__Plenty of fish in the sea…__ More like plenty of pea protein. Plant-based foods have become so mainstream that alt-meat patties are regulars at Burger King, Dunkin’, Starbucks, and Walmart.  

- __Oat explosion:__ The global market for plant-based foods could grow to [$450](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/faux-fish-looks-to-ride-the-growing-wave-of-alternative-meats.html)B by 2040, which would represent roughly a quarter of the $1.8T meat market.
- __Soy stars:__ The growth has been driven by alternative milk and meat, which together make up 55% of total plant-based sales. 
- But in the shadow of __Oatly,__ __Beyond Meat,__ and __Impossible Foods,__ another alt is growing fast: fake fish.

__Friend keeps telling you to watch “Seaspiracy”...__ as you inhale spicy tuna rolls. Alternative seafood is one of the fastest growing segments of the plant-based market. Think: tuna made from tomatoes, and artichoke crab cakes. Investment in US plant-based seafood hit [$70](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-04/plant-based-sushi-faux-fish-rattle-the-multibillion-dollar-seafood-market?sref=q3KSFp38)M in the first half of 2021 — as much as in the past two years combined. But it still makes up only $12M, or 0.1% of the $15B US seafood market. That’s partly because real seafood has a strong health halo. 

__Cry me a freshwater river…__ Big Food may have missed the fake meat boom, but it’s not about to miss the fake fish fiesta. 

- __Tyson__ invested in plant-based shellfish company New Wave Foods, which launched its seaweed based shrimp this year. 
- __Nestle__ launched Vuna, a plant-based tuna alternative, last year. It cited stats that 90% of global fish stocks are now fully or nearly depleted. 
- __Thai Union Group,__ which owns tuna legend Chicken of the Sea, already makes plant-based fish and crab, and plans to launch plant-based shrimp this year.


That first bite of faux fish [Westend61 via GettyImages]

__You can be late to the trend, but early to the opportunity…__ Big Food was late to plant meat and milk — but early to fake fish. There isn’t yet a dominant player in plant-based seafood, like there is for alt-meat and milk. Plus, the faux meat giants aren’t going after seafood yet. If companies can make plant-based seafood as tasty and nutritious as real fish, they could be early to a big opportunity.

Plant-based patties get all the love, but fake fish is growing — and Big Food wants fin 

__Green is the new black…__ Cannabis is on a tear — sales at the top 10 publicly traded cannabis companies more than doubled over the last year. Scotts Miracle-Gro, the garden company whose cannabis subsidiary boomed last quarter, launched a cannabis investment arm last week. The new division already invested $150M in a Canadian cannabis company. Also: last week, a $500M ecomm site Leafly announced plans to go public via SPAC later this year.

__After an infrastructure appetizer…__ it’s time to discuss the entree. Last week, a bipartisan group of Senators passed a historic $1T infrastructure bill to improve roads and rail, internet access, and EV networks. The tab will be partly funded by crypto taxes and Covid funds. But there’s a hook — House Dems plan to stall unless they can also tack on a $3.5T social and climate package. If the bills pass, they could kick off a new era of big government.

Zoom Out

Stories we're watching...

__The DIY boom is ending…__ but someone still needs to fix the faucet. DIY-mania powered strong 2020 sales at Home Depot and Lowe’s. But last quarter, sales of “pro” products for contractors exceeded sales from DIYers at both companies — and helped their sales continue rising year-over-year. We’ll see if their new focus on pros through everything from tool rentals to supply chain improvements has paid off when both companies report earnings this week.

__Shop ‘til the stimmies stop…__ After a spring of up-and-down consumer spending, retail sales [rose](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/16/us-retail-sales-unexpectedly-rise-0point6percent-in-june-.html) above pre-pandemic levels in June as people spent padded savings and leftover stimulus cash on electronics, cars, and online classes. But inflation, the spread of Delta, and the end of stimmy payments could dampen the buzz. We’ll get a pulse check on America’s shopping spree when the July retail sales report, which tracks retail and restuarant spending, drops on Tuesday. 

Events

Coming up this week...

- __[Unleased:](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/CoBbb3XOG07QxgjRD9qAY/articles/5jWelzvgjVxRngffky9wjf/)__ WeWork is partnering with Saks Fifth Avenue to launch in-store working spaces – this time it doesn't own the leases.
- __[Experiment:](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6s2Q9yXESEe1smTaPJ4t57/articles/3aeXdG3lOjozOrw9o9aWcL/)__ Disney shares jumped last week after its theme parks returned to profit – but its real focus is Disney+ and its Great Media Experiment.
- __[#Benefits:](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6EL5TRTmp9geUpgsXeiK1l/articles/2vf0ghZ3cYccAbq8of8SuW/)__ Walmart and Target offer to pay 100% of college tuition for workers as companies amp up benefits to lure workers.


ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

🐠 Fake fish, real opportunity

__The force is strong…__ Disney shares surged 5% on word its theme parks division enjoyed their first profitable quarter since the pandemic started. Disney World, Disneyland, etc. powered Mickey’s $17B in quarterly revenue, beating expectations. But Disney also runs a media business, which it’s treating like a lab.

