__*Breakfast is back, baby*...__ At least, according to Mickey D’s index. __[McDonald’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD)__ is adding baked goods to its permanent menu for the 1st time in eight years. The star pastries: apple fritter, blueberry muffin and cinnamon roll. This news might sound like empty calories – but it's actually a pretty big deal for McD's, which has focused on [*trimming*](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-mcdonalds-idUSKBN21D060) its menu during the pandemic:

- __Breakfast was the most disrupted meal__ of the corona-conomy. You ditched the Starbs bagel for WFH cereal, so a.m. sales at major chains plunged.
- __Lost breakfast traffic__ accounted for *over half* of McDonald’s US sales declines in May. Meanwhile:  __[General Mills](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GIS)__ and __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP)__ thrived as you [stocked](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5ZMX8rSbgb8xnNJMPBF9JM/articles/3bCrUxRRyFig8myZmlZwys/) on Lucky Charms and Quaker Oats again.  

__Breakkie is the most important meal of the day...__ for fast-food restaurants. Chains from Taco Bell to Shake Shack have [dished out](https://www.wsj.com/articles/fast-food-chains-heat-up-breakfast-fight-11571678889) big to make it a priority. __[Starbucks](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SBUX)__ and __[Dunkin'](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DNKN)__ have been upselling protein-stuffed breakfast sandwiches. Wendy’s breakfast launched nationwide before lockdowns, and it already made up 8% of the chain's sales last quarter.

_"Nope— I hit Mickey D's before_"

McMuffin

__A donut-shaped recovery?...__ There are lots of ways you can gauge how the economy is doing, from unemployment numbers to GDP data. Donuts might be worth adding to the list. Rising chain-store breakfast sales suggest people are commuting more and hoarding less. The fact that McDonald's and Taco Bell are [investing](https://www.delish.com/food-news/a34272440/taco-bell-breakfast-returns/) to revive breakfast could be a sign of sweeter times.  

McDonald's brings back baked goods after 8 years: it's the donut-shaped recovery

__Sapphire and faded jeans...__ __[Levi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LEVI)__'s didn't quite get its dreams last quarter, but it *did* offset big corona losses with a profit-boosting [52%](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/06/levi-strauss-co-levi-q3-fiscal-2020-sales-fall-27percent.html) surge in e-commerce. Digital sales made up 1/4th of the denim icon's revenue (vs. just ~1/10th last year). Total sales still fell 27%, but Levi's stock popped after earnings on the positive momentum. Also: 

- __Women’s apparel surprisingly thrived,__ making up 37% of total sales, up almost double from 2015. Brand ambassadors like Hailey Bieber have been keeping Levi’s well-dressed (not distressed).

__Jeanius idea...__ Levi's just launched a "recommerce" [site](https://www.secondhand.levi.com/) for second-hand jeans/jackets. You drop off your old Levi's at a store  in exchange for a gift card. Levi's cleans and sells them, and the lucky buyer doesn’t have to dig through  flea market bins  for that Insta-perfect pair. While this could threaten demand for new jeans, it's actually a win-win:

- __Bankable:__ According to Levi's, 60% of Gen Z consumers shop second-hand.  Levi's can cater to them without the extra cost of making  more clothes. That way *Levi's* gets paid instead of Poshmark.
-  __Green:__  If everybody bought one item used instead of new, we’d save 449M pounds of waste/year, Levi's says. Denim recycling is the perfect fit to boost Levi’s rugged, sustainable image (#neverwashthem).

Unwash

__Avoid the "discount spiral of death"...__ By controlling the full “life cycle” of its denim, Levi's can reduce overstocking on pricey new clothes. When inventory piles up, companies discount — that  hits profits. Levi's CEO says he's "cautiously optimistic” they won’t tumble into never-ending promotions. With recommerce, Levi's could cash in on the same pair of hip-huggers five times over.

Levi's saves itself with e-commerce — now it wants your old jeans for "Recommerce" 

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

🥯 McDonald's brings back Breakfast Wars 

__The only jam in this store...__ is apple. Like a bad-tempered college RA, __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__'s shutting down the speakers (*except for its own*). Apple has long sold 3rd-party hardware on its site — now it's giving "outsider" audio devices the boot. It's also telling employees to remove them from physical stores, leaving 0 memories of the brands it's breaking up with:

- __[Sonos](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SONO)__’ smart speaker had to move out of Apple's stores, pushing Sonos stock down 7% yesterday.
- __[Logitech](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LOGI)__’s speakers also got the boot, driving the stock down 6% while "Sad Tunez" played.
- __Bose__'s headphones and speakers were dumped, too. 

__*You came in like a wrecking ball*...__ For a while, there was [speculation](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/22/sonos-stock-spikes-today-on-apple-acquisition-rumo.aspx) that Apple could acquire Sonos, just like it snatched up __Beats__ in 2014 (#putaringonit). The potential of an Apple-cquisition boosted Sonos stock. Apple just killed that dream, so Sonos stock plunged. Apple is clearing out its drawers to make space for its new (Apple-only) audio babies:

- __AirPods Studio:__  Apple's 1st over-ear headphones could turn up at its big hardware [event](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/06/apple-will-announce-the-next-iphone-on-october-13/) on October 13th.
- __HomePod:__ Apple is also expected to drop a smaller version of its smart speaker.


Apple to every 3rd party provider: "It's not you... it's me."

__Apple is moving toward ultimate self-reliance...__ It's a strong, independent company (FYI: the most valuable *in the world*), so it's taking a DIY approach. In 2014, it stopped selling __Fitbit__ wearables after Apple Watch launched. This year, it dropped __Bang & Olufsen__ devices. Soon, it'll [start](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53142989) making Macs with its *own* Apple-crafted chips (sorry, __[Intel](https://robinhood.com/stocks/INTC)__).

