__Get DJ D-Sol in here...__ __[Goldman Sachs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GS)__ is celebrating shockingly good earnings — good thing its CEO David Solomon (aka: DJ D-Sol) is [tight](https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/28/business/hamptons-concert-goldman-sachs-ceo-chainsmokers/index.html) with The Chainsmokers. 

- __Profit more than doubled__ last quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier, clocking in at $4.5B — and a whopping $9.5B for the full 2020 year. 
- __And it's not thanks to your savings account...__ Investment banking revenues jumped 27% last quarter, while Equities revenues soared 40%.

__On a scale of Main Street to Wall Street...__ Goldman is basically the show *Billions* (aka: Wall Street Extreme) — at least compared to retail-friendly banking peers like __Citi__, __BoA__, and even __JPMorgan Chase__. Apart from its Marcus savings account, Goldman doesn't really cater to us regular folks. Here are some of its big profit puppies:

- __Investment Banking:__ Helping companies like __Airbnb__ and __DoorDash__ sell new shares in an IPO, making mergers/acquisitions happen, underwriting debt, and loans. 
- __Asset Management:__ Managing stock portfolios for pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, universities, and the mega-rich.
- __Equities Trading:__ Making big transactions happen by buying/selling large positions in stocks. Goldman makes money from the bid/ask [spread](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/6ttKzSPbxOq6P32lBN7IF0/what-is-an-ask/#Stock_Market_Spreads).

_When DJ D-Sol drops the beat_

Double

__But investors don't really care about the past...__ They're obsessed with the future. Despite those expectation-crushing earnings, Goldman shares actually *fell* yesterday. Also yesterday: Biden [picked](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/18/economy/biden-wall-street-gensler-sec-elizabeth-warren/index.html) Gary Gensler to lead the SEC. He's an ex-Goldman banker turned hardcore Wall Street regulator (known as one of the toughest under Obama). Gensler + a Dem-controlled Congress could mean more red tape to reign in Big Banks' power — and possibly Goldman's future profits. 

Goldman doubles its profit and crushes earnings — but investors aren't celebrating

__One small step for man...__ *one giant leap for plant-based meat?* __Impossible Foods__ is the privately held rival of publicly traded __[Beyond Meat](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BYND)__. Last summer, Impossible raised $200M, got its sausage in Starbucks, and graced 7.5K Burger Kings with its planty Croissan'wich. This latest headline is different — but maybe even more significant:

- __Former UN climate head Christiana Figueres__ will be joining Impossible's board of directors, [according](https://www.axios.com/former-unfccc-executive-director-christiana-figueres-impossible-foods-f288fa9a-77e8-4802-b52a-18c0aa29f9ae.html) to Axios.
-  __As a creator of the Paris climate agreement__, Figueres sees the food industry as "one of the main levers of change" on global warming. That's perfect, since...
- Impossible [calls](https://www.impossiblefoods.com/impact-report-2020) itself an "audacious yet realistic strategy to turn back the clock on climate change and stop the global collapse of biodiversity" (*whoa*).

__pea.protein21 wants to join the convo...__ When we think of companies solving environmental issues, we generally think of EV makers and solar companies — not soy patties. But alt-meat has *three* narratives which people buy into: eating animals  is morally bad, eating animals is "unhealthy," and/or eating animals (especially cows) is *unsustainable*.

- __Impossible + Beyond's burgers__ generate ~90% less greenhouse gas emissions and require dramatically less water & land to grow than beef.
- __Sustainable energy takes the environmental spotlight,__ but Figueres' move could help highlight the impact of food and agriculture, too.


Sustain

__It's a perfect time to grow the conversation...__ Biden has pledged $2T to creating a "clean energy future," which includes subsidies/incentives for green tech. Figueres' experience could help loop plant-based meat into the convo with lawmakers, companies, and consumers. It seems far-fetched, but if public schools and corporate cafeterias got incentivized to buy plant-based, companies like Impossible could take on even fresher relevance. After all, one in four Americans are already [cutting](https://news.gallup.com/poll/282779/nearly-one-four-cut-back-eating-meat.aspx) back on meat-eating.


Impossible's UN climate hire could level up the plant-based conversation

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

 🍔  One small step for man...

__If stimulus packages were superheroes...__ Enter: “The American Rescue Plan" — Biden's $1.9T proposal to save the US economy. It’s nearly as big as the *first* stimulus we got when Covid/lockdowns hit in March and the US lost 22M jobs. It's more than *twice* as big as the 2009 financial crisis recovery package, and the $900B stimulus that Congress passed last month. Some of what's included:

- __$1.4K direct payments__ to most Americans, bringing the total relief to $2K (including December’s $600 deposits).
- __$400 extra in weekly unemployment__ benefits, extended through September.
- __$350B in state and local government aid__, to help pay for teachers, firefighters, police, vaccine distribution, and other public services.
- __$20B for a national vaccination program__. The  rollout so far has been... underwhelming.
- __$15/hour federal minimum wage__ — more than double the current minimum. 

__Part I...__  This is the first of two big spending initiatives Biden plans to seek during his early days as prez. These proposals align with Democrats’ “bottom-up” economic policy. A quick refresher:

- __Democrats__ tend to favor more government spending and taxation to fund public programs that make society more equitable by expanding the social safety net. Think: the healthcare reform and financial regulation passed during the Obama admin in 2009/2010. 
- __Republicans__ generally look to private sector innovation and tax cuts to support economic growth, job creation, and higher wages. Think: the sweeping tax reform Republicans passed in 2017/2018, which slashed taxes for corporations and lowered individual tax rates.