__Netflix only releases movies on Netflix__... But Disney distributes their movies all over, from streaming to theaters to cable. And over the last three months, Disney’s been experimenting:

- __“The Falcon & Winter Soldier”__: The Marvel series streamed exclusively on Disney+ – not in theaters. 
- __“Free Guy”__: The Ryan Reynolds movie is premiering [only](https://variety.com/2021/film/box-office/ryan-reynolds-free-guy-box-office-opening-weekend-projections-1235038389/) in theaters – no Disney+ streaming.
- __“Luca”__: The coming-of-age newbie was streaming on Disney+ *and* hit a physical Disney [theater](https://www.vulture.com/article/luca-how-to-watch-stream-disney-plus.html) in LA.
- __“Black Widow”__: She premiered in theaters *and* Disney+, but streamers had to cough up $30 extra to watch (Disney++).

Inside Disney's streamer lab [Erik Isakson via GettyImages]

Experiment

__All this confusion could lead us back to the bundle…__ It can be annoying to toggle between Disney+, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu, and Peacock – and the slew of debut strategies can leave viewers feeling like guinea pigs as Disney and others experiment for profits. Another company, FuboTV, said this week they think your mounting pile of streamer accounts and bills could leave you craving a bundle. As the streaming world gets more complex, a cord – or a single service for your streaming needs – may not seem so bad.

Disney jumps 5% as theme parks return to profits — but its focus is on the Great Media Experiment

__Thinking outside of the bun…__ Your Crunchwrap Supreme may soon be airborne. __Taco Bell__ just unveiled plans for “Defy,” its new four-lane drive-thru model that delivers food via vertical chutes down to your car. Taco Bell plans to activate its first QR scanner-powered Defy in Brooklyn Park, Minnesota next summer. It’s faster than OG drive thrus – and even more pandemic-friendly – it eliminates human-to-human burrito handoffs.

__We’re in a drive-thru renaissance…__ and Taco Bell just built the Sistine Chapel. Drive-thrus were big pre-pandemic, but lockdown made them huge. Drive-thru orders grew 26% in the spring quarter of 2020 year-over-year, as dining rooms limited their capacity or full-stop closed. But as in-person dining returned, drive-thru lines didn’t shrink — they got even *longer*. Taco Bell wasn’t the only chain that noticed. Since the pandemic started: 

- __Smaller__: __Burger King__ unveiled a “Restaurant of Tomorrow” concept that’s 60% smaller than normal BK’s to add extra drive-thru lanes and more contactless options. 
- __Faster__: __Chipotle__ launched drive-thru “Chipotlanes” to accelerate its mobile order pick ups. 
- __Casual-er__: Fast-casual chains like __Sweetgreen__ and __Shake Shack__ that didn’t have drive-thrus made plans to build their own, opening this year.
- __But…__ Not everyone got the memo. Even before the pandemic, fast-casual chains with few, or zero, drive-thrus like __TGI Friday’s__ have struggled. Meanwhile, Taco Bell’s profit rose in 2020, and this year, its first quarter sales increased  9% from a year ago.

Chutes

__Sometimes the queue matters just as much as the product…__ By re-imagining its drive-thrus, Taco Bell recognized that customers care about more than just taste — they also care about convenience and safety. Some states have revived mask mandates and other restrictions as the Delta spreads, and people start to scale back on  dining IRL. But Taco Bell’s burrito chutes could help keep sales flowing.

With its taco toll booth, Taco Bell bets that people want their queso contactless

🧪 Disney's great experiment

__Kombucha tap is running dry…__ And the __WeWork__ saga continues. Two years ago, WeWork's planned IPO crashed and burned. Then, its controversial founder Adam Neumann stepped down as CEO. This year, WeWork plans to go public by merging with a publicly-traded SPAC called __BowX__. The merger's expected to value WeWork at $9B — down from *$47B* in 2019. 

-  __WeWork is a notorious money-loser,__ and the pandemic WFH life sure didn't help. In the first quarter of this year, WeWork's losses [quadrupled](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/21/weworks-losses-quadruple-to-21bn-in-first-quarter-of-2021) to $2.1B.
-  __WeWork's new leadership__ is trying to slow the cash-bleed. Part of that new strategy now involves Carrie Bradshaw's favorite department store. 

__Better than a coffee break...__ a Gucci break. WeWork is teaming up with __Hudson Bay__, the company that owns Saks Fifth Avenue, to add co-working spaces to department stores. The first five "SaksWorks" spaces are slated to open next month in NYC. WeWork will operate and staff them in return for a cut of sales. But here's the key part: *it won't have to pay rent*.

- __Old We = Renter:__ In its rush to grow-at-all-costs, WeWork signed a flurry of leases that could cost it $10B+ in the next four years. And it doesn't even get to keep the real estate. 
- __New We = Property Manager:__ WeWork expects to open ~70% of its new spaces under arrangements that avoid leases. Like: the Saks revenue-sharing deal.


_Team meeting in Women's Apparel section [Boogich/E+ via GettyImages]_

Unlease

__"Unleasing" could make WeWork more of a tech company...__ and less of real estate company. Leasing real estate is pricey, and it's draining WeWork's non-existent profits — *and* its ability to scale. Without leases, WeWork could scale faster and cheaper. Uber doesn't buy cars, Airbnb doesn't buy houses, and Instacart doesn't buy grocery stores. In the same vein, WeWork doesn't need to pay for buildings — it can just provide the service. 


