__Facebook vs. many government lawyers…__ The FTC and 46 states sued Facebook [back](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3W2qDBQC1zd66GBLGKcPH5/articles/btPa9ZLG0TKdCGgtFoeSA/) in December, arguing it unfairly maintained its monopoly status (in social media, DMs, and likes/comments) by crushing competition and buying rivals. The government asked that Facebook unwind Instagram and WhatsApp, separating them as different companies. 

- __Facebook’s lawyers filed a motion to dismiss__, fearing an expensive legal fight and a heartbreaking goodbye to Insta.
- __Yesterday, the judge granted the dismissal.__

__But, the judge [critiqued](https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-judge-dismisses-government-antitrust-lawsuits-against-facebook-11624907747?mod=hp_lead_pos1) the government’s complaint, not the case...__ The judge said the government’s complaint failed to identify an actual violation of antitrust law. “[Legally insufficient](https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/facebook0628.pdf)” were his exact words about the evidence. The judge also gave the government a chance to amend its complaint within 30 days. 

- __That didn’t temper Wall Street joy...__ FB surged 4% to a record high. Add up all of FB’s stock today, and it’s worth more than $1T. The $1T club includes Apple, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco, Amazon, Google, and now –  Facebook. 


$1 trillion company launch party [Morsa Images via GettyImages]

Suit

__FB won the battle, but there could still be a war...__ Last week, a House Committee advanced six bills that would crackdown on what many in Congress have called unfair play by tech giants. Yesterday, a federal judge said that existing antitrust law — which was written 100 years ago — doesn’t paint Facebook as doing anything wrong. That gives FB some short-term breathing room, but could motivate Congress to change antitrust law. *21st century tech requires 21st century antitrust laws.* New talking points could be coming. 

Judge dismisses FTC case against Facebook. But the victory could motivate the social giant’s foes in Congress 

__Throwback to 2006…__ Honda’s stock is at the same place it was 15 years ago. The Japanese car legend has been coasting in neutral, without an electric or self-driving plan — Until now. Honda just announced its first [fully electric car](https://www.autonews.com/marketing/honda-will-call-its-gm-based-ev-prologue?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) (“The Prologue”) and plans to be [100% electric](https://hondanews.com/en-US/honda-corporate/releases/release-32797eaea7316f1bed4bfcd27919f703-honda-targets-100-ev-sales-in-north-america-by-2040-makes-new-commitments-to-advances-in-environmental-and-safety-technology) in North America by 2040 (FYI: Nothing excites car shoppers like a literary reference in a vehicle name).

__But one weird thing...__ Honda’s not building the new Prologue — General Motors is taking care of that. This goes back to a “[strategic](https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/home.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2020/sep/0903-mou.html) alliance” announced last year. But Honda’s kind of acting like Robin saying they’re cofighting crime with Batman.

- __Awkward:__ Honda’s first electric car will be [pumped](https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/gm-build-honda-ev-mexico-acura-ev-tenn-sources-say) out of GM’s Mexico plant.
- __Awkwarder:__ Even its higher-end Acura electric will come from GM’s Tennessee plant.
- __Awkwardest:__ Honda says it has designed the “exteriors and interiors” — But GM’s making the batteries and powertrain, and running the assembly.

Electric

__Is it an alliance or a dependence?...__ So far, it’s not clear if GM is teaching Honda how to drive electric, or if GM is in the process of it slowly taking over. Honda claims it won’t rely on GM forever and will make its own Prologue after 2024. But Honda is also in the middle of a 15-year stretch of stagnation, without  electric or fully self-driving mojo. So GM could be helping Honda complete the transition to 100% electric. Or maybe this “alliance” could develop into a longer-term dependence.