__Channeling Schoolhouse Rock...__  Biden’s proposals still have to be turned into bills and passed by Congress to actually happen. Democrats' slimmest possible majority in the Senate could mean compromises — most legislation needs 60 Senate votes to pass.


_The Stimulus Reloaded (blue pill edition)_

Money

__This could happen...__ but the package might be much smaller. Both Dems and Republicans believe more aid is needed: 10M+ Americans are still unemployed, and the US started *losing* jobs again in December. But some GOP lawmakers are [uncomfortable](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/01/15/biden-stimulus-gop/) with the $4T+ already spent in response to the pandemic. The national debt increased by almost *$7.8T* under President Trump, clocking in at $27.8T — larger than the size of the US economy. The Fed has been increasing the money supply to keep interest rates low so that America can keep borrowing $$$. But with interest rates ticking up again, some are concerned about inflation + higher taxes down the line.

Biden's big stimulus: what's in the $1.9T proposal, and what it means for the economy

__The TLDR:__ Biden's "Build Back Better" [plan](https://joebiden.com/clean-energy/) is aggressively focused on clean energy and infrastructure. With a slim Congressional majority, Biden might not be able to push through *all* the spending. Buuuut: some initiatives might actually fly with Republicans, while others could be pushed through exec orders.

- __Green energy...__ Three words: "clean energy future." Biden has pledged $2T to clean energy innovation, partly through sustainable infrastructure and subsidies for green tech. Think: more EV charging stations, tax credits for buying electric, and incentives for wind and solar. Subsidies could encourage more delivery companies to buy e-trucks from companies like __[Workhorse](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WKHS)__, __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__, and __Rivian__. On the wind and solar side, companies like __[NextEra Energy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NEE)__, __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__, and __[First Solar](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FSLR)__ could benefit from Biden's goal of a carbon-free power sector by 2035.

- __Infrastructure...__ could see some serious cash flowing in. Biden's plan pledges to "mobilize American manufacturing" to build a modern infrastructure — think: roads, bridges, buildings. Construction icons like __[Caterpillar](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CAT)__ and __[John Deere](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DE)__,  and concrete-makers like __[Martin Marietta Materials](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MLM)__ and __[Vulcan Materials](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VMC)__, could benefit from the building frenzy.


Highs

Who's (potentially) up...

__The TLDR:__ A Dem-controlled government doesn't mean everything will be a piece of blue cake — especially with a 50/50 Senate where VP-elect Harris holds the tiebreak. But it *does* mean legislation will be easier to pass than it is now (with a Dem-controlled House and a GOP-controlled Senate). Soo...

- __Big Tech...__ could see [bigger](https://apnews.com/article/technology-50e69e921c6699a3edbd730c12292436) regulation efforts. Think: legislation targeting consumer-data privacy, halting Big Tech takeovers, and potential breakups of tech "monopolies," like __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__, and __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__. Also: reform to Section 230, which protects social media companies from being liable for users' posts. A year ago, Biden even called for 230 to be repealed. Losing 230 immunity would be brutal for __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ and __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__ — they could get sued every time someone shared something harmful or false (aka: often). 

- __Big Banks...__ could get hit by hands-on, progressive regulation. Gary Gensler, Biden's [expected](https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-old-foe-of-banks-could-be-wall-streets-new-top-cop-11610773211) pick to lead the SEC, will likely move to reign in Wall Street. And incoming Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown [wants](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/11/sherrod-brown-senate-banking-chair-457692) government-administered bank accounts — and tight financial regulation. Meanwhile: Biden wants to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% (Trump cut it from 35% to 21%). America's 10 largest banks could see their combined yearly profits slashed by [$7B+](https://www.thebanker.com/World/Americas/US/What-would-a-Biden-presidency-mean-for-US-banks). And investment banking sales could fall for bigshots like __[JPMorgan Chase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JPM)__, __[Morgan Stanley](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MS)__, and __[Citi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/C)__ if capital gains taxes are raised for rich clients. One bright spot: Biden's stimulus could help banks avoid loan losses by helping borrowers.

Lows

Who's (potentially) down...

💰 Inauguration Edition: $$, markets, and the economy

__Not a Spice Girl...__ But Posh Spice would be proud. __[Poshmark](https://robinhood.com/stocks/POSH)__ is an online marketplace famous for used clothes, from $6 H&M tanks to $1K Louis bags. Yesterday, Poshmark stock made a splashy debut on the Nasdaq  — we're getting DoorDash/Airbnb [flashbacks](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3dRtKJ3pIUtnX1yDSLVTJY/articles/47zqImTPv4BiAjpmDbiqv4). 

- __Quick refresher:__ VIP investors buy at the IPO price. Based on public demand for the stock, it could open higher/lower when it actually hits the market. Spoiler... 
- __Poshmark stock *more than doubled*__ from its $42 IPO price, opening at $97.50 and closing up 140%. 

__Thrifty is the new trendy...__ Like __[Etsy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ETSY)__, Poshmark benefited from the pandemic e-thrifting surge. Sales jumped 28% to $193M in the first nine months of 2020 — and it even managed to turn a profit. From __ThredUp__, to __[The RealReal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/REAL)__, there's no shortage of places to buy used clothes online. So what makes Poshmark different?

- __It's a social network...__ Posh lets you follow people and brands on a "shopping feed." You can like/comment/share that Lulu Vinyasa Scarf. 
- __It thrives on engagement...__ In 2019, 87% of items purchased on Poshmark were preceded by a like, comment, or offer on its marketplace.
- __It's *obsessed* with community...__ Posh also hosts themed "Posh Parties," live virtual shopping events with curated "showrooms."