WeWork partners with Saks for in-store working spaces — the "unleasing" has begun

__A different kind of slimdown...__ is happening at __[WW](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WW)__ — formerly known as Weight Watchers. WW expected an uptick in dieting this year, as people emerged from hybernation and planned for #hotvaxsummer. Turns out, it was WW’s sales and subscriptions that slimmed down last quarter. WW shares plunged nearly 30% after yesterday's earnings. 

__Loose-fit jeans = the new sweatpants…__ Summers are typically WW’s worst season, but this year WW expected a pandemic glow-up moment. *That didn't materialize*: despite the national reopening, WW’s sales fell 7% last quarter from last year. Although four in 10 people in the US gained unwanted weight during the pandemic, they’re not in a hurry to lose it. 

- __Serving up connection:__ People are more focused on reconnecting with friends than toning their beach bods. Spending at restaurants and bars hit an all-time high in May.
- __Health, on your own terms:__ Consumers didn’t abandon wellness, but they prioritized convenience. Health-focused companies like  __MyFitnessPal__ and __HelloFresh__ added millions of users. And __Atkins__ and __SlimFast__ saw a boost in sales of their pre-made diet foods.


Weighed

__Read the room...__ to reap the profits. After a year of pandemic restrictions and routines, consumers want options, experiences, and flexibility — not strict regimens and daily cauli rice. Companies that are responding to these demands are reaping benefits: Levi’s sales more than doubled last quarter as it [leaned in](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/YT38JsvnXohOf0FUMOuuu/articles/1QYBI5AuCj6KdCiF9yAt9a/) to baggier jeans and "balloon pants."

WW (aka: Weight Watchers) quarterly sales are shrinking faster than waistlines

🏠 WeWork, unleased

__Rare collab...__ between political influencers. Senate Democrats and Republicans came together yesterday to pass a $1T infrastructure bill. Nineteen Republicans joined all 50 Senate Dems to approve the package, which advances a key piece of President Biden's agenda: giving America’s old infrastructure a major [facelift](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5LFeKLcW6vcwl0ortNgrtm/articles/4n7AMG2fFNs2TmR0EXgTgO/). $550B will go to public works programs, including:

- __$110B__ to roads and bridges, $66B to rail, and $40B to transit. 
- __$65B__ to expand internet access, including $30 monthly  vouchers for low-income families. 
- __$7.5B__ to build new EV charging stations, and $7.5B for greener school buses. 

__When the bill arrives...__ Instead of raising taxes to pay for the package, Congress would get crafty. Think: repurposing existing Covid funds, and applying new IRS reporting requirements for crypto. But the bill still needs a green light from the House, which could be rocky. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the chamber wouldn’t take it up until the Senate *also* passes a massive antipoverty and climate plan. About that...

- __This week, Dems unveiled a $3.5T budget plan__ for big spending on social programs and climate efforts. Like: universal pre-K, two free years of community college, public housing, and clean energy development. 
- __The plan would largely be paid for by raising taxes__ on corporations and the wealthy. Dems plan to approve it through reconciliation, which wouldn't require GOP support.


_And this is just the appetizer [Jonathan Knowles/Stone via GettyImages]_

Build

__This could be just the appetizer...__ to a new era for the US government. For Dems, the $1T bipartisan infrastructure bill could be the start of a spending feast that could reshape the role of US government. Since Reagan became prez in 1981, the federal government's role in Americans' lives has shrunk. President Biden is positioning himself as a new FDR, trying to kick off an expansion fueled by spending on social programs and climate initiatives. 


The Senate  passed a historic $1T infrastructure bill — but it could be just an appetizer

__Welcome to frown town...__ population: __[Smile Direct Club](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SDC)__. Like Invisalign-maker __[Align Technology](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ALGN)__, SDC makes invisible aligners for your pearly whites. *Unlike* Align, Smile Direct Club chose the D2C route (direct-to-consumer). Yesterday, SDC said its aligner sales dropped 13% from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, competitor Invisalign's sales *grew* by nearly the same amount. SDC investors indirectly frowned, sending the stock down 25% yesterday.

__On-Zoom cavity check…__ Telehealth adoption spiked 20X at the start of the pandemic. Adult braces boomed last year as we stared at our chompers on Zoom. While shares of Align Technology have more than doubled over the past year, SDC's have fallen 56%.  That may be because of how they sell their molds:

- __D2C:__ Smile Direct sells most of its aligners by advertising on social media and shipping DIY teeth molds straight to customers. 
- __D2D:__ Direct-to-dentist. Invisalign partners with 83K dentists to sell its aligners. There’s no DIY option — you have to go in for checkups and fittings with your doc. 
- Last quarter, SDC's only sales channel (D2C) was dinged by a cyberattack and changes to Apple’s privacy policy that limited ad targeting. 


Smize

__D2C doesn’t always work…__ It's great for simple products like dog toys and razors. But complex products that require extreme personalization — and involve your health — sometimes require more hand-holding. That's why D2C glasses company __Warby Parker__ has doubled down on physical stores with specialists. And that's why SDC is now building out its own dentist Partner Program.