Apple cuts ties with Sonos and other audio retailers — it's going 100% DIY 

__No Fake Friends...__ __[The RealReal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/REAL)__ cares more about "no fake bags." The luxury consignment startup can sniff out a knockoff Celine Mini purse from a mile away (the *C* looks a little off). It IPO'd last year, bringing its online marketplace for verified 2nd-hand luxury goods public. It's now worth $1.3B and has over [17M](https://www.vogue.com/article/gucci-the-realreal-partnership-secondhand-consignment) users, though sales have struggled during the pandemic (no one sees your Yeezys on Zoom). How it works:

- __For sellers:__ Those Louboutin pumps cost you $900, so you're probably not dropping them off at Goodwill. TRR checks that they're legit, prices them, then sells them for you.
- __For The RealReal:__ TRR takes a big [cut](https://www.therealreal.com/commission-chart) of your sale — generally around 40%-50%, depending on the item price/category. Then it pays you the rest in commission. 
- __For buyers:__ Buyers want that stainless steel Rolex at a discount, and want to be sure that it's not a Fauxlex — though, TRR [doesn't](https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardkestenbaum/2019/10/23/if-fake-bags-are-being-sold-on-the-realreal-how-can-the-resale-business-ever-succeed/#ac1f0366acb3) have a perfect record catching imposters.

__Like a vintage Birkin bag...__ TRR just [landed](https://www.vogue.com/article/gucci-the-realreal-partnership-secondhand-consignment) a big fish. It's launching a clutch partnership with __Gucci__, offering a dedicated Gucci e-shop with consignors’ items *and* merch provided directly by Gucci itself. Also: for every “G”-stamped item sold, TRR will plant a tree (claaassic "throw in a tree" move). TRR stock [jumped](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/why-the-realreal-stock-jumped-nearly-12-in-early-trading-today-2020-10-05) on Gucci's nod of approval.

Birkin

__The trend is your friend...__ *More like frenemy*. For years, designer labels have resisted second-hand markets for fear that they'll hurt full-price sales. Luxury brands have even [burned](https://www.newsweek.com/luxury-brands-prefer-burn-millions-dollars-worth-clothes-over-letting-wrong-1032088) millions of dollars worth of unsold clothes to remain exclusive. Since labels didn't disrupt themselves, companies like TRR and __Thredup__ sprang up with more sustainable, more accessible fashion. Now, Gucci wants in on that trend (well — at least the *sustainable image* part).


Gucci partners with The RealReal — it's a thrifty shift for the luxe label

🎶 Apple does DIY audio 

__Christmas came early for Elon...__ __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ delivered a record number of vehicles last quarter, accelerating its recovery after the pandemic slowdown. It's still (very) far from its [goal](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4SQQIJGVDV1ZMsRwO23SPV/articles/KG8dXhyGvKBAcw3zvZLNj) of 20M vehicles/year, but the growth is impressive:

- __Tesla delivered 139K vehicles__ during the quarter ending September 30. That’s a 44% increase from the same quarter *last* year.
- __~90% of deliveries__ consisted of the $35K+ Model 3 or the $50K+ Model Y crossover. *Just 10%* of deliveries consisted of the $75K+ Model S or X.

__Sounds S3XY...__ That's Tesla Model S, 3, X, and Y (classic Elon humor). Deliveries last quarter were *dominated* by Tesla's new cheaper models, which cannibalized sales of the original luxe models. For most people, the pricier models are just too... pricey. *Especially* when they can now become Tesla owners through a cheaper (still sweet) ride.

- __Cannibalization:__ The terrifying term for when a company's new product is so attractive that it devours sales of its other products. 
- __The con:__ Companies fear cannibalization because it often steals sales from more profitable products. 
- __The pro:__ Lower-cost versions of products drive more sales volume and guard against competitive disruption (#disruptyoself).


Devour

__Tesla achieved cannibalization success...__ Last year, cannibalization was a *problem* for Tesla. In July 2019, Tesla [posted](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3zxtMPGvxRsDKcOXjFQyhC/articles/3oavs96KNk4v8YXxGs47Y1/) record deliveries but *lost* $408M because its top-selling Model 3s sold for less than what they cost to make. Now that Tesla has reduced the cost of car batteries, it can actually *profit* on those Model 3 & Y sales — it  [posted](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6511HaDUMXpAxjp2bEBL6w/articles/30QY0VGpvgwP9J9BKSTkLB) 4 straight quarters of profit, and is expected to report a 5th this month. 


Tesla hits a delivery record thanks to its cheaper models (it's cannibalizing itself)

__Hit 'em with the double entendre...__  __Cooler Screens__ just raised [$80M](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/cooler-screens-series-c/) to bring interactive screens to cooler aisles. Basically, the idea is to turn your 7-Eleven fridge doors into digital [billboards](https://www.coolerscreens.com/demo). While it may sound like a Facebook ad stuck on a fridge, Cooler Screens has two key differentiators:

- __In-store:__ Most retail sales still come from physical stores, but there aren't actually ads *in* stores (they're all chilling on __Amazon__ or __Facebook__ #adparty).
- __IoT-enabled:__ The screen knows when your Walgreens is out of Mountain Dew, so it'll showcase Coke instead. Or it can highlight the tub of Häagen-Dazs that literally just went on sale. 

__Cooler story, bro...__ If this sounds like something out of a "Black Mirror" episode, that's because it kind of is. Cooler Screens offers merchants AI-powered inventory tracking, plus real-time pricing and sales data. 

- __*For customers*:__ According to its CEO, you could ask the screen to show you all the vegan ice cream, or to see the calories in a DiGiorno frozen pizza (579). 
- __Also:__ In addition to flashing nutritional facts, the screen lets you make digital payments on the spot. It doesn't collect your personal info, though (*thaaanks*). 