Honda finally announced its first EV — But someone else is making the car

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

🏆 FB's $1T win

1. __America's booming recovery...__ Cue the "[revenge spending](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2lFqgJt0AfN3zJsbqdxm7m/articles/17MF35F4AhEUwPGvF1qKzt/)." The US economy is roaring back to life and is expected to grow [6.5%](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-u-s-economy-roars-back-life-in-many-poor-countries-gets-worse-11617874201) this year, its highest rate since the '80s. Thank the US' massive stockpile of Covid vaccines for the glow-up — oh, and *$5.3T* worth of gov't stimulus. This year, Americans are spending more on restaurants, flights, and *non*-stretchy clothes (pajamas are about to enter a recession). US plane traveler volume is back to three-quarters of 2019 levels, up from 25% a year ago. But the reopening economy has also been driving inflation and shortages. And while the US recovers, poorer nations are falling [further](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/64VKtgKZkaaZZmAmaD67OM/articles/4D1D5CUdIwzesT1nTfvvJM/) behind. 

2. __The rise of alt-coins...__ This year, crypto mainstreamification is going far beyond Bitcoin: we call it "[coin crowding](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/dLcrQb1mMJkJggNDpsdYE/articles/2ZsEiE2UH2RHJdVHispio6/)." In January, BTC made up 70% of total crypto value — now, it makes up 45%. Alt-coins like Ethereum and Doge have picked up crypto market share, dimming BTC's spotlight. Smaller coins like DigiByte, VeChain and SafeMoon have also gained traction – and then there's [influencer coins](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/04/20747194/how-bitclout-aims-to-let-people-bet-on-twitter-influencers-using-creator-coins).  As BTC's environmental impact comes under scrutiny, "green" alternatives like Chia are getting attention, too.  Coin crowding is a new phenomenon with high volatility risk, and the long-term outcomes are still unclear.

3. __Big Tech's antitrust problems...__ have gotten a whole lot anti-er. This year, regulators are bringing real heat. Since the Apple-Epic [trial](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5mrz8IgUB1Bjuc9ILsHQOj/articles/4GARoezVkzR6VmTXvlwEa1/) in May, the temp has gone from steam room to sauna. Just last week, a House committee [advanced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5tRYnsRgn3rJ4caqG3lXnl/articles/1RLuAoU5YouPqt1GL30lzZ/) major legislation to curb Big Tech's dominance. The headliner: a bill that would prohibit tech companies from playing favorites with their own products (think: Apple apps on App Store, Basics on Amazon). Meanwhile, newly confirmed FTC leader Lina Khan is a Big Tech critic who could expand the scope of antitrust enforcement. Blocked acquisition and even tech breakups seem more plausible.

_Inflation has been #trending — here's where some of the price jumps happened (source: BLS)_

Themes

The Big Picture: three key themes that defined the first half

- __1.9M:__ Global Covid deaths from January to June, already [higher](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-deaths-this-year-have-already-eclipsed-2020s-toll-11623350773) than 2020's toll.
- __57%:__ Percentage of US adults who have been fully vaccinated.
- __~$2.5K:__ The [average](https://www.wsj.com/articles/millions-are-unemployed-why-cant-companies-find-workers-11620302440?mod=hp_lead_pos1) monthly unemployment payout with boosted benefits, extended until September. 
- __-20%:__ Fall in the stock price of the 50 biggest SPACs this year.
- __5,000%:__ Surge in the price of Dogecoin this year so far. 


Numbers

The Numbers: five big numbers that defined the first half

1. __Inflation's effect on stocks...__ Will it have one? If the first half of the year were a hashtag, it would be #flated. For most of the year, investors worried that the Fed would raise interest rates sooner than expected to tamp down rising prices as the economy revved up (see: our chart above). This month, the Fed suggested it would do just that (ETA: 2023). Higher interest rates can make stocks less attractive compared to less risky assets like bonds and savings accounts. Despite the #flated sitch, stocks are at records highs. But if inflation starts to look like a trend rather than a one-time reopening blip, that could change. 