_Post-Posh Party_

__Social commerce's secret power = ad targeting...__ "Social commerce" sites are prime real estate for marketers because: 1) your engagement reveals your tastes, and 2) *you're there to shop*. That's partly why __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ [intro'd](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7Fl0kcKPHzNEVEVwnee0Zp/articles/7GbosmnxcsEDfjk2yPdKh6/) "Shops" on Insta. The more a company knows about your splurging habits, the more it can personalize ads. If Poshmark started selling ads, it could make significant $$$ from companies looking to target its 32M (mostly Millennial/Gen Z female) users.

Poshmark stock doubles after IPO — it's social media, but for ecommerce

__Hire more fry cooks...__ Chip demand is extra hot right now. __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__ literally had to [shut](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/11/tech/ford-plant-shutdown-computer-chip-shortage/index.html) down a plant this week because it can't find enough computer chips for its cars. Semiconductors are the backbone of electronics, powering everything from your smartphone to your washing mashing. Only problem? We've got a global semiconductor shortage on our hands.

- __All the WFH'ing...__ ate up all the chips. From Chromebooks, to PlayStations, to cloud computing everything — our pandemic needs called for *a lot* of semi-conducting.
- __That new car for the 'burbs...__ helped US car sales [rebound](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/11/tech/ford-plant-shutdown-computer-chip-shortage/index.html) quicker than expected. Ford isn't the only one who's chip-hungry: the average car contains 50 to 150 chips.
- __All those headlines about 5G...__ hyped up demand for 5G smartphones, which (spoiler) pumped up demand for 5G chips. 

__Why so cyclical?...__ The semiconductor industry is driven by innovation cycles. In order to survive, companies have to constantly churn out new products as they race for the fanciest chip. By the time they've scaled production of the hottest new chip, there's a *hotter* new chip on the market... and then they have overstock. Meanwhile: chip size has shrunk to less than a nail clipping, while the costs of production have surged. 


Heat

__The industry is consolidating to prep for the next lull...__ between chip innovations. Chip companies are merging to cut costs, scale faster, and stay profitable (#synergy). In September, __[Nvidia](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NVDA)__ said it was buying chip designer __Arm__ for a whopping $40B. Then in October, __[AMD](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMD)__ agreed to buy chip maker __Xilinx__ for $35B. And __[Qualcomm](https://robinhood.com/stocks/QCOM)__ just announced a $1.4B acquisition of a 5G chip startup. In this super high-volume, high-tech industry... you need to stay huge to stay competitive.


The Great Chip Shortage (it's kind of affecting everyone)

👛  Poshmark's double IPO pop  

__Straight outta CES...__ __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__ stock hit an all-time high after the Detroit OG unveiled some not-so-OG projects at the Consumer Electronics Show. The real bright spot was BrightDrop, a new unit focused on all things electric delivery — from EVs to route optimization software. GM is pitching it as a one-stop-shop for delivery fleets. Here's what BrightDrop's dropping in 2021:

- __"Electric pallet":__ The EP1 is basically a techy container with wheels. It moves packages over short distances (think: from delivery van to your door). 
- __Electric van:__ The zero-emission EV600 gets 250 miles per charge, and is designed to load/unload EP1s. __[FedEx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FDX)__ has dibs on the first 500. 
- __Not for 2021...__ GM [unveiled](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/gm-shares-hit-record-high-on-electric-van-and-flying-car-potential-plans.html) insane-looking designs for flying taxis and self-driving shuttles (feat. scissor doors).

__*If you’ve got the battery*...__ you've literally got the power. GM's getting it from its next-gen battery system, Ultium. It's as intense as it sounds: GM says Ultium gets up to 450 miles per charge, at nearly 40% less cost than its current batteries. GM has spent billions to make Ultium the base for its future EVs, like the GMC Hummer EV pickup. This new BrightDrop van will be the first commercial vehicle using Ultium.


_The electric plot thickens_

Recharge

__Investors want a story...__ and now they're buying GM's. __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__'s story — "accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy" —  gets investors going (it's provocative). GM is a 113-year-old company known for trucks built "like a rock." But now that it's investing $27B in electric and autonomous vehicles, the story has transformed. The new narrative: an “all-electric vehicle future," complete with zero-emission delivery ecosystems. The record stock price = investors' seal of approval.


GM shares hit a record high on a futuristic delivery vision

__Sooo, what's a routing number again?...__ __Plaid__ is the "financial bouncer" that you don't see, but you've probably used. It connects your old school Citi or Chase bank account to fintech apps like Venmo, Square, and Robinhood. Plaid grabs your bank account login info, verifies it, then links it — all without those pesky routing/account numbers.

__Sounds cool...__ __[Visa](https://robinhood.com/stocks/V)__ thinks so, too. A year ago, Visa announced it would whip out its card to buy Plaid for $5.3B. Visa's strategy: keep your friends close, and your (potential) enemies acquired. The Department of Justice, which prides itself on crushing monopolies, wasn't feeling the vibe.

- __Two months ago,__ the DOJ filed an antitrust lawsuit saying the merger would limit competition in the payments industry. 
- __*Now*,__ Visa and Plaid are [canceling](https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2021/01/12/visa-drops-plans-to-acquire-fintech-startup-plaid-after-doj-antitrust-lawsuit/?sh=4437788476b2) their merger plans because they don't want to deal with a lengthy lawsuit. 


Fund

__This could be a blessing in disguise for Plaid...__ Since Visa announced the acquisition plans, Plaid's customer base has soared 60% to 4K companies. Consumers have flocked to digital payments and online banking during the pandemic — and Plaid is the "plumbing" that connects them. It's possible Plaid's worth even more now than Visa was planning to pay. And it's likely that there's a lot more room for growth.