_Cooler Screen control center: "Hit her with the Mountain Dew"_

Future

__Point-of-Sale ads are powerful...__ If you're in a grocery store, you're there to buy something (RIP free samples). Cooler's ads are getting you  at the exact place/time when your purchasing intent is hottest. Cooler says that products behind digital doors sell 2X to 10X more. It's already in 50 __[Walgreens](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WBA)__, and is planning to expand to 2.5K more.

Cooler Screens is turning cooler aisle doors into AI-enabled digital billboards

__Not your usual cocktail...__ On Friday night, we learned that President Trump had tested positive for COVID-19. While he was hospitalized at Walter Reed National Medical Center (he was admitted Friday and left yesterday), he was treated with a high dose of an experimental antibody "cocktail" from American biotech company __[Regeneron](https://robinhood.com/stocks/REGN)__. 

- __The treatment isn't FDA-approved yet__, but it's in the final phase of human testing. Trump's doctor made a "compassionate use" request to get individual approval from the FDA.
- __Regeneron stock soared 7%__ on Monday on news of the presidential treatment, and is up 62% for the year. 

__Warp-er Speed...__ In July, Regeneron received $450M as part of Trump's "[Operation Warp Speed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2yiQjAPUMFj1LAGzjjtiR0/articles/5QsTxDVI2hgwiGCa3QkB6p)" to quickly develop COVID-19 vaccines and treatments — the US has invested over $10B in Warp Speed so far. If Trump recovers, that high-profile success could help fast-track approval for Regeneron's treatment. 

- __Regeneron [says](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/05/investing/trump-regeneron/index.html) it's on track to make 300K doses__ of the treatment by the end of 2020. FDA approval could mean big business – especially now, when COVID cases are rising as colder weather drives people inside.

Treat

__This could be the ultimate Earned Media win...__ Earned media is basically free publicity (the opposite of paid media advertising). If Regeneron gets credited with *helping save the US President's life*, that's a significant unpaid win. It would be way more valuable to boosting brand perception than any ad Regeneron could buy.

Regeneron stock soars on Trump's dose — the ultimate PR opportunity

🚗 Tesla cannibalized itself

__The report card is in...__ and the US might have to retake Recovery 101. The US added a lower-than expected [661K](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/02/massively-concerning-jobs-report-sends-a-signal-that-the-economic-recovery-could-be-fading.html) jobs in September. Since this was the last jobs report before the election, let's take a stroll down memory lane:

- __3.5%:__ The unemployment rate in February, when the only masks we've ever worn are charcoal sheet masks. 
- __14.7%:__ The unemployment rate in April, after COVID lockdowns hit. The US economy lost nearly 22M jobs in March/April. 
- __13.3% to 11.1%:__ The unemployment rate fell from May to June as businesses reopened. The US added 2.5M jobs in May and *4.8M* jobs in June.
- __10.2% to 8.4%:__ Unemployment continued to decline as the US added 1.8M jobs in July and 1.4M jobs in August.

__Which brings us to September...__ 661K new jobs means a big slowdown in recovery. The unemployment rate fell to 7.9%, but that's mainly because 1.1M people dropped out of the labor force in September. [865K](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/02/865000-women-dropped-out-of-the-labor-force-in-september-2020.html) of those people were women. Many believe this was driven by the fact that kids are Zooming into school.

- __The good news:__ The US has added 11M jobs since May. The economy is [expected](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/30/us-gdp-q2-2020.html) to have bounced back in Q3 from a record 31% plunge in Q2.
- __The bad news:__ [12.6M](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf) Americans are still unemployed and Congress *still* hasn't agreed to a new stimulus package.


_Economy Parent-Teacher conference: "Good news or bad news 1st?"_

Money

__Even with a vaccine, economic medicine will be necessary...__ The $2.2T stimulus in March was largely responsible for driving recovery, but most of those benefits have now run out. With 9 companies in the final phase of testing, the [race](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4vk973LuhKuULDy2YKL4WH/articles/D1lnvqMuFutEeJ9XdQtTa) for a COVID-19 vaccine is hot. Even so, the CDC [says](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-trump-administration/) vaccines likely won't be widely available to Americans until *summer 2021*. With the pace of recovery slowing, Congress should try to put party differences aside to inject some aid ASAP.

The State of the Recovery: unemployment, slowing job growth, and the 2nd stimulus

__Pass the AUX cord, mate...__ __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ stock jumped 5% for the week on two pieces of bloody good news. First, a London court [granted](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/47HXzr0bmqpHqzYPs79Mjf/articles/5XnQ0woqmNe2nNRpPn2bIT) it an 18-month license to keep operating in its largest Euro hub (3.5M riders). Uber was on London's naughty list due to app flaws that let drivers use fake identities, but the judge now considers it "fit and proper" to keep rolling. 2nd: Uber's Freight logistics biz [raised](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/02/uber-freight-raises-500-million-valuation-rises-to-3point3-billion.html) $500M at a $3.3B valuation, showing Uber can succeed outside the (complicated) world of ridehail.

__Back from a deep sleep...__ __[Bed Bath & Beyond](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BBBY)__ stock soared 40% last week after the retailer [posted](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2GgmBzs6jDxEcWawl7lLBR/articles/3HqQgaiTqBrQPWUKh2nyL4) its 1st same-store sales gain since 2016. The dorm legend swung to a $218M profit after losing $139M  in the same period last year. Online sales soared 89% as e-nnovation investments paid off. This year, BB&B launched: "buy online, pick up in-store," curbside pickup, and (last week) same-day shipping with __Instacart__ and Shipt. Investors thought BB&B was declining (like __[Macy's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/M)__) — this earnings changed the narrative.