2. __Big tax hikes for corporations...__ Will they actually happen? This month, G7 countries came to a historic [agreement](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1vHKAgE3hJdaCFv0cdJNIm/articles/6v5vQpqDdzXIWNmx3Oc9VL/): multinational companies should pay a minimum tax rate of at least 15% in each country in which they operate. That could hurt Big Tech companies like __Google__ and __Amazon__, who've  been plopping their international HQs in countries with low corporate tax rates. Meanwhile, President Biden wants to [raise](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2FGYY02td4t3rp9KjKvLQM/articles/1d7eiIZp8iwgUI9aKXGIQZ/) the corporate tax rate in the US to 28% from 21% to fund trillions worth of proposals. Neither of these tax hikes have passed yet, and they'll likely get pushback — but they've become  more likely.

3. __Economic competition with China...__ Can the US stay #1? With its tech power and growing international influence, China’s becoming a bigger economic threat to the US economy. This month, the Senate approved a $250B bill to subsidize Made In USA  R&D for key industries of the future (think: tech, chips). The bipartisan goal: *keep the US competitive against China*. Then, G7 countries announced “Build Back Better World”: a Biden-inspired partnership to rival China's "Belt and Road" initiative by financing infrastructure projects in developing countries. 

Future

Looking ahead: three major questions for the rest of the year

🍪 The Midyear Review

__"Not vibes"...__ Big Tech's current thought bubble. Antitrust issues have dominated the news for a long time, but this week turned up the heat in a big way. Yesterday, a House committee approved sweeping legislation to curb the dominance of __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__, __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__, and their Big Tech frenemies. 

- __Six-bill package:__ Not the kind Bezos likes to receive. Of the six bills that were advanced, one hits hardest: legislation that would prohibit Big Tech companies from playing favorites with their own products on their platforms. 
- __Think:__ Apple not promoting Apple Music over Spotify in the App Store, and Amazon not favoring Amazon Basics in search results. 
- __Buuuut:__ The bills still need to pass the full House to become law, and tech giants are lobbying [harder](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/22/technology/amazon-apple-google-facebook-antitrust-bills.html) than ever to make sure they don't.

__More tech woes...__ The legislation would also give federal agencies like the FTC way more muscle to block Big Tech acquisitions of startups (like FB & Instagram nine years ago). Last week: Big Tech [critic](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2Z4BofvGDzgoroXZ4OTaiL/articles/75lgUHK9VCoHmFBsxK4D6C/) Lina Khan was sworn in to lead the FTC, the US gov't agency that enforces antitrust laws. 

- Google and Apple say the bills could bring significant security concerns, while making the user experience worse. 
- While the legislation has bipartisan support, critics in Congress say it would give too much power to the government in Big Tech operations. 


_Big Tech's bad news week [AdShooter/E+ via GettyImages]_

Anti

__Antitrust just got a whole lot anti-er...__ That could hit Big Tech where it hurts: in the balance sheet. The aggressiveness of tech lobbying shows how serious of a threat these developments are. If the bills pass, that might make room for smaller companies to compete. 


Big Tech is feeling serious heat: feat. six major antitrust bills and a new FTC head

__What Twilight character are you?...__ Jacob SPAC. __BuzzFeed__ announced plans to go public via SPAC-quisition, which would value the combined company at $1.5B — $200M less than BuzzFeed was worth in 2016. BuzzFeed also plans to buy digital publisher __Complex__ for $300M. Its goal: become a digital media giant. 

__Sad listicle...__ Digital media companies have been struggling for years to compete with __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__, __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__, and ad newbie __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ — aka: where most of the advertising bucks go. 15-year-old BuzzFeed is no exception to the struggle, with missed revenue targets and layoffs on its record. Now it's hungry for mergers.

- __Last year,__ BuzzFeed acquired HuffPost from Verizon. And its CEO [reportedly](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/23/business/media/buzzfeed-spac-deal.html) held talks to merge with competitors including Vice, Vox, and PopSugar-owner Group Nine. Now it's getting Complex. 
- __In BF's own words:__ "With this acquisition, BuzzFeed becomes even better-positioned to thrive in an age of media consolidation." 