Visa’s epic $5.3B Plaid purchase gets canceled (congrats to Plaid?)

__Build me up, build me up...__ buttercup KB. __[KB Home](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KBH)__ is *kind of* like the Chipotle of homebuilding — instead of build-your-own-bowl, KB lets you build-your-own-home (guac's still extra). From September to November, KB's signed purchase contracts soared 42% to the highest Q4 total in 15 years. And more than half of homes delivered went to first-time buyers.

__Life-size Barbie Dreamhouse...__ and Jerome Powell is the Ken doll. The Fed has given us near-zero interest rates to stimulate the economy. Taking out a loan for a house is way cheaper than it was pre-pandemic: mortgage rates [notched](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/13/mortgage-refinance-demand-spikes-20percent-to-start-the-year.html) more than a dozen record lows in 2020. Also: remote work is allowing people to leave cities and flock to suburbs. 

- __The number of homes for sale__ in the US [fell](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/19/housing-shortage-hits-new-record-low-igniting-prices.html) to the lowest level on record in November. That's great for KB, who's buying land and building *new* homes to meet demand. 
- __The median sale price of a home__ rose above $300K for the first time this past summer. That's also good for KB, whose average selling price jumped.


Build

__It's all about the backlog, baby...__ "Backlog homes" are houses that have been ordered, but not built yet. Basically, they represent future sales. KB had nearly 8K backlog homes last quarter, up by half from a year earlier. Even though KB's sales were actually *down* ~20% last quarter, its backlog sales value jumped ~60% to $3B. Since investors are future-focused, KB stock had its biggest daily gain since May yesterday — likely thanks to that sweet backlog.

KB Home is up on the Big Housing Boom (investors dig the backlog)

🚁  GM's futuristic show

__If it's a verb...__ It needs no intro. Flashback to December 2019: WFH days are a rare perk, masks are for spa days, and __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ stock is trading at $65. Flashforward to October 2020: WFH is a meme-ified norm, masks are for all days, and Zoom stock is trading at $560. Oh, and its quarterly profit has increased 3,300% from 2019. 

- __But Zoom has been kind of muted lately...__ Now that Covid-19 vaccines are being administered, shares have fallen to $357. And Zoom wants to cash in before it's too late.
- __Zoom plans to sell 5M+ new shares__ to [raise](https://investors.zoom.us/news-releases/news-release-details/zoom-announces-pricing-175-billion-public-offering) $1.75B in fresh cash. Since more shares are being introduced, Zoom stockholders will own less of the overall company — that [dilutes](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/5rlezLS4uMuf3cZTyEAo38/what-is-stock-dilution/) the value of exisiting shares.

__Conference FOMO...__ Zoom hasn't cashed in on its soaring share price yet. When you buy a company's stock, the company isn't  getting your dollars. The $$$ goes to the random other investor you bought the stock from (just like when you sell, it goes to you). But these new share sales are kind of rare for public companies (though Tesla has announced two this year), because no one wants dilution. So why is Zoom doing this now? 


"_Welcome to ZWork"_

Sell

__Zoom could be gearing up to invest...__ in a "return-to-work" hedge. Zoom doesn't have a cash problem: on October 31, it had [$1.9B](https://investors.zoom.us/news-releases/news-release-details/correction-zoom-reports-results-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2021) in cash, according to its latest earnings. So this share sale isn't a needy cash grab. Zoom is the ultimate WFH stock - that's both its greatest strength and its greatest vulnerability. Now it could be gearing up to invest in (or even acquire) a "return-to-normalcy" hedge. We're thinking it should launch a remote co-working space called ZWork.

Zoom looks to raise $1.75B with a new share sale — but why?

__If a mailbox had a baby with a WiFi-connected Igloo cooler...__ you'd get HomeValet. This "smart cooler" chills on your doorstep, waiting for the grocery delivery so you don't have to. __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__'s [partnering](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/walmart-will-test-grocery-deliveries-to-customers-homes.html) with the startup behind HomeValet for a grocery delivery pilot in Bentonville, Arkansas (aka: Walmart HQ).

- __Secure & contact-less:__ Only you and the delivery guy/gal can unlock the box. 
- __Temp-controlled:__ Three temperature zones — refrigerated, frozen, and room temp (for the Nutella).
- __Phone-controlled:__ Set your HomeValet to 0° F straight from the app. 
- __Disinfecting:__ Bacteria-crushing UV lights sanitize your eggplant.

__Walmart isn't famous for its e-nnovation...__ but it *is* famous for groceries. Walmart = [largest](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7npBg6WCh7X1ssgq9cuRtt/articles/5KSLxwetQ3mOFHvXF6Jnl9/) grocer in the US. This partnership with HomeValet could give it an innovative edge against techy __Instacart__ and __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__. In fact, Walmart customers will be the first to gain access to HomeValet boxes (they haven't even dropped yet).


Cool

__Prime goes wide, Walmart+ goes deep...__ into grocery. Makes sense, since groceries account for over half of Walmart's sales. ICYMI: Walmart+ is the $98/year Amazon Prime rival. Prime offers everything from free shipping, to video, to Music, and yes... grocery delivery. But Walmart+ has one major selling point: free unlimited grocery delivery. HomeValet could level up Walmart's grocery by expanding perks. 


Walmart tests an outdoor "smart cooler" for anytime grocery delivery

💻  Zoom's $1.75B stock sale 

__Returning your returns...__ So meta. The new approach to online returns: *don't do them.* From __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__, to __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__, and __[Chewy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CHWY)__, companies are starting to say “keep it,” [according](https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-walmart-tell-consumers-to-skip-returns-of-unwanted-items-11610274600) to the WSJ. They’ll refund you for that tight-fitting beanie — but they don't want it back. Why so nice? 