 Smile Direct Club shares plunged after earnings, even though its competitors are beaming

🍱  $1T infrastructure appetizer 

__Textbooks cost more than the MacBook...__ At least they double as a door jammer. College education in the US is notoriously pricey. To ease the burden, __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ and __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__ are [offering](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2021/08/05/target-and-walmart-are-offering-free-college-tuition-to-attract-and-retain-workers/) free college tuition to their workers. 

- __Walmart__ is offering 100% of tuition and book fees to 1.5M associates at 10 universities. It's allocating $1B over five years to cover career development offerings.
- __Target__ is offering paid tuition and textbooks to its 340K full and part-time workers. They'll have access to 250 (mostly online) programs offered by about 40 colleges. 

__Two birds, one scone...__ It's no coincidence that two of America's largest retailers are upping their benefits now. The labor market is tight, so companies are sweetening the pot to attract workers. Covid fears, child care needs, and boosted unemployment benefits have prevented some employees from returning. Unemployment is still higher than pre-pandemic levels — but there are way more jobs than job seekers.

- __Record openings:__ Your local bistro wants its waiters back. Job openings [surged](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/job-openings-surge-above-10-million-for-first-time-ever-labor-department-says.html) above 10M for the first time ever in June, as employers scrambled to hire while the economy reopened. 
- __Record wages:__  The average pay for US supermarket and restaurant workers [topped](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/08/fifteen-dollar-wage/) $15/hour for the first time. 

_When Tarjay picks up the grad check [Ariel Skelley/DigitalVision via GettyImages]_

Grad

__The power dynamic has shifted...__ This year, you've probably seen more commercials targeted at __[DoorDash](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DASH)__ *drivers* than DoorDash customers. From __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__'s signing bonuses, to __[CVS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVS)__' wage raises, employers are catering more to workers' needs. Nearly 80% of US workers now [earn](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/08/fifteen-dollar-wage/) at least $15/hour, up from 60% in 2014. And it's not just lower-wage jobs: some bankers and other white-collar workers are [getting](https://www.ft.com/content/b33f3645-ff93-4309-a575-f92641faaa43) salary hikes — and even free Pelotons. 

Battle of the Benefits: Target and Walmart offer to pay 100% of college tuition for workers

__Tyson chicken nuggies are shaking…__ There’s a new poultry powerhouse on the scene. __Cargill__, whose wholesale food products end up in everything from baby formula to cat food, is the second-largest private company in the US (#flex). Now, it's partnering with __Continental Grain__ to snatch up __[Sanderson Farms](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SAFM)__, the US’ third-largest poultry producer (#doubleflex). Sanderson shares jumped 7% on news of the $4.5B acquisition. 

__The coop is hot…__ Demand for chicken is soaring, and wing prices have nearly tripled from last year. In the meat aisle, Cargill is known for its big beef business 一 not chicken. Now, it's paying an 11% premium to add Sanderson’s poultry to its cart. The goal: catch up to spiking demand while it's hot. 

- __Fry it__: __Popeyes__ viral fried chicken sandwich has helped sales skyrocket since it launched in 2019. Since then, __KFC__, __Wendy's__, __Burger King__, __McDonald's__, and even __Taco Bell__ have joined the lucrative Chicken Sandwich Wars.  
- __Deliver it:__ Dine-in chains like __Applebee’s__ and __Chili’s__ launched chicken wing delivery services to keep sales up during the pandemic. 
- __Love it:__ McD's crushed sales projections for its Crispy Chicken Sandwich last quarter, and [says](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/bkjHwzrYk5EcEFSxyJkR0/articles/4aphDTCDr8cY15EMFwfe9i/) it's only at the beginning of its  "multiyear chicken journey." 


Chicky

__It’s expensive to be late…__ Chicken was trending years before Popeyes ever fried a sandwich. It surpassed beef as America’s most popular meat in 2012, and has kept its favorite fowl status since. Case-in-point: __Chick-fil-A__ has earned more per restaurant than McDonald’s since 2018. Cargill missed the early chicken wagon. Instead of buying into the poultry trend low, it’s jumping in when prices are through the coop with a multi-billion dollar acquisition. 

Two food giants splurge $4.5B to get in on the Chicken Wars — but they're already late

👩‍🎓 Free tuition

__Butch Cassidy and the Crypto Kid...__ Crypto is traded 24/7 around the globe, without many rules to govern it. Many countries, including the US, want guardrails. Last week, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler [said](https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-will-police-cryptocurrencies-to-maximum-possible-extent-chair-gary-gensler-says-11628007567?mod=hp_lead_pos6) the Commission would try to maximize regulatory protection of the "Wild West" of crypto. Gensler [wants](https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-chief-gary-gensler-braces-for-clash-with-crypto-traders-11628164980) crypto to be regulated in the same way the SEC oversees securities (like: stocks, bonds).

- __What:__ Crypto markets and exchanges don't have the same controls and protections as the stock market. No single regulator oversees them.
- __Why:__ Many cryptocurrencies are classified as commodities, not securities. So, they're not under the purview of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- __But:__ Gensler believes many cryptos function like unregistered securities – and should be SEC-regulated.