Rollup

__Big Media might be necessary...__ to survive in a Big Tech world. The Facebook-Google-Amazon "triopoly" ate nearly [90%](https://www.wsj.com/articles/buzzfeed-nears-deal-to-go-public-via-spac-eyeing-digital-media-rollup-11624485898) of the digital-ad market last year, up from 80% in 2019. BuzzFeed thinks there's power in numbers, so it's rallying digital media companies under its umbrella to take on the triopoly. SPAC cash could help it make future acquisitions. But even with those, it's unclear if it can succeed long-term. 

BuzzFeed is going public via SPAC-quisition in a bid to compete with the "triopoly"

📵 Big Tech's big antitrust moment

__1 for Nadella, 0 for Bezos...__ Not Amazon, not Google, but *Microsoft* just [became](https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/22/tech/microsoft-2-trillion-market-cap/index.html) the second American company to ever hit a $2T market cap. It's also the third company to *ever* join the $2T "Platinum Pegasus Club." __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ doubled its market value in just two years, partly thanks to corona-conomy demand. WFH and school-from-home boosted Microsoft's cloud services, gaming consoles, and PCs.

- __+65%:__ How much MSFT stock has soared since the beginning of March last year. 
- __+19%:__ How much Microsoft's sales grew last quarter compared to March 2020. 
- __$2T:__ MSFT is worth more than half as much as the entire German stock market. 

__To the Windows...__ Today, Microsoft will finally [unveil](https://www.axios.com/microsoft-windows-event-91399ef2-beaf-4afd-8b78-7d7bf78a116e.html) a new version of Windows OS, which is losing market share to Apple's Mac OS & Google’s Chrome OS. In 2010, Windows ran on 98% of the world’s computers — today, it runs on 73%. Windows made Bill Gates rich, but it's no longer Microsoft's biggest profit puppy. How Microsoft makes its $$$, by category:

- __Cloud = 36% of sales:__ Server products and cloud services are booming. Microsoft's Azure cloud revenue grew 50% last quarter. 
- __Productivity and Biz Apps = 33% of sales:__ That includes Office subscriptions. But the fastest growers were Dynamics cloud (+26%) and LinkedIn (+25%).
- __Personal computing = 31% of sales:__ Xbox was the fastest grower last quarter (+34%), Surface grew 12%, and Windows/PCs grew just 10%.  


Cloud

__Microsoft might not be as exciting...__ as some of its tech peers — but it's *necessary* for many of the world's companies. Instead of focusing on delightful features (think: emojis, filters, and eye-catching designs), Microsoft is focused on basic but crucial biz necessities. That's why so many companies still depend on it today. Now, business cloud and productivity tools are its biggest growth drivers. Those dull but necessary tools helped it notch a massive $2T valuation. 

Microsoft hits a $2T market cap, joining Apple in the "Platinum Pegasus Club" 

__"You're breaking up on the Zoom..."__ Tends to happen when you're on an RV rolling through a prairie. RV icon __[Winnebago Industries](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WGO)__ is the #2 motor home company by market share, after __[Thor Industries](https://robinhood.com/stocks/THO)__. Winnebago just dropped a record quarter, as you worked-from-Winnebago while crusing through America's heartland. 

- __Record quarterly sales:__ Winnebago pulled in nearly $1B last quarter, more than double what it made in the same quarter last year. 
- __Record backlogs:__ Backlog orders more than tripled from 2020, reflecting sustained strong demand. 

__Slack status: #vanlife...__ While the US economy reopens and domestic travel nears pre-pandemic levels, much of the world remains Covid-closed. Instead of European getaways, Americans are embracing  the great outdoors at home. Winnebago's president calls it “consumer engagement in the outdoor lifestyle." We call it van life. 

- __Overnight stay at Yellowstone...__ Perfect for the RV. 237M Americans visited national parks in 2020, and 15 parks set new visitation records. 
- __RV sales__ are [expected](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rv-rentals-during-the-pandemic-a-boon-for-vehicle-owners-in-2020-and-beyond-301189755.html) to have a record year, surpassing 2020 sales as demand continues. Some people are [buying](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rv-rentals-during-the-pandemic-a-boon-for-vehicle-owners-in-2020-and-beyond-301189755.html) motorhomes only to cash in on the rental opp (#AirbnRV). 