- __*It's a price thing*.__ Some returns are more expensive to process and ship than the products actually cost — especially cheap or heavy items. Companies use AI to do the math.
- __Returns can cost companies $10 to $20,__ *excluding* transportation. So it makes more economic sense to just refund you for that $7 PopSocket (iPhone was allergic). 

__Do "one-size-fits-all" fuzzy socks count?...__ The number of ecommerce returns in 2020 jumped 70% from 2019. More than half of that was driven by soaring online sales. A fourth was because you didn’t want to return online orders at physical stores. And a smaller part was because... clothes didn't fit after gaining the Quarantine 15. 

- __For customers,__ this is clearly a win. Your pile of "return" items has been growing for years since the psychological hassle is just too much to bear.
- __For companies,__ making customers happy and losing less money are wins. But it could be a slippery slope ("Amazon return fraud" is apparently a dark-web career).

Unslip

__Score one for brick-and-mortar...__ Ecommerce takes all the spotlight nowadays, but we often overlook the big, hidden costs of online shopping: returns. According to __[Shopify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SHOP)__, online purchases are returned at least twice as much as physical purchases. According to others, they're returned *three to four times* as frequently. That's wasted time, effort, and money for companies. As return volumes hit record highs, that model just doesn't make sense for some businesses.  

The anti-return policy: Walmart and Amazon don't want your stuff back

__Gone in six Quibis (and back in three)...__  In October, __Quibi__ [announced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7oAUli7UMHThk1zPsZgphL/articles/1YFRPlVRtVru6uD41Ujn2V) it was shutting down just six months after launching. The short video streamer had raised a ginormous $1.75B to bring star-studded original shows to your phone (Liam Hemsworth, Idris Elba, Chrissy Teigen — all Quibi'd). The hype was real, but the cruel reality was realer (it flopped). While Quibi is dead, its content is being reincarnated... *in the body of a streaming dongle*.

__If content is king...__ then __Roku__ just got a royal deal. The popular streaming device company has acquired the rights to 75+ Quibi shows, to be streamed exclusively on its free, ad-supported "Roku Channel." Sure, Quibi had some questionable content (see: show about a woman with a [golden arm](https://news.avclub.com/we-need-to-talk-about-the-golden-arm-episode-of-quibi-1842886592), show about a [sex doll](https://decider.com/2020/04/16/anna-kendrick-sex-doll-dummy-quibi-trailer/) come to life). But it splurged on HBO-level production quality and A-list stars, so Roku's getting a sweet deal:

- __$1.1B:__ How much Quibi spent on content in the first year, topping out at $100K *per minute* for the priciest shows.
- __Less than $100M:__ How much Roku [reportedly](https://www.wsj.com/articles/roku-acquires-rights-to-quibi-s-content-11610116056) paid for all that Quibi content. 
- __For reference:__ Netflix [spent](https://deadline.com/2020/01/netflix-spending-on-content-set-to-climb-past-17b-in-2020-analyst-expects-1202832546/) more than $17B on original content in 2020 alone (you could probably tell from the *Bridgerton* set design).


_Roku's Golden Arm_

Streamy

__Roku is thriving on both sides of streaming...__ As "the People's Streaming Device" (aka: cheaper alternative to Apple TV), Roku is the leader in streaming hardware, covering over [50M](https://deadline.com/2021/01/roku-hits-51-million-active-accounts-streaming-hours-surge-2020-1234665590/) households. That's likely why its stock has nearly 3X'd in value over the past six pandemic months. But more than [70%](https://ir.roku.com/static-files/2148e434-58e4-48e1-bd1c-926862e3c21b) of its sales actually come from ad sales and subscriptions — and those are growing faster than hardware sales. By beefing up content on The Roku Channel — which has 40K+ movies and shows — Roku can make more ad money *and* sharpen its double-edge over streamers like Netflix. 


Quibi gets a new lease on life  (and Roku gets a great, ad-tastic deal)

📦  Amazon's anti-return policy 

__Still reeling...__  The nation was shaken Wednesday, when pro-Trump rioters stormed the US Capitol building, temporarily halting the certification of Joe Biden’s Electoral College win. Five people died during the attack, including a US Capitol Police officer. Trump was widely criticized for [stoking](https://www.vox.com/22220746/trump-speech-incite-capitol-riot) the insurrection, which struck at the cornerstone of American democracy. While the riot received bipartisan condemnation, Big Tech took unprecedented action...

- __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__ went the furthest, permanently banning Trump and removing his tweet history. It [cited](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension.html) the risk that he could incite further violence (against Twitter Rules). 
- __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ locked Trump's FB and Insta accounts *at least* until January 20th (aka: Biden's inauguration) — and potentially indefinitely.
- __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__ and  __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ removed __Parler__, a right-wing-friendly “free speech” app, from their app stores. Then, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ said it would no longer host Parler on its AWS cloud.
-  __[Shopify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SHOP)__ permanently took down Trump's campaign merch store, while __[Paypal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PYPL)__  [deactivated](https://www.cnet.com/news/paypal-and-shopify-remove-trump-related-accounts-citing-policies-against-supporting-violence/) an account that raised money for Trump supporters, some of whom traveled to the Capitol.
- __[Snap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)__ locked Trump's account, while __Amazon__'s Twitch indefinitely banned Trump's streaming channel.