Highs

Who's up...

__On the DL...__ __[Palantir](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PLTR)__ stock fell 13% during its 1st publicly traded week. The secretive software company crunches data for big customers (the CIA was an early investor). Instead of the usual IPO, Palantir went public via a rare [Direct Listing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5v5XVtc1gTDCrGNZIuANTa/articles/4melLm5tbEOhCjxLIJrNEi/) (no new shares created, no fresh cash  raised). After 17 years, Palantir is still hugely [unprofitable](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/29ds6WlAgMlOhg7Oijd1cN/articles/5F3QZdPR4hudHfED23iam3/) — it lost $580M in 2019. Now its growth depends on a few massive players: its top 3 customers make up over 30% of its sales.

__Unmagical...__ __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS)__ is laying off 28K employees across its Parks & Experiences division, which made up ~40% of its sales in 2019. Last quarter, Parks sales [plunged](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5v5XVtc1gTDCrGNZIuANTa/articles/3h0LZtnjqoGjCvvpPglyvl/) 85%. Now some Disney parks have reopened with limited capacity, but the big CA ones are still shut (read: Disney's still losing major $$$). The only thing Mickey's smiling about: Disney's streaming networks (Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu) now have over 100M subscribers, and live sports are finally back.

Lows

...and who's down

💰 The State of the Recovery

__But I ordered a Coke...__ Tell that to __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP)__. The beverage giant [bounced back](https://www.wsj.com/articles/pepsico-sales-rise-as-beverage-segment-improves-11601550380) to growth last quarter. People are driving more, meaning more Pepsi pit stops at 7-Elevens and gas stations. Pepsi's drink sales grew 6%, up from a 7% *plunge* the previous quarter. Meanwhile: snack sales continued to thrive as we have Pepsi's Quaker Oats for breakfast, its Rice-A-Roni for lunch, and its Cheetos for Netflix. 

__No one is carding Pepsi...__ After 127 years of being soft, Pepsi is considering going hard, [according](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4377233-pepsico-inc-pep-ceo-ramon-laguarta-on-q3-2020-investors-q-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single) to its CEO. __[Coca-Cola](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO)__ just [teamed](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/29/coca-cola-molson-coors-partner-for-us-launch-of-topo-chico-hard-seltzer.html) up with __[Molson-Coors](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TAP)__ to launch its 1st alcoholic drink in a while: Topo Chico Hard Seltzer. But alcohol makes things complicated...

- __"The three-tier system"__ of alcohol sales in the US means that boozy drinks must be made, distributed, and sold by  *separate* companies. 
- __That's why there's no Smirnoff store.__ You're picking up vodka at __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ or Big Joey's Liquor (the sellers). Smirnoff-maker __[Diageo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DEO)__ has to partner with other companies (the distributors) to get it to Walmart and Joey's.

_Pepsi: "You're not gonna card me, are ya?"_

Chug

__If Pepsi gets in on a trend, it’s a post-trend...__ The bigger and older a corporation is, the less quickly it's usually able to move. White Claw launched four years ago and controls over [half](https://www.t4.ai/industry/hard-seltzer-market-share#:~:text=The%20leading%20brand%20in%20the,Natural%20Light%20Seltzer%20with%202%25) the US hard seltzer market, followed by __[Boston Beer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SAM)__'s Truly. Now Coke and Corona-maker __[Constellation Brands](https://robinhood.com/stocks/STZ)__ are hard seltzer-ing too. If Pepsi *does* go hard, it'll have to do something special to stand out from the crowded sparkling playing field.

Pepsi's drink sales bounce back — now it's exploring the wild world of alcohol

__Getting a 2nd life...__ If this retailer were a video game, it would be called *Bed Bath & Respawned*. __[Bed Bath & Beyond](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BBBY)__, the company famous for dorm decorations, massive coupons, and being featured in an early 2000s Adam Sandler movie, *is back*. The stock surged 25% yesterday on a brand-reviving earnings report:

- __BBB had its 1st same-store sales gain since 2016__ and swung to a $218M profit (vs. a $139M *loss* for the same quarter last year).
- __BBB added 2M new customers__, many of them young and spending more per transaction on decorative pillows, patio furniture, and even dorm decor.

__This isn't just about "House Hype"...__ BBB was actually *late* to benefit from the lockdown "[House Hype](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7Fl0kcKPHzNEVEVwnee0Zp/articles/3djXYQJYytx1qKMDTR9yG1/)," following the success of __[Lowe's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LOW)__ and __[Home Depot](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HD)__. BBB thrived thanks to digital innovation: 

- __Online sales soared 89% for the quarter__. Now BBB is planning to close 200 of its 1.5K stores as it continues to e-nnovate.
- __Last week,__ BBB rolled out same-day shipping in the US in partnership with Instacart and Shipt. 
- __Earlier this year,__ BBB launched a "buy online, pick up in-store" option along with contactless curbside pickup.


_Bed Bath is back, baby_

Wake

__This is a narrative-changing earnings report...__ Investors thought Bed Bath & Beyond was stagnant and dying. Until this report, the stock was worth over 80% less than it was in 2015. While it's still worth 67% less than the 2015 price, these earnings convinced many investors that BBB can succeed in a modern, remote world. So the stock majorly soared.

Bed Bath & Beyond stock surges 25% after it snags its 1st sales win since 2016

__Packaged like a Glossier moisturizer...__ actually a hair loss ointment. __Hims__ is an online health company that ships erectile dysfunction meds and hair loss supplements. Except they're packaged so minimalistically and with so much Millennial pink that they look more like Sephora products. It also has a "Hers" brand — think BC and biotin gummies. Now:

- __Hims is going public via SPAC.__ That's a company that goes public for the sole purpose of one day acquiring an actual company (mission accomplished). 
- __The deal values Hims at $1.6B,__ and the merger will yield it a fresh $280M in cash to continue shipping its Millennial medicine. 