_Van life strong [Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via GettyImages]_

RVacay

__Investors want to see it to believe it...__ despite Winnebago's record quarter, record backlog, and an upbeat outlook for RVs, Winnebago’s stock is down 25% since March — so is rival Thor’s. Winnebago and Thor think RV'ing is a lifestyle, not just a pandemic trend. But as the US returns to normalcy, investors don't seem so convinced yet.

Winnebago drops a record quarter, but investors aren't convinced the RV boom will last

💼 Microsoft's $2T moment

__It's a party in the TSA...__ The number of people passing through US airport checkpoints is back to [75%](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) of 2019 levels, the highest since pre-lockdowns. A year ago, they were barely at 25% of pre-pandemic levels. Airlines are enjoying a travel comeback as Americans get vaccinated — but travelers are getting a side of problems along with their roasted peanuts. 

__Precheck won't help you...__ when the pilot is MIA. Airlines are dealing with a shortage of pilots and airport workers. Now that demand is back, airlines can't flip the pilot switch so quickly. Pilots who were furloughed or took leaves of absence during the pandemic have to be retrained — so do other workers, including those who check planes. The shortage is magnified when bad weather and other disruptions come up. That's resulted in:

- __Delays:__ Nearly [10K](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/21/business/airlines-airports-delays.html) flights were delayed in the US on Sunday. __[Southwest](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LUV)__ had the most delays, with 30% of flights running late. 
- __Cancellations:__ __[American Airlines](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAL)__ had significant cancellations on Sunday, and proactively canceled 1K flights set for July.


_Didn't miss this part [MediaProduction/E+ via GettyImages]_

Delayed

__Prepare for bailout backlash...__ Besides the pilot panic, airlines are enjoying their comeback. And now they're raising prices: flight prices jumped 7% in May from April, and were up 24% from May of last year. Consumers are angry about the cancellations, delays, and higher prices. But they could be angriest when they remember that airlines got a $50B bailout from taxpayers. Politicians [sense](https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20210622&instance_id=33571&nl=dealbook&productCode=DK&regi_id=83712167&segment_id=61368&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Fe3ee401f-c28b-5463-a8a3-3bc39fa4e6e6&user_id=05114d149fce45660cf01aea64f5af7e) public support for imposing additional costs on bailout recipients. That could include forcing airlines to keep flight schedules they say they can’t maintain, or raising wages. 

Airlines' Comeback: complete with cancellations, delays, and rising fares

__Loving the marble countertops...__ __[Blackstone](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BX)__ is a major investment firm, but it also knows a thing or two about landlord-ing: it owns $378B worth of real estate, including Chicago's Willis Tower and Vegas' MGM Grand. Now it's splurging on single-family homes. Blackstone is [dropping](https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackstone-bets-6-billion-on-buying-and-renting-homes-11624359600) $6B to buy __Home Partners of America__, a company that buys and rents 17K+ homes. Home Partners also offers tenants a chance to buy their rental. ICYMI: home-buying is *trending*.

__Some like it hot...__ Housing market, style. Last year, US home sales soared at their fastest pace in 14 years. Fueling the wild demand: mortgages  are cheaper thanks to lower interest rates, and remote/flexible work is allowing people to move to the 'burbs. Recently, that's led to:

- __Record high prices:__ The median price for existing homes topped a [record](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/22/us-existing-home-sales-may-2021.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar) $350K for the first time last month, up 24% from last year.
- __Slower sales:__ In May, existing home sales [dropped](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/22/us-existing-home-sales-may-2021.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar) for a fourth straight month on sky-high prices and low availability (#house-shortage). 


__Blackstone's investment shows confidence...__ in the continued rise of the housing market. While sales are slowing, the market is still red-hot — and [home-lennials](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/O7yzw6jXShqJUuYBrv1Ox/articles/JhP43H0BbxOiUPoatWxvC/) are expected to continue fueling growth for years to come. But a surge could price out regular families, while driving up rent prices (higher rent = great for Blackstone). A number of factors could cool the housing market's rise, including interest rate fears, inflation, and rising prices. 