__Wall Street's two cents ...__ Twitter stock fell 5% for the week, even though the moves are likely to win Big Tech goodwill with the newly Democrat-controlled government (Dems have criticized Twitter for not moderating *enough*). More goodwill = potentially less regulation and Congressional grillings. But Twitter investors seemed [concerned](https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-donald-trump-media-michael-flynn-social-media-f41b11060d7703e3a3136ddb5eefa055) that the Trump ban could reduce usage and ad sales. 


_Twitter employee with the kill switch: "It's done"_

#Blocked

__The immense power and responsibility of Big Tech has never been clearer...__ First: in allowing misinformation to spread, bad actors to organize, and nearly anyone to have a huge platform. Second: in taking away that voice and reach in a matter of seconds, from a figure as significant as the US president. These tech bans are a reminder that a company like Twitter, with just 5K employees, wields disproportionate influence over world events. They also set a precedent for how the public will expect them to intervene moving forward.


Big Tech excommunicates President Trump — and Twitter bans him permanently 

__Diamonds on my (block)chain...__ __[Bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC)__ topped $40K for the first time last week, more than *doubling* in a month. The epic rally was partly [driven](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3LgF2GHrBcJKBJ4WJf1iwx/articles/2nXdL69aReUxvgeSTBY2ox) by institutional FOMO: companies like banks and hedge funds have been pouring into the crypto coin. Mainstream investors, who have more access to bitcoin than ever through fintech apps, also took part in the rally. While bitcoin tends to be volatile (read: crash-prone), some see it as a hedge against inflation: bitcoin's supply is capped at 21M coins, while the Fed’s money printers have been blasting out $$$ to stimulate the economy.

__Clean juice cleanse...__  Electric vehicles had a [moment](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/14Hg085xWwEvJnaWbkrQrd/articles/4UtTPkEjyCpP3Ry2vGbqHG) last week with a flurry of milestones. __[Nio](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NIO)__, the so-called "Tesla of China," said its 2020 deliveries more than doubled from a year ago to ~44K. __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ (the "Tesla of Tesla") delivered a record-breaking ~500K cars last year. Meanwhile in Norway, electric cars outsold gas and hybrid models for the first time in 2020. In the UK, EV sales nearly tripled while total auto sales hit the lowest level since 1992. 


Who's up...

__I sink, therefore I am...__ While the __[S&P 500](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/7kFFEUv46vmMCmMfLuNiRX/what-is-the-s-and-p-500/)__  was busy hitting record highs, __[Carnival](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CCL)__ dropped the anchor. Shares of the world's largest cruise company fell 5% for the week, after three of Carnival's cruise lines pushed back sail dates to follow government protocols. Still, the cruise operator seems upbeat about its advanced bookings for 2021, and the stock has rallied 50% since November. BTW: Carnival is dropping earnings today — analysts are [expecting](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/01/08/carnival-delta-and-3-other-big-names-ravaged-by-shutdowns-report-earnings-next-week-heres-what-to-expect/?sh=37222f179580) sales to be down a whopping 97% from last year. 

__Hitting reverse...__ The pace of jobs recovery has been [slowing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/zVG8BBoAxAmMC9XSil04c/articles/6oRNWLHX5ImjkATSKIBZu3/) for months, but now the US is actually *losing* jobs again: the US economy [shed](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/jobs-report-december-2020.html) 140K jobs in December, the first monthly net loss since April. Hospitality accounted for most of that as Covid cases surged. Bars and restaurants got hit hardest, losing nearly 400K positions as California banned outdoor dining. The unemployment rate remained flat from November at 6.7% (nearly double the pre-pandemic rate). But investors shrugged off the report, looking ahead to vaccines and more stimulus.


...and who's down

🛑  Big Tech blocks Trump 

__Off the (block)chain...__ Yesterday, __[bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC)__ [topped](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/bitcoin-btc-rally-extends-price-hits-record-high-above-37700.html) $40K for the first time, more than doubling in value in the span of a month. The record price pushed the total value of the cryptocurrency market above $1T (also a first) — bitcoin makes up around $700B of that, and has nearly 5X'd over the past year.

__Call it institutional FOMO...__ Bitcoin was launched by the mysterious "Satoshi Nakamoto" in 2009. But it really took off in late 2017, when it tripled from September to December — *but then fell back down to earth*. That rally was mainly driven by individual retail investors (and their FOMO). This time around...

- __Big institutional investors__ like banks and hedge funds got the FOMO bug, too. MassMutual Life Insurance [invested](https://www.coindesk.com/massmutual-buys-100m-bitcoin-bets-on-institutional-adoption-with-5m-nydig-stake) $100M in bitcoin just last month. But that's not all...
- __Mainstream investors__ have more access to bitcoin than ever, with fintechs like __Robinhood__ (aka: us), __Coinbase__, __[Square](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SQ)__, and now even Venmo-owner __[Paypal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PYPL)__ offering crypto trading. Paypal also [announced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7oAUli7UMHThk1zPsZgphL/articles/64Xxtjw5EU6eAofxqGMVa3/) plans to let users shop/pay at 26M merchants with crypto.
- __Well-known investors__ like Paul Tudor Jones  have come out as "bitcoin believers," inspiring bit-confidence in retail and institutional investors alike. 


__Bitcoin's superpower = anti-inflation...__ While bitcoin tends to be volatile and crash-prone, some investors see it as a hedge in case the US dollar loses too much value and prices soar (aka: inflation). ICYMI: The Fed’s money printers have been blasting out dollars to inject back into the economy. More dollars = less demand for dollars = less valuable dollars = potential inflation — oh, and the national debt is at [$27.7T](https://www.usdebtclock.org/). Meanwhile, bitcoin's supply is capped: today, about 18.5M bitcoins have been [mined](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3E2MYqmOkTAKbBTKPPKQw7/articles/3CV4hFZKvcQZUVRww3ZloG) out of the 21M that will ever be created (by 2140). But in theory, cash can be printed endlessly, increasing the risk of inflation.