__Just what the doctor prescribed...__ One SPAC-quisition, ASAP. Hims is going public just three years after launching (for reference: it took __[Teladoc](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TDOC)__ 13 years). But with IPOs on track to have their [best](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ipo-market-parties-like-its-1999-11601052419) year ever and telehealth thriving, Hims is speeding up plans to go public. The CEO [says](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/01/hims-a-direct-to-consumer-health-company-is-going-public-via-spac.html) it compressed a 2-3 year roadmap into just a few months with multiple product launches.


Raise

__Hims has reached recurring revenue bliss...__ Hims has 260K medication subscribers, and 91% are recurring. That's 234K customers shelling out money each month to treat chronic conditions or regular needs. Not only does Hims have high sales frequency — it also has high sales *stickiness*. Those chronic conditions are unfortunately... *chronic*.

Millennial health startup Hims is going public at a $1.6B valuation

🥤 Pepsi could be going hard 

__Throw in AirPods and a Starbucks latte...__ and the Canada Goose fit is complete. __[Canada Goose](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOS)__ stock popped 8% yesterday because it's the corona-conomy winner that came in from the cold. The stock just got a confidence-boosting analyst [upgrade](https://www.barrons.com/articles/canada-goose-stock-pops-on-upgrade-highlighting-strong-sales-51601479290), now that *winter is coming* and outdoor activities seem here to stay:

- __On Friday,__ NYC Mayor de Blasio [announced](https://nypost.com/2020/09/25/de-blasio-nyc-outdoor-dining-plan-permanent-year-round/) that outdoor dining will be a year-long thing. 8M New Yorkers can devour pizza al fresco all winter long. 
- __New Yorkers love:__ Eating at restaurants and complaining about the cold. That's where Canada Goose comes in with its fur lined $1K jackets. 
- __Fun (depressing) fact:__ You could buy 31 shares of Canada Goose stock for the price of one parka. 

__*It's gonna be a long, cold winter*...__ Love Island, Upper East Side. Canada Goose's sales [fell](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/30/why-canada-goose-jumped-12-today/) 63% last quarter compared to last year and the stock slipped 30% from January to early September. Tight wallets, closed stores, and no travel hurt its fur-lined pockets. Buuut: the stock is up 30% this month as Northeasterners prep for a pandemic winter.


"_Why haven't you ordered your Canada Goose yet?!"_

__Canada Goose could thrive in a K-shaped *and* V-shaped recovery ...__ If the economic recovery turns out to be V-shaped, as President Trump [says](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/30/economy/k-shaped-economic-recovery-trnd/index.html), then most Americans will quickly recover economically (and wealthy Americans will continue to buy $1K parkas). If it turns out to be K-shaped, as Joe Biden says, then only wealthy Americans will quickly rebound (*and will still buy $1K parkas*). But the recovery could also take neither of those shapes.

Canada Goose stock pops because it's the early winner of January date night

__The opposite of magical...__ __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS)__ is laying off 28K employees across its Parks and Experiences division — around 67% are part-time workers. Disney’s parks in Florida, Paris, and Shanghai have [reopened](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/29/disney-to-layoff-28000-employees-as-coronavirus-slams-theme-park-business.html) with limited capacity, but its major CA parks are still shut. That's a massive hit to the entire biz.

- __Parks & Experiences accounted for ~40% of Disney's sales__ in 2019. Last quarter, that division's sales [plunged](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2OI8lgJuwoXeEWwTh0ji5K/articles/1uVcb0z1fYvdVqzyBXQ9U8) *85%* and Disney lost over $3B.
-  __Even though some parks have reopened__, the limited foot traffic and Candy Apple sales aren't enough to make up for Disney's massive losses. 

__And then there's "popcorn Disney"...__ While we don't have the official numbers yet for the [$300M](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/8rq6xjStVvulqFP5BMmt0/articles/b8XbOfc5reKyOjOrvsVdC/) budget "Mulan," we *do* know that Disney  postponed almost all of its movies scheduled for release in 2020. Marvel blockbuster “Black Widow" was pushed back to May 2021. That's *another* big hit to Disney's wallet.

__There's a light at the end of Splash Mountain...__ While Disney's parks and movies divisions are struggling, its streaming and cable network segments are thriving. Disney's streaming networks (Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu) now enjoy over [100M](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/disney-dis-q3-2020-earnings.html) subscribers, and Disney's ESPN is finally back with live sports to watch. That means more subscription and ad revenue to soothe Mickey's woes. That's why Disney stock is up since its (brutal) earnings in August.

Disney lays off 28K employees as theme parks remain closed/barely open

__Like a DM vs. a $10 Papyrus greeting card...__ Direct Listings are generally cheaper and faster than IPOs. When a company chooses to take its stock public via DL instead of IPO'ing, they aren't creating *new* shares to sell. Owners of private stock (early investors and employees) unleash their *existing* shares to the public, so the company isn't raising any fresh cash. Yesterday, two companies took this simpler route to going public: 

- __[Palantir](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PLTR)__ is the [secretive](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/29ds6WlAgMlOhg7Oijd1cN/articles/5F3QZdPR4hudHfED23iam3/) software company that crunches data for big clients like the government. The stock [closed](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/30/palantir-goes-public-pltr-starts-trading-on-the-nyse.html) slightly lower than the opening price.
- __[Asana](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ASAN)__ is the team task management tool where you get anxiety by looking at a board of color-coded objectives. The stock ended the day slightly up.