__The good, the bad, and the cryptic...__ The total market cap of cryptocurrencies skyrocketed this year, as coins like __Bitcoin__, __Ether__, and __Dogecoin__ gained mainstream appeal. That's also led to more volatility, crypto scams, and money laundering. Now, more countries are considering crypto regulation  — or are already enforcing it.

- __The SEC wants to protect__ crypto investors against fraud and manipulation. That could mean crypto becomes less anonymous — and more regulated.
- __The EU already proposed tightening rules__ on crypto transfers to make sure they're traceable. Meanwhile, India is considering a crypto ban.

__TBD...__  Because of its limited purview, the SEC’s strategy has centered on suing token sellers case-by-case. Gensler is calling on US lawmakers to grant the SEC more power to oversee the industry. But regulation could take years.


_The "Wild West" of crypto [YinYang/E+ via GettyImages]_

Western

__The Crypto Paradox has arrived...__ Crypto's unregulated, decentralized, and hard-to-trace nature is core to its identity. Some enthusiasts want it to stay that way. But Gensler and some companies believe crypto's survival *depends* on regulation. Gensler says that just like traffic lights and speed limits helped make cars mainstream, oversight could boost trust in crypto and allow it to grow. Still, we don't know whether regulation might happen — or what it might look like if it does.


Crypto’s “Wild West” — what regulation could mean for retail investors and the industry 

__Delta rising...__ As the Delta variant spreads, Covid [restrictions](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5VqzV6kar5QHk6GFrWlah5/articles/3RbYhJD44eODlWoQm6lpsX/) are cropping back up. The CDC recommended re-masking indoors. Half of California is back under mandatory indoor mask mandates, and NYC is requiring proof of vax status for some indoor activities. Meanwhile, __[Home Depot](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HD)__, __[McDonald’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD)__, and __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__ are requiring many workers to mask up again. The chances of more lockdowns are low, but investors are worried Delta will slow the recovery.

__Weird sitch...__ The US unemployment rate is 5.9% — nearly double pre-pandemic levels. But there are still more jobs than job seekers, and employers are struggling to hire. Some reasons workers aren't returning: Covid fears, child care needs, and boosted unemployment benefits. Now, companies are doing more to sweeten the pot. __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__ and __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ will pay 100% of college tuition for their workers. And __[CVS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVS)__ is boosting its minimum wage over the next year to $15.


__Zooming in from the forest cabin...__ __[Airbnb](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ABNB)__ has been resilient during the pandemic by embracing the work-from-anywhere life. It [added](https://www.inc.com/justin-bariso/airbnb-just-made-a-huge-announcement-that-could-completely-change-travel-industry-heres-why-its-brilliant.html?utm_source=pocket_discover) a new feature that allows renters to search for flexible dates and destinations — including boats, farms, and shipping containers (?). Last quarter, Airbnb's sales even [beat](https://news.airbnb.com/airbnb-first-quarter-2021-financial-results/) *pre*-pandemic levels, as you staycationed in a yurt. We'll see if that favorable trend continues when Airbnb drops earnings on Thursday.

__Related to a Spanish king...__ That's cool to learn. But it could be life-saving to learn your chances of getting Alzheimer’s. __[23andMe](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ME)__ drops earnings on Friday — its first checkup as a public company. Shares of the home DNA testing company have plunged 20% since its February IPO, as fewer people bought its ancestry and health kits. But it’s building a longer-term revenue stream: partnering with pharma companies like __Genentech__ and __[GlaxoSmithKline](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GSK)__ to develop drugs with its trove of genetic data.  


- __[Diamonds](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/0doAwlqiCMvE3GhOH887y/articles/5R9lJpVDcFvT20TYdnVSdc/):__ Rihanna just gained billionaire-status thanks to her 50% stake in __Fenty Beauty__, as the celeb-preneur biz model thrives. 
- __[BNPL](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/68Ji759EUo3BnTZxw9mAj1/articles/4ged1i28lf9nr12iGW3oBC/):__ Jack Dorsey’s __Square__ dropped $29B on __Afterpay__, because "buy now, pay later" is Zillennials' favorite option.
- __[Shine](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/68Ji759EUo3BnTZxw9mAj1/articles/3JmT8UDjlzrJGFVsyC00jJ/):__ Reese Witherspoon sold her female-driven production company __Hello Sunshine__ for a reported $900M, as the content wars intensify.

💰 The Crypto Paradox

__Better have my money…__ Better yet: *my billions*. Rihanna was already the richest female musician on Earth, and second only to Oprah as the richest female entertainer. Now, the music icon has another title to put under her umbrella: billionaire.

- __Rihanna is now worth $1.7B,__ [according](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2021/08/04/fentys-fortune-rihanna-is-now-officially-a-billionaire/?sh=649c55417c96) to Forbes. But the badgal didn't gain unicorn-status because of music. RiRi hasn’t released an album since 2016.
- __The real diamonds lie in Fenty Beauty,__ Ri’s cosmetics company. An estimated $1.4B of her fortune comes from the value of Fenty – and her whopping 50% stake.
- __Good time to be Fenty:__  Beauty companies are thriving as makeup sales bounce back. Shares of __L’Oreal__ and __[Estee Lauder](https://robinhood.com/stocks/EL)__ are at record highs, and smaller brands like __Beautycounter__ are becoming unicorns. 