Bitcoin's Big $40K: we're breaking down possible reasons for the epic rally

__Diamonds on my Roblox...__ Online gaming company __Roblox__  just [raised](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/06/roblox-raises-520-million-ahead-of-planned-direct-listing.html) $520M from private investors ahead of its public debut, leveling it up to a $29.5B valuation — that's more than 7X its February 2020 valuation. If you haven't heard of Roblox, that's probably because you're over the age of 15. It's basically the YouTube of user-created games, except it also lets you play/chat with friends.  Roblox launched in 2006, but *exploded* in 2020:

- __[~75%](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/27/tech/roblox-explainer/index.html) of American kids ages 9 through 12__ now play Roblox. Homebound tweens flocked to the platform for virtual playdates and b-days.
- __Roblox now has more than 31M *daily* users,__ up from 18M in September 2019. It's still losing money, but sales grew 68% in the first three quarters of 2020 (from the same period in 2019).

__*But how does it make those Ro-bucks?*...__ With Robux. While games are free, kids pay for virtual currency to upgrade their avatars or get super powers.  When someone spends in-game, Roblox gives a [24.5%](https://developer.roblox.com/en-us/articles/developer-economics) cut to the game's developer. In exchange for all of that content, Roblox shoulders the app store and cloud hosting costs, providing a free (popular) platform to develop games.


_Roblox's non-target audience_

Play(date)

__IPOs are losing points...__ Roblox was *planning* to go public through a traditional IPO. Then it watched __[Airbnb](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ABNB)__ and __[DoorDash](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DASH)__ shares [open](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3dRtKJ3pIUtnX1yDSLVTJY/articles/47zqImTPv4BiAjpmDbiqv4) on the stock market at roughly *double* their IPO prices, and said "no thanks." Companies that are going public only raise money when they sell to VIP investors in the IPO — so Airbnb and DoorDash didn't benefit directly when their shares soared *post*-IPO (if anything, they lost out). So Roblox has chosen to use a rare Direct Listing, where no new shares are created. This cheaper, faster option is [becoming](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5v5XVtc1gTDCrGNZIuANTa/articles/4melLm5tbEOhCjxLIJrNEi/) more common as IPOs lose favor. 


Roblox makes video games differently — now it's going public (differently)

💰 Bitcoin's big $40K  

__Run it back...__ In the November elections, the state of Georgia went to Biden. But the Senate race went into overtime: a Georgia candidate needs to win over 50% of votes before advancing (*it's a Georgia thing*). That didn't happen, so we had runoff elections between the top-voted candidates this week. TLDR: Republicans had to win one seat to control the Senate, and Democrats needed two — the Dems unexpectedly took both.

__November feels like eons ago...__ Back then, we were pretty sure Republicans would end up taking the Senate. That got Wall Street [excited](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7jMUu1TK8PviqbKCFjQhjC/articles/fANoLk3xN0eAS9EJKw0qr/) about a divided government (round 2). 

- __The S&P 500 soared__ 11% in November on the tech rally, *and* the decreased chance that Trump's tax cuts would get undone.
- __Tech stocks jumped__ because a divided Congress makes it harder to pass legislation against Big Tech (or any legislation). Health care stocks shared the joy. 
- __Pot stocks *fell*__ because a Republican Senate makes legalization at the federal level unlikely. 


Elect

__Yesterday, we saw "The Undoing"...__ A partial reversal of November's market moves (not the HBO show). The tech-heavy __[Nasdaq](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/1GXPrecRfkSNp0aBblBSsL/what-is-the-nasdaq/)__ index dropped on regulation fears, while pot stocks like __[Aurora](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ACB)__ and __[Canopy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CGC)__ surged on legalization hopes. The __[Dow](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/13urVTf3GSQYdsr7Eq5fHL/what-is-the-dow/)__ jumped to a record high, led by banks and industrial companies like __[Caterpillar](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CAT)__ — which could benefit from more stimulus and the Dems' $1.5T infrastructure plan. What investors really have their eye on: *more stimulus money*, which could be a priority for the Dem-controlled Congress.


What the Georgia election results could mean for the stock market

__*"Ooh girl, shock me like an electric"*...__ wheel. Electric vehicles are having a moment this week with a flurry of milestones from around the globe: 

-  __China:__  EV sales from January through November jumped more than 4% from a year ago, while overall car sales fell nearly 8%. __[Nio](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NIO)__, the so-called "Tesla of China," said its deliveries more than doubled from a year ago to ~44K vehicles.
-  __US:__ __Rivian__, the __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__-backed electric truck startup, is reportedly close to raising funds at a sweet $25B valuation. Meanwhile, __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ (the "Tesla of Tesla") delivered a record-breaking, expectation-beating 180.5K cars last quarter, for a 2020 total of nearly 500K (up from 367.5K in 2019). 
-  __Norway:__ EV sales [rose](https://www.reuters.com/article/autos-electric-norway/electric-cars-rise-to-record-54-market-share-in-norway-in-2020-idINKBN29A0ZL) to a record 54% market share in 2020 — the first year electric cars outsold gas and hybrid models. Sadly for Elon, __[Volkswagen](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VWAGY)__ replaced Tesla as the top EV producer in the country.
-  __UK:__  Electric cars had their "best-ever year" — EV sales nearly tripled while UK auto sales as a whole hit the lowest level since 1992.