__*I'm different, yeah I'm different*...__ DLs are rare, but it's even *more* unusual to see non-consumery companies do them. Only two well-known companies, __[Slack](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WORK)__ and __[Spotify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__, have DL'd (until yesterday). Their stocks soared on Day 1 since we're all familiar with what they do. Not so much for Palantir and Asana.

- __Pros:__ DLs don't involve paying big fees to investment banks. They don't dilute the value of existing stock because: #nonewstock.
- __Cons:__ Those investment banks that advise on IPOs also help [build up](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/20h2lIyDiEHNUxZmIBTfPu/articles/3sU0d3u3Bv3EujmS6dVQ7U) interest in the stock from investors and can guarantee a certain amount will be sold. DLs don't get that promo service.

Direct

__Going public is turning into an "à la carte" menu...__ and companies are taking advantage of the options. Before, there was 1 way to go public: the expensive prix-fixe menu IPO (no, you can't swap fish for the meatballs). Companies have been increasingly looking to DLs and [SPACs](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2IlouyJBkMnca9pyPTVgEl/articles/22jXt0jb5fz7MVzts4f1gG) to go public without paying fees to banks. Private companies will be following Asana and Palantir's stock to gauge the success of this new option.

The Unusual Suspects: Asana and Palantir go public through Direct Listings

❄️  Canada Goose bundles up 

__Snagged some prime real estate...__ next to prime rib. __[Beyond Meat](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BYND)__ just secured a whole lot more space for its plant-based patties in the fresh meat aisle. Beyond stock jumped 9% after the company announced it's expanding to 1.6K *more* __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ locations. Ever since its Walmart debut in 2015, Beyond has grown its patty and sausage presence in the retailer's fresh and frozen aisles. Now, it's surpassing plant-based rival __Impossible__:

- __5,300:__ The  [number](https://corporate.walmart.com/our-story/our-locations) of Walmart stores in the US, including Sam's Club.
- __2,100:__ The number of Walmart stores that sell Impossible meat.
- __2,400:__ The number of Walmart stores that will sell Beyond meat, up from just 800 *before* this deal.

__Well done on the price cutting...__ That's how Beyond likes its goals cooked (don't settle for medium-rare). Beyond wants to “make plant-based meat accessible to all." But then it realized that its plant meat costs *2X as much as regular beef*. 

- __With the meat shortage we saw early on in COVID__, Beyond aggressively tried to narrow the big price gap to get in on the action. Enter... 
- __“The Cookout Classic”:__ Beyond's 1st semi-hoardable, relatively affordable offering. Think: a 10-pack of patties at $6.50/pound vs. a 2-pack at $12/pound.
- __Heating up:__ If Beyond and Impossible start competing on price at Walmart, we can expect the "real meat" difference to narrow even further. 


_A burger so mainstream, it's everyone's Halloween costume_

Planted

__Beyond is passing the mainstream test...__ Beyond's real goal is to get most meat-eaters eating its pea protein patties. Early adopters were vegans and vegetarians, but this Walmart deal proves *it has expanded beyond that*. Walmart is the keystone of accessibility and mainstream-ness in America. Read between the grill lines: Beyond must be performing well with shoppers if Walmart decided to triple the number of stores that offer it. 

Beyond Meat jumps on a juicy Walmart win: it passed "the mainstream test"

__Pizza fix, wine fix, Netflix, Stitch Fix...__ One of these does not belong in the corona-conomy. __[Stitch Fix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SFIX)__  is the online personal styling service that uses stylists and algorithms to send you curated boxes of outfits each month (*are you boho chic or sporty grunge?*). Stitch Fix *was* a rare profitable young techy start-up — now, it's back to unprofitable basics:

- __Stitch Fix lost $44M last quarter,__ compared to a $7M profit during the same quarter last year. Shares plunged 14% after the update last week.
- __“Undoubtedly not what it was pre-COVID":__ Stitch's [thoughts](https://www.wsj.com/articles/stitch-fix-is-nearing-the-end-of-its-vertical-runway-11600855381) on the overall demand for clothes. Your personal stylist is whichever sweats came out of the dryer first.

__Drop the last name...__ Like Madonna, but not at all. Stitch Fix's customers have been increasingly dropping the "Fix" (aka: the stylist-curated subscription part that it's known for). Earlier this year Stitch intro'd "direct buy," offering the option to buy individual clothing items. While this makes Stitch Fix way less interesting (and Fix-y), it provides:

- __More price flexibility:__ People aren't as willing to pay for a box of blazers and floral maxi skirts that they'll probably only wear to the grocery store.
- __More choice specificity:__ Stitch's women’s activewear sales surged [350%](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/stitch-fix-sfix-earnings-q4-2020.html#:~:text=Stitch%20Fix%20shares%20plummet%20after%20personal%20styling%20service%20swings%20to%20a%20loss,-Published%20Tue%2C%20Sep&text=Stitch%20Fix%20reported%20a%20fourth,per%20share%2C%20a%20year%20ago.) last quarter compared to last year as people traded work fits for workout fits. 


Stitched

__The value is in the "Fix" — and Stitch could lose it...__ While direct buy is helping Stitch coast, the auto-ship Fix subscription is the real money-maker. Monthly recurring revenue is what makes companies like __Netflix__ beloved by investors. Yesterday, __Amazon__ [launched](https://techcrunch.com/2020/09/28/amazon-launches-a-4-99-per-month-personal-shopper-service-for-mens-fashion/) a $5/month ‘personal shopper’ Prime service for men (it already has a women's one). Amazon can afford to offer lower prices *and* better data insights, throwing another wrench into Stitch's "Fix" biz.