__Contour stick in "mocha"...__ Fenty launched in 2017 as a 50-50 joint venture with French luxury giant __LVMH__, which owns 75 brands — including Dior, Bulgari, Dom Pérignon, and Sephora. At its debut, Fenty was hailed as [groundbreaking](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/CrkWZvVykUuLF5aEygExj/articles/2wgQNzq2ejrClp6Bdj6bWV/) for offering 40 inclusive foundation shades, many of which sold out in days.

- __Instant glow-up:__ By 2018, Fenty generated more than $550M in annual sales, beating out Kylie Cosmetics and Kim Kardashian’s KKW Beauty.
- __Shining bright:__ Fenty has gained popularity on Sephora shelves, and expanded into skincare last year.


Diamonds

__Celeb-preneurship is thriving..__ The *old* celeb model: stars getting paid to put their name and face behind a brand's product. The new model: stars own the products and their marketing. Instead of promoting *other* brands, celeb-preneurs leverage their massive followings to push their own – like Rihanna with her 103M Insta followers. That's led to successes: Kim K & Kylie's beauty companies are worth $1B+, Jessica Alba’s __[Honest Co](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HNST)__ just IPO’d, and Jay-Z's __Tidal__ was snatched by __[Square](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SQ)__.

Rihanna gains billionaire-status thanks to Fenty, as the celeb-preneur biz model thrives

__Don't forget the vax card…__ In some bars and concert venues, it's becoming as common as a 21+ ID check. Many locations, and all of NYC, are requiring proof of vax status for indoor activities like working out or dining. That’s good news for __[Clear Secure](https://robinhood.com/stocks/YOU)__, TSA PreCheck's techier cousin. Clear shares have soared 74% since it IPO'd in June. 

- __Clear makes biometric kiosks__ that scan you through exclusive security lines at 38 US airports and 26 sports and entertainment venues — for $179/year. 

__Where there’s a wait…__ there's a way. Last year’s pandemic shutdowns were hard on Clear. As flights and Ariana Grande concerts were canceled, Clear's revenue plunged 50% from March to April 2020. Then, Clear saw a light at the end of the terminal: Covid tests and vaccines presented a key opportunity to expand beyond IDs for flying. So it got to work:

- __Health Pass:__  In June last year, Clear launched a product that links Covid health info to biometric identifiers like faces, eyeballs, and fingerprints.
-  __Now,__ Health Pass is also a digital vax card that can be used to enter a growing number of locations. Including: NBA arenas, theaters, offices, restaurants, and casinos.


_Should've checked in with your eyeballs [Don Mason/The Image Bank via GettyImages]_

Pass

__IDs could be next in the contactless revolution…__ Clear isn't stopping at airport lines — it wants your eyeballs to be your ID at work, at happy hour, and at the doc's office. Just like contactless payments are making wallets and cash obsolete, biometric IDs could make your driver's license obsolete. Companies like IBM and Mastercard are working on their own digital health IDs. The biometric ID market is growing — it's expected to more than double from $20B last year to $44B by 2026. 


As travel revs up, Clear Security is taking its digital ID beyond the airport security line

🦄  Rihanna's unicorn status 

__While you feel scrolly-tappy...__ Digital ad giants like Facebook feel cash-happy. As the economy reopens, marketers are itching to reunite you with their jeans and lipsticks — *so they're bombing your feed with ads*. Much of Big Tech's blowout earnings last quarter were driven by hot demand for digital ad real estate.

- __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__'s ad sales grew an impressive 46%, while Google's grew 69% — YouTube ad sales grew even faster, as you memorized car commercials.
- __[Snap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)__'s quarterly sales more than *doubled* from last year, and Twitter's soared 74%
- __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__, which is newer to the ad game, saw its ad revenue more than double. 

__The digital ad pie is growing...__ and legacy media wants a bigger slice. Legacy orgs like __[Comcast](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CMCSA)__'s NBC and __[AT&T](https://robinhood.com/stocks/T)__'s WarnerMedia *used* to pull in big bucks from TV spots. But as social apps and streaming services replace OG TV, cable cord-cutting has accelerated. So during the pandemic, legacy networks launched their own streamers to boost ad bucks. So far, their efforts are promising:

- __NBCUniversal__'s ad sales rebounded 32%, thanks in part to its new streamer Peacock, which now has 20M+ users.
- __WarnerMedia's__ ad sales jumped 50% last quarter, as it [launched](https://www.thewrap.com/att-earnings-hbo-max-ad-supported-launch-warnermedia-q2/) an ad-supported version of its HBO Max streaming service (feat. *Friends: The Reunion*). 
- __[Discovery](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DISCA),__ which owns Food Network and HGTV, posted strong ad revenue growth, [bolstered](https://variety.com/2021/tv/news/discovery-earnings-advertising-streaming-1235033348/) by its new streamer Discovery Plus.


(Ad)

__Ads follow eyeballs...__ and eyeballs are glued to digital. Five of the world's largest tech companies owned nearly *half* of all global ad sales last year. Big Tech's ad-vantage: massive audiences, precise targeting, and direct-buying features. Legacy media's advantage: thousands of shows, movies, and live programming to offer on streaming — with a side of ads. Going forward, we'll see if legacy TV media focuses on ad revenue vs. subscriptions. Streaming leader __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__ still hasn't touched ads.   