Blackstone drops $6B in a bet on the hot housing market — but it could cool 

 🛫 The big airline comeback

__Mine, uncrafted...__ China's not playing games. Bitcoin [plunged](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/bitcoin-btc-price-drops-on-china-crypto-mining-crackdown.html) to a two-week low yesterday after China cracked down on miners. Chinese authorities reportedly ordered a halt to crypto mining, forcing the shutdown of many mining "farms."  China already bans companies from offering crypto-related services — *but this crackdown is next-level*: 

- __Strike #1:__ An estimated ~90% of China's Bitcoin mining capacity has been shut down.
- __Strike #2:__ China set up "[snitching hotlines](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/bitcoin-mining-china-crypto-america/2021/06/17/0a39c3a8-c903-11eb-8708-64991f2acf28_story.html)"  to report anyone pumping out BTC.
- __Strike #3:__  China urged __Alipay__ and other major banks to kill any crypto trading. 

__Much coin energy...__ An estimated 65% of global Bitcoin mining happens in China. Mining computers use [mountains](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4xclkSJaYAU12PaicjZrLh/articles/4OCWE9kGhme60DCcKsfIUl/) of electricity to validate transactions and mine new coins. China relies heavily on coal power, so that electricity burns *a lot* of "dirty" energy. Now, China is cracking down to help meet its climate goals. The authoritarian state also doesn't *love* the decentralized nature of BTC ([#digiyuan-only](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gmxJQUqpvzHWE4CeHvylQ/articles/1UVV5lKmuNvZyE2FiTurJg/)). 

- __Mass mine-gration:__ Miners have started [exiting](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/bitcoin-mining-china-crypto-america/2021/06/17/0a39c3a8-c903-11eb-8708-64991f2acf28_story.html) China to move operations to the US, where energy is cleaner but pricier. 
- __Already here:__ American mining companies, like __Riot Blockchain__ and __Marathon Digital__, have been growing. Riot's mining revenue nearly [10X'd](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_fb8837feff2d896c04dd67f9e3403854/riotblockchain/news/2021-05-17_Riot_Blockchain_Reports_Record_First_Quarter_2021__107.pdf) to $23M last quarter. 


Mined

__The digital is physical...__ Websites, photos, and docs that live in the cloud really "live" in massive server farms. Likewise, digital currencies like Bitcoin need swaths of computer networks to exist. A "mine-gration" from China, coupled with the growth of American miners, could bring industrial-scale mining to the US. That requires vast amounts of land, water, and electricity. While that could be good for mining companies, it will likely raise more enviro concerns. 


Bitcoin plunges after China cracks down on mining: mass "mine-gration" could be coming

__Return of the samples...__ Nothing sweeter than a free Lindt chocolate. While Amazon Prime Day(s) are in full swing, __Costco__ is still winning over hearts and shopping carts with its old-school approach. Online sales make up only 6% of Costco's total, because shoppers dig the in-store "treasure hunt"  (come for the TP, leave with a foldable grill). Now, the Disneyland of bulk retail is increasingly [appealing](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-21/millennial-home-buyers-costco-is-calling-you?srnd=premium&sref=q3KSFp38) to Millennials — especially first-time home buyers:

- __2M+ Americans__ bought homes for the first time last year. *Nearly 40% of those were Millennials*, the most of any generation. 
- __Costco is catering__ to Millennial homebuyers with a fresh offering of "healthy" options to stock their starter houses. Think: almond flour and organic applesauce for Baby #1. 

__Signature rosé...__ for the Millennial mom. Costco has a secret weapon that other food retailers envy: Kirkland. The private-label offers everything from vodka, to eggs, batteries, and toilet paper. Most Kirkland products are made by third parties. Read: shoppers can sneakily get brand names at off-brand prices. Kirkland coffee = Starbucks, Kirkland diapers = Huggies, Kirkland cran juice = Ocean Spray. 