Stitch Fix customers are basically dropping the "Fix"

 🍔 Beyond's juicy mainstream win

__But does this affect our rating?...__ __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/uber)__'s experience studying abroad in London hasn't been fun — It lost its license (twice) and has been blamed for "a pattern of failures." Last November, Uber appealed so that it could keep operating royally in its biggest Euro market (3.5M riders, 40K drivers). This week it finally got a breakthrough:

- __The upgrade:__ A London judge is [granting](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/28/917882295/uber-can-keep-operating-in-london-magistrate-rules) Uber an 18-month license to officially operate (pin it up on the fridge).
- __The kind words:__ Uber is now considered "fit and proper." Sounds nice.

__Things got sketchy in-app...__ Uber was originally de-licensed in London because unauthorized drivers were still able to use the app (you expected *Timmy* in the Honda Civic, but *Tammy* rolled up). That happened on 15K trips. Now Uber has installed AI facial recognition to make sure Timmy is actually Timmy.

Granted

__Uber's transformation is complete...__ The Uber of today is dramatically different than the pre-IPO Uber of years ago. Since going public in May 2019, Uber has invested in self-betterment — This big legal win in London represents a *return* on those investments. 

- __Pre-IPO Uber:__ *Rule-breaking, international-obsessed, Travis-led, corporate drama-filled, ride hail-focused.*
- __Post-IPO Uber:__ *New CEO, diversified with food delivery, quit international markets, innovatively partnered with public transportation.*

Uber stock jumps 3% because London says it's "Fit & Proper"

__You shall pass...__ With the trillion dollar tech giants blocking the view, it's easy to miss __[Roku](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ROKU)__. The little streaming dongle company controls 43M living rooms with its smart TV tech — and yesterday it [unveiled](https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/28/21459521/roku-streambar-soundbar-compact-streaming-bluetooth-spotify-connect-tv-audio) the Roku Streambar. But to get to know Roku, compare it to its top rival, __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__:

- __The dongle:__ Roku's streaming stick starts at $50, adding Netflix, YouTube, Spotify and all the other streaming apps to any TV. Apple's equivalent "stick" (Apple TV) starts near $180.
- __Market value:__ Apple's total [stock market value](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/GByCbiOluG2kcWs1AF6m5/what-is-market-capitalization/) is almost 100x bigger than Roku: $2T vs. $23B.

__Who composed the score?...__ Asks nobody after finishing the movie. Still, Roku's latest device adds what the other streaming devices don't: premium sound. At $129, Streambar is a low-priced way to bring streaming to your living room while shaking the furniture with four 14-inch speakers.

Stream

__Roku knows what this winter will have...__ no movie theaters. Picture things in 4 months: a 2nd wave of COVID and everyone stuck inside because of the cold. You won't even be able to escape to the theater to watch the latest Marvel or Star Wars flick (Disney [postponed](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/23/disney-films-delayed-covid/) all its movies by about a year). Roku sees this and thinks Americans  might love a movie theater experience at home, courtesy of Streambar.

With movie theaters likely closed all winter, Roku's latest device steps up

"_Re-approved in London, baby"_

🍿 Roku's movie theater dongle

__Sounds like a mashup of *1984* + *The Circle*...__ Bezos was clearly doing some reading this summer. __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__'s hardware strategy has achieved the creativity level of a dystopian novel (congrats). At its big hardware event on Thursday, the Zon [unveiled](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/amazon-hardware-event-live-updates.html) new products just in time for the holidays. If your wishlist includes giving your home ears, a mouth, and all-seeing eyes, Amazon's got just the thing. In order of least threatening to borderline terrifying:

- __Echo:__ A new line of orb-shaped Echo speakers with improved response time for Alexa voice commands (she's listening). The kids version looks like an adorable panda.
- __Echo Show 10:__ Amazon's new smart display video monitor *tracks you as you move* (for pacing on Zoom calls). You can also use it as a remote camera "to check in on the dog."
- __Always Home Cam:__ Amazon's new $250 Ring camera is a [drone](https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/25/21455197/amazon-ring-drone-home-security-surveillance-sidewalk-halo-privacy) that *flies around your house recording you*.

__Stealing your roommate's pad-thai...__ Don't even think about it — Bobby is Always Home, even when he's out. The new drone cam uses a map of your house to *independently* fly around and patrol strange noises (hmm) when activated. Then, it casts the footage back to your phone. Amazon bizarrely calls this “privacy you can hear” (because: drone sounds).

_Amazon is always watching_

Surveil

__Convenience = control...__ The more convenient a product is, the more consumers have increasingly let it control their lives. __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ controls our communication lives with iPhone. Amazon controls our shopping lives with Prime. We're willing to give over our personal data (and our $$$) because of the immense convenience these products provide. But Always Home Cam tests the limits of privacy concerns over actual value.

Amazon's latest (shocking) product is a flying drone roommate

__*Dunkaroos are back*...__  __[General Mills](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GIS)__ makes Lucky Charms, Cocoa Puffs, and everything else you ate when you were 12. GM's sales popped 10% last quarter — surprising, since cereal sales have fallen each year for the last decade. Instead of hitting the bagel shop pre-work, you're pouring Cheerios at home. But GM's terrified you'll return to pre-pandemic eating ways, so it's doing some "[Relevant Innovation](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4SQQIJGVDV1ZMsRwO23SPV/articles/2W2x5vLb0ilPIaKx0pwfkW/)" with new products like: Starburst-flavored Yoplait and Go-Gurt Slushies (niiice).