The digital ad market is on fire — now, legacy media orgs want a slice of Big Tech's pie

__Subtle...__ On Tuesday, Chinese state media called video games “spiritual opium” and an “electronic drug.” The harsh labels sent shares of Chinese company __[Tencent](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TCEHY)__, the world’s second-largest video game maker, down 10%. Then, Tencent limited kids’ playing time to just an hour per weekday — even harsher. 

__Mounting pressure…__ China’s regulation of tech companies has intensified over the past year. In November, China canceled fintech giant __Ant's__ $34B IPO — and made it pay a record $2.8B fine for “monopolistic acts.” In June, China banned ride-hailer __[Didi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIDI)__ from adding new users — the stock has plunged 40% since. Now, China’s tech interference has expanded even further:

- __Food:__ China is now requiring food delivery companies to pay local minimum wages. China’s #1 food deliverer __Meituan__ lost $60B in market cap *in two days* in July.
- __Education:__ China banned private tutoring companies from: making profits, raising money from foreign investors, *and* going public. 
- __TLDR:__ China's moves have rattled investors, sending the country's tech index down as much as 9% last week. Meanwhile, Goldman just slashed its 12-month forecast for Chinese stocks by 20%.


Cracking

__China’s willing to stifle tech growth…__ to retain control. In a speech last year, Chinese President Xi laid out why China's willing to clamp down on some companies — *but not others*. Apps that provide services like ride-sharing and group chats are nice-to-have. But China's national greatness depends on manufacturing. For Xi, that means chip-makers, car-makers, and telecoms need to thrive. 


Video game companies are the latest to feel the heat from China’s big tech crackdown

_Sensing an ad presence [YinYang/E+ via GettyImages]_

🍰 Big Tech's big ad slice 

__Moving through the Greek alphabet…__ Covid variants. But one has been taking over headlines this summer: the Delta variant  has led to a surge in hospitalizations among the unvaccinated. The CDC says Delta now makes up [83%](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/20/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html) of new US corona cases — it's 50% more contagious than the original Alpha strain.  Now, Covid restrictions are cropping back up across the country, both from the government *and* companies.

- __On the gov't side:__ Last week, the CDC recommended re-masking indoors, even for people who are vaxed. Meanwhile, [half](https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article253196143.html) of California is back under mandatory indoor mask mandates. 
- __On the private side:__ This week, __[Home Depot](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HD)__, __[McDonald’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD)__, and __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__ said they would [require](https://www.wsj.com/articles/target-to-require-staff-to-wear-masks-in-high-covid-19-counties-11627920605) workers to wear masks in many locations, regardless of vax status. __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ and __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS)__ are even requiring some workers to get the shot. 

__Compare it...__ The March 2020 shutdowns led to the US’ biggest quarterly GDP drop *ever*. It’s not clear how much Delta could impact the economy — but it’s not expected to be nearly as severe, since 70% of US adults are vaxed now. While the chances of more US lockdowns are low, investors are worried Delta will slow the recovery:

- __The US economy__ has experienced impressive growth this year. But it's expected to cool from here, as global shortages and Delta put a damper on the boom.  
- __The labor market__ is already tight, and Delta could make it worse. Businesses could be *more* strapped for workers if employees get sick — or avoid returning due to Delta fears or mask mandates.  


__First, there were carrots…__ now, there are sticks. From free Krispy Kreme donuts to Lakers tickets, companies and governments dangled freebies and incentives this spring to get people vaxed. This summer, it's more of a stick approach: be vaxed, or be left out. __Equinox__, __SoulCycle__, and __Danny Meyer__ restaurants are requiring vax cards to enter some locations. NYC is making people to show their vax status to dine. And __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ employees must be vaccinated if they want to return to the office for that free sushi. 


Delta on the rise: what that could mean for stocks, businesses, and the economy

__Hold the pulp...__ Tropicana, America's top refrigerated OJ brand, was founded in 1947 by an Italian immigrant who arrived in the US with $25. In 1998, __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP)__ bought it for $3.3B. Now, Pepsi is [selling](https://www.wsj.com/articles/pepsico-to-sell-tropicana-naked-juice-brands-to-private-equity-firm-11627984801) Tropicana, Naked, and other juice brands in North America for... $3.3B. 

- __Sour on sugar:__ Pepsi said the deal will allow it to focus on its growing portfolio of healthier snacks and zero-calorie bevs. Like: Bubly sparkling water and Gatorade Zero. 
- __Functional-first:__ As consumer preferences shift, Pepsi has been investing in "functional beverages" — drinks that provide *more* than just sugar, enhanced by a healthy(ish) touch. 

__Add the B vitamins...__  As sugar loses steam, bev giants are replacing sodas and juices with vitamin-packed energy drinks and enhanced waters with a "purpose." The global market for functional bevs is expected to hit $130.5B this year, up 8% from last year. These premium drinks also command higher prices than your average can of carbonated syrup. 

