to others in the “For You” stream. Read: *non*-paying users’ posts will be shown only to their followers. 

- __No viral:__ After backlash, yesterday Elon [added](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/mar/29/twitter-to-no-longer-only-promote-paid-for-accounts-after-backlash-elon-musk) that accounts you follow will also be shown in For You. But it sounds like posts from non-paying users that you *don’t* follow won’t be featured — meaning it’ll be nearly impossible for those users to go viral.

- __No vote:__ Non-paying users also won’t be able to vote in polls starting on April 15 (that “privilege” will be reserved for Twitter Blue subscribers).

- __No check:__ Last week Twitter said it would remove the verified status of “legacy accounts” (think: pre-Elon-era checks) starting April 1 — unless those folks pay up. 

__Hard PaaS…__ The new Twitter Blue sounds like paying for “popularity as a service” (some are getting [roasted](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/twitter-blue-shame-memes-1234628528/) on Twitter for subscribing). But it’s all part of Elon’s revenue-driving and bot-fighting plan. Twitter’s ad sales are sagging and growth has been tough, so Musk’s trying to diversify revenue with subs. Yet the blue-check benefit of Twitter Blue wasn’t enough to attract droves of users willing to pay $7/month. Now Elon’s raising the stakes.

Retweeting is about to get messier (STR/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

__Revenue chasers can chase people away…__ Twitter’s chasing subscription revenue with Blue-exclusive perks, but not by adding perks — it’s doing it by *taking away* long-standing features from existing users. Tweeters are used to blue check marks, voting in polls, and having their posts recommended for *free*. Removing those could backfire by alienating users.

Twitter’s April overhaul highlights Elon’s revenue-driving plan — but could backfire

__Put another iPhone on the tab…__ This week __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL/)__ [launched](https://www.ft.com/content/fca35d55-8a6d-4945-a7bf-893d7e937258) its long-promised entry into the crowded buy now, pay later (BNPL) market. Apple Pay Later (APL) lets eligible users split an Apple Pay purchase (capped at $1K) into four payments over six weeks with no interest. Apple’s payment products fall under its services biz (think: App Store, Apple TV), which last year made up a fifth of its $394B revenue. APL has lots of competition:

- __Buy now, pay whoever:__ __Klarna__, __Afterpay__, __[Affirm](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AFRM/)__, __[PayPal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PYPL/)__, and __Sezzle__ all offer BNPL. Affirm's shares fell more than 7% after Apple’s announcement.

- __Popular pay:__ Nearly half of merchants already let users pay later online. And as of last August, over a quarter of surveyed Americans said they had used BNPL.

__Trouble now, more later…__ The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), created after the ’08 financial crisis, said last year that it planned to [regulate](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/35lzRs5F4ifGlwO2EylF4f/articles/5EJsoxWGwhdhZYCpcJ7lj/) BNPL companies, which could translate to costly safeguards and added credit checks. Its goal: protect consumers from things like unclear loan terms and over-borrowing.

- __Inflation-stretched shoppers__ are increasingly relying on BNPL to pay for basics like groceries. And in 2021, 11% of BNPL users paid a late fee for missed payments.

- __Bad debt:__ This month, a CFPB report found that 69% of BNPL users don’t pay off their monthly credit-card balances.

BNPA

__Chase after trends and you might slip…__ APL was originally set to launch in September, but was delayed for technical reasons. Meanwhile, the BNPL boom has fizzled. Klarna's valuation dropped 85% last year as it posted a $1B loss. Last month Affirm laid off almost 20% of its employees after disappointing earnings. Still, with APL available for many of the merchants that already accept Apple Pay, it could have an accessibility edge over established BNPL players.

Apple launches BNPL as the micro-loan industry falls under the regulatory spotlight

43% of Americans say that money, as a value, is “very important” to them, ranking it higher than patriotism, religion, and having children

🏦 The great rate-hike divide