__Ludicrous...__ While the rise of EVs is old news, this week's headlines prove what a remarkably good year 2020 was for the electric market.

_EV makers rolling into 2021 like..._

__Politics could make 2021 the Year of the EV...__ The top two barriers to EV-buying are range-anxiety and price. A Democrat-controlled Senate could pass legislation supporting EV cost incentives and infrastructure (think: more charging stations). Top Senate Democrate Chuck Schumer has already [proposed](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-emissions-congress/senate-democrat-schumer-proposes-plan-to-swap-gas-cars-for-electric-vehicles-idUSKBN1X403N) a $454B 10-year plan to offer cash vouchers for EV purchases. That, coupled with swiftly-falling battery prices, could make 2021 the Year of the EV.

From Tesla to Nio, electric vehicles are having a global moment 

🚘  Tesla, Nio, and the "Year of the EV"

__Nano vibes...__ Podcasts are as old as the 2004 iPod — the term is actually a mashup of "iPod" and "broadcast." But the Big Pod Boom came more recently: global monthly podcast listeners grew from 287M in 2016 to 1B+ in 2020 — and they're [expected](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/mar/30/podcastings-netflix-moment-the-global-battle-for-domination) to hit 1.85B in 2023. Audio streamers can profit more from pods than from songs, since they don't have to give record labels a cut. That's partly why: 

- __[Spotify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__ has shelled out $700M+ over the past two years to buy pod-related companies like __The Ringer__ and __Parcast__.
- __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__, the pod OG,  is [reportedly](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-21/apple-ramps-up-original-podcasts-in-part-to-help-promote-tv?sref=q3KSFp38) amping up efforts to produce Apple-original podcasts. It now hosts over [1M](https://mashable.com/article/apple-one-million-podcasts-milestone/) podcasts, nearly double from 2018.
- __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ is snatching up podcast network __Wondery__ to make Amazon Music more pod-pular.

__@ me (in my ears)...__ Now __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__ is [buying](https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/04/twitter-acquires-social-podcasting-app-breaker-team-to-help-build-twitter-spaces/) social pod app __Breaker__, which lets users comment on episodes and follow friends. The actual Breaker app is getting shut down this month, and Twitter is getting Breaker's staff and tech (so: more like an acquihire). It'll use the fresh talent to help with its new audio-based social project, "Twitter Spaces." Because we can't wait to hear Twitter out loud.


_Trolls World Tour, or Twitter Audio Spaces?_

Podular

__Podcasting needs a social breakthrough...__ Podcasts have communities of listeners, but they're one-way convos. You have to go to a social network (cough, like Twitter) to try to engage. Barely $1B/year is spent on pod ads, because targeting on pods is way less precise than social targeting. *If* Twitter's audio Spaces can can bring social + pods together, that could significantly boost ad sales both for pods and for Twitter.


Twitter buys "social podcasting" app Breaker to help build its audio platform

__*Phew*...__ __[Alibaba](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BABA)__ stock jumped ~6% yesterday on news that its multibillionaire founder Jack Ma is [reportedly](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html) just lying low — *not missing*. Ma hasn't been seen in public since November, when he missed an appearance on... his own TV show. Ma went from being the only guy who [couldn't](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/lesson-alibabas-jack-ma-learned-after-being-rejected-for-a-job-at-kfc.html) land a job at KFC, to one of the most well-known businessmen in the world — with a $650B company to boot (Alibaba, aka: "Amazon of China"). But now his "babies" are in trouble...

- __Ant:__ In November, Ma's huge fintech __Ant Group__ was set to go public in the largest IPO *ever.* Unrelated: Ma publicly [criticized](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/04/tech/jack-ma-alibaba-ant-group-intl-hnk/index.html#:~:text=At%20a%20conference%20in%20Shanghai,risks%20is%20to%20kill%20innovation.) Chinese regulators for essentially killing innovation. Related: Chinese regulators indefinitely [suspended](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3Y16VU6wsQpOaP5bwzUgFf/articles/10lyNbTzg1HbB3563ygUqe/) Ant's IPO (#squashed).
- __Baba:__ Last month, China [launched](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-24/china-launches-probe-into-alibaba-over-monopoly-allegations?sref=q3KSFp38) an anti-monopoly probe targeting Alibaba, which owns 33% of Ant.

__B(old) choice of words...__ China was likely not thrilled to have its financial regulations referred to as "an old people's club" — which Ma [reportedly](https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/362663) did at that fateful conference in Shanghai. But comments like that aren't illegal, and can't be the basis for a suspended IPO or an investigation... *Or can they*?


Baba

__Chinese companies' #1 stakeholder = the Chinese gov’t...__ Alibaba has over 750M customers, and Ant has over 1B users. This story is a reminder that no matter how huge a company gets, China doesn't necessarily need to justify itself to reign it in. If anything, the massive scale of those companies can make China even more keen on keeping a hand on the wheel: [according](https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-eyes-shrinking-jack-mas-business-empire-11609260092#:~:text=Beijing%20is%20seeking%20to%20shrink,oversight%20of%20an%20increasingly%20influential) to Chinese officials, Beijing is trying to shrink Ma's empire and potentially take a larger stake in his businesses.


🍔 One small step for man...

💰 Inauguration Edition: $$, markets, and the economy

👛 Poshmark's double IPO pop

🚁 GM's futuristic show

💻 Zoom's $1.75B stock sale

📦 Amazon's anti-return policy

🛑 Big Tech blocks Trump

💰 Bitcoin's big $40K

🚘 Tesla, Nio, and the "Year of the EV"

🎙 Twitter's pod-cquisition