- __Relax:__ Last year, Pepsi intro’d Driftwell — water enhanced with magnesium and L-theanine for relaxation (ASMR in a can). 
- __Energize:__ Pepsi also bought Rockstar Energy for $4B, and launched new versions featuring Hemp and B Vitamins. 
- __Cleanse:__ In January, Pepsi partnered with Beyond Meat for plant-based snacks and drinks. It's also tried to "health-ify" its own brands with  Lay's baked chips, Quaker breakfast bars, and Sabra hummus cups.  


_Extreme functionality [EXTREME-PHOTOGRAPHER/E+ via GettyImages]_

__Brands are investments...__ Individual investors make strategic decisions with limited funds — large conglomerates do something similar. Pepsi just rebalanced its "portfolio" of bevs to favor faster-growing, more profitable categories. In Pepsi's own words, it engaged in: "Portfolio Optimization For Juice Businesses." __[Coke](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO)__ did the same during the pandemic, cutting the cord on underperforming brands like Odwalla juice. 


Pepsi sells Tropicana and other juices to double down on "functionality" in its portfolio

 💉 The Delta effect

__Insert Twitter side-eye…__ Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey just treated his *other* company __[Square](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SQ)__ to a massive shopping spree. Mobile payments company Square is Jack Dorsey's more valuable (and favorite) child. You might've seen Square's sleek payment tablets at craft coffee shops, or swiped your card through its little white reader at food trucks. Now, Square is [buying](https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/01/tech/square-afterpay-intl-hnk/index.html) “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) firm __Afterpay__ for a whopping $29B — its largest acquisition yet. 

- __BNPL:__ Afterpay lets you pay for things *after* you've purchased them (makes sense). Like __Klarna__ and __[Affirm](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AFRM)__, Afterpay spreads out payments as interest-free monthly installments.
- __The deal will give Square__ merchants the ability to offer BNPL services at checkout. Square also gets instant access to 100K merchants who use Affirm, and its 16M+ customers.  

__Good time to BNPL...__ Square stock jumped 10% on the news, while Afterpay soared 35%. Square shares have doubled in the past year, as people ditched cash during the pandemic. Now, it'll have a BNPL service to add to its digital payment offerings. And BNPL has been #trending.

- __Gen Zillennial momentum:__ As Gen Z and Millennial consumers reject credit cards in favor of alt-payment options, BNPL is becoming a big businesses. 
- __Receipts:__ This summer, Klarna [hit](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1TtUXZyHvZ2SETOZOaUYq7/articles/2wpby5ZPzAfks9OlK1Syl/) a $46B valuation to become Europe's most valuable fintech. Meanwhile, __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ and __[Goldman Sachs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GS)__ are collabing on their own BNPL product.


_Buy now, pay four centuries later [YuriArcurs/E+ via GettyImages]_

Later

__Payment options affect purchasing behavior…__ Nearly [half](https://www.forbes.com/sites/andriacheng/2020/12/16/why-retailers-are-embracing-buy-now-pay-later-service-this-holiday-season/#:~:text=Its%20study%20found%20that%2042,have%20used%20a%20BNPL%20service) of Gen Z shoppers and 70% of Millennials are more likely to make a purchase if they can BNPL it.  And since Square makes money off each card swipe and transaction,  it wants to go where purchasing goes: Bank of America predicts the market for BNPL could grow 10 to 15X by 2025. 

Square drops $29B on Afterpay, because "buy now, pay later" is Zillennials' favorite option

__Elle Woods got a Harvard JD...__ And Reese Witherspoon got a Blackstone-backed acquisition. The actress and entrepreneur is [selling](https://www.wsj.com/articles/reese-witherspoons-hello-sunshine-to-be-sold-to-media-company-backed-by-blackstone-11627914600?mod=hp_lead_pos2) her media company, __Hello Sunshine__, to a media venture that's backed by famous investment firm __[Blackstone](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BX)__. The deal values Hello Sunshine at $900M, according to WSJ's people familiar with the matter (#PFWTM). The almost-unicorn will be profitable this year — more than most startups can say.  

- __The creds:__ Witherspoon has co-produced TV and movie hits like *Big Little Lies*, *Little Fires Everywhere*, and *Gone Girl*.
- __The cats:__ The new media venture that's snatching up HS will be run by former Disney execs, including ex-TikTok CEO Kevin Mayer.

__Toss out the old script...__ Witherspoon started Hello Sunshine in 2016 in response to a lack of complex female roles in Hollywood. She noticed that even top actresses had to compete for one-dimensional characters. While male writers and directors still make up three-fourths of Hollywood, Hello Sunshine focuses on female creators and stories with strong female leads. 

- __The Hello Sunshine deal is an endorsement__ of Witherspoon's bet that Hollywood needs more stories told by and for women.
- The acquiring firm will be able to license Hello Sunshine productions to any streamer or network (think: Hulu, HBO) — an edge over studios that only feed their own streaming services.

Sunny

__Creator > Content...__ It's the same idea as: "if you give a man a fish, he'll be hungry tomorrow — if you *teach* him how to fish"... he'll be feasting for years. There's a land-grab going on in Hollywood for high-quality movies and shows. Streamers and studios are scrambling to feed their content-hungry platforms. Instead of buying rights to *others'* content, acquisitions provide a long-term pipeline. More production companies could be snatched up as the content competition continues.