__Not the chewy bar...__ __[GoodRx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GDRX)__ is a price comparison app for prescription drugs that offers pharmacy discounts. It raised a healthy $1B in its IPO from "VIP" institutional investors. Then, the stock soared 53% Wednesday after going public on the Nasdaq (for the rest of us). Unlike most tech IPOs, GoodRx is *profitable*. In the 1st half of 2020, it made almost as much profit as it did in *all of 2019*. It's the #1 most downloaded medical app because it's [filling](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4SQQIJGVDV1ZMsRwO23SPV/articles/231DSeRmMIaG6mxLu3tUCS/) two major healthcare gaps: lack of affordability and lack of simplicity. 

__Just can't seem to hash it out...__ __[Aurora Cannabis](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ACB)__ had a buzzkill year. The Canadian pot producer lost $2.5B last year and expects another sales decline this quarter. Shares [sank](https://www.barrons.com/articles/aurora-stock-plunged-30-because-it-is-growing-more-marijuana-than-it-can-sell-51600894979) 30% on Wednesday to a 4-year low and are down ~80% this year. Aurora has grown much more cannabis than there's actually demand for, and lower prices hurt sales. The pandemic-buying [pop](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4ccVNBL1WDcK4FkFwPcBis/articles/Sf59MKWnXH64agCd3vvPy) appears to be over, so rival __[Canopy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CGC)__'s stock also dipped.

__They see me rollin'...__ Rough week for __[Nikola](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKLA)__. First, short-seller __Hindenburg__ dropped a bombshell report [accusing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/dwPOufsBBQ4JnjSiVXZ9Q/articles/3raWsLXrWrHZhkC11zCnoM/) the e-truck maker of being "an intricate fraud." Example: a truck that Nikola described as "In Motion" in a video was actually just... *rolling down a hill*. Then, the SEC and the DOJ started investigating. *Then*, Nikola's founder resigned as Exec Chairman, potential partners reportedly stalled talks, and the stock got downgraded. Finally, __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ claimed Nikola stole its truck designs. The stock plunged 22% for the week.


🏠 Amazon is Always Home

__Swoosh swoosh...__ Despite a global crisis, __[Nike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKE)__ was its own Most Improved Player last quarter. Sales slipped less than 1% compared to last year and profit actually [*increased.*](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/nike-nke-reports-fiscal-q1-2021-earnings-beat.html) That's a big glow up from June, when Nike posted a loss and 38% sales plunge. Nike's stock is up 8% in the last week on the performance.

__The OGs are the real MVPs...__ What fascinated us most: Nike is cashing in big on its vintage shoe styles. Whenever there's a slump, Nike can fall back on its trusty OGs. That's a major advantage that iconic brands have over newer players (no one wants Lululemon's 2001 leggings).

- __Nike's Air Force 1__, born 38 years ago, saw a major resurgence last quarter. AF1 is the most-purchased shoe of 2020, [according](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/why-nike-air-force-1-162633889.html) to the NPD Group (and your Insta feed).
- __Air Jordans__, 1st released in 1984, were the only highlight of Nike's sad June quarter: the Jordan brand hit a [record](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2020/06/26/china-and-the-last-dance-propel-nikes-jordan-brand-to-record-36-billion-in-revenue/#54f078a15057) $3.6B in sales thanks to surging demand from China and "The Last Dance," a Jordan documentary on ESPN.


_'80s vibes only_

Kicks

__Nostalgia is one of the greatest marketing weapons...__ *especially during hard times*. Nostalgic products evoke a sense of comfort, reminding us of better times. Plus: they don't require much experimenting or creative work. Demand is clear, making a flop much less likely. And it extends beyond just fashion:

- __Food:__ __[Campbell Soup](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CPB)__ and __[General Mills](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GIS)__ have been pandemic thrivers, putting new spins on OG products like Dunkaroos and Go-Gurt.
- __Media:__ This summer, we've pretty much exhausted every possible sequel, prequel, and remake imaginable. __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS)__'s leading the charge on that.


Nike is a Most Improved Player, but its retro sneakers are the real MVPs

__EV parking only...__ They're a familiar sight in parking lots, especially if you live in CA. __ChargePoint__ is one of the world's oldest and largest electric vehicle charging networks. It operates 115K orange charging ports, mostly in  North America. Its customers include Best Western, LinkedIn, UCSD, and the city of Long Beach (of course). Good news for clean energy fans...

- __Chargepoint is going public__ at a $2.4B valuation. It's getting acquired by a [SPAC](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2IlouyJBkMnca9pyPTVgEl/articles/22jXt0jb5fz7MVzts4f1gG/), a company that goes public for the sole purpose of acquiring a private company. 
- __Congrats, [Switchback Energy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SBE):__ Your SPAC-y purpose in life has (almost) been achieved. The deal is expected to close at the end of the year.

__America runs on Dunkin'...__ *but EVs run on charging stations*. One of the main barriers to EV adoption (besides price), is fear that your car will run out of battery with nowhere to charge it: aka Range Anxiety. Gas stations are always 0.3 miles away, but charging stations aren't always so close. 

- __ChargePoint can use the money it raises__ from going public to further scale. It's aiming to hit 2.5M ports by 2025 — aka: 2.49M *more* than it currently has.
- __More ChargePoints =__ more EV adoption = more sales for EV carmakers. That's why electric hopefuls like __[BMW](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BMWYY)__ and Mercedes-owner __[Daimler](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DMLRY)__ are also investors. 


Electrify

__The 1st-mover advantage is clutch...__ especially when it comes to EV infrastructure. Yesterday, California [announced](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-ban-gas-cars-gavin-newsom-mandates-that-all-new-vehicles-be-zero-emission-by-2035/#:~:text=California%20will%20ban%20the%20sale,date%20to%20be%20zero%2Demission.) that it'll ban the sale of new gas-powered cars and trucks starting in 2035. The world is moving toward EVs, and the ones who scale charging networks first will have the biggest advantage. Charging infrastructure investment will hit $190B by 2030, according to ChargePoint's CEO.