- __Bigger than Coke:__ Kirkland did $52B in sales last year — *nearly $20B more than Coca-Cola*, and double Kraft-Heinz's annual sales. 
- __Bigger than cable:__ Costco memberships now exceed cable TV subscriptions in the US. Kirkland is a key driver of that success.

_The home-lennials are coming [Klaus Tiedge/Corbis via GettyImages]_

Rosé

__Home-lennials could be Costco’s 10-year growth driver...__ Older Millennials are moving to the 'burbs. Read: first baby, first home, empty cupboards. Read again: prime targets for Costco memberships. More than [one-third](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/quicken-survey-shows-millennials-likely-to-flee-cities-over-the-next-year-301110777.html) of Millennials renting city apartments are considering moving away. The median age of a Costco shopper is 43. That's currently Gen X — but in a few years, it'll be Millennial. The suburban migration could have Millennials swapping Amazon carts for Costco ones. 

Costco has two secret weapons: Kirkland, and a growing number of "home-lennials"

🖥 China's crypto crackdown

__Jerome has spoken...__ and investors didn't clap. Last week, the Fed  indicated it expects to raise rates by the end of 2023, sooner than previously projected. The central bank has been pumping $$$ into the economy to keep rates low. Now, investors worry that could end sooner than expected. Higher interest rates can make bonds and savings accounts more attractive compared to riskier assets, like stocks. They also increase borrowing costs (think: credit card interest).

__Should be an Uber Limo...__ for the price of that Uber X. The Fed can raise interest rates to slow inflation. ICYMI: things have been pretty #flated recently. Consumer prices jumped 5% in May from last year, the fastest pace since 2008. Here's where you might be feeling the bump:

- __Gas:__ The pump anxiety is real. Gas prices are up a whopping __56%__ since last May.
-  __Cars:__ Consider the bus. Used car prices are up __30%__, and insurance is up 17%.
-  __Flights:__ Your Miami getaway ticket is looking like a roundtrip to Europe — __+24%__.
-  __Laundry:__ Grab the quarters. Washing machine and dryer prices =  __+26%__.
- __Ride-hail:__ When the Uber/Lyft surge pricing seems endless. Transportation services = __+11%__.  
- __Food & Bev:__ Restaurant food (+4%), alcohol (+1.6%), cereal and baked goods (0.6%). Peanut butter has been a victim of [price hikes](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/eto2AkKAyWnKqhapU8qK1/articles/62H1VZQ7fErOkYBzrT8WvO/), too. 

_Checking the inflation receipts like [Hirurg/E+ via GettyImages]_

Flated

__The US' recovery has global implications...__ That's because the US economy accounts for  nearly 25% of the world's economic output. America's booming recovery is [starting](https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos2) to drive up inflation around the globe. That's pushed some central banks in other countries to raise interest rates early — while many developing economies are still struggling as Covid surges. Looking ahead, continued inflation in the US could slow the global recovery. Investors hope it's just a one-time increase as the economy rebounds. But some worry inflation could last longer and weigh on markets. 

The US' booming recovery is fueling inflation: here's where you might be feeling it

__The e-menu stays...__ Last month, __[Yelp](https://robinhood.com/stocks/YELP)__ seated a record 4M diners in the US — up 48% from May 2019. Bookings [surged](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/54fsSmVD9q1yF2P4z5Qy9n/articles/6ADWcH5YdBqHwhNKPYeVWK/) past pre-pandemic levels in almost every US state, minus NY. It's not just a reopening thing: Yelp's data highlights the number of restaurants and diners *that shifted online during the pandemic*. This digital transformation bodes well for restaurant tech providers like Yelp, __OpenTable__, __[Square](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SQ)__, __Resy__, and __Toast__ — which is reportedly prepping to IPO.

__Not so SPAC-tacular...__ SPACs = public companies whose sole purpose is to buy *actual* companies to take them public. This year, the popular IPO alternatives have already raised more than they did in all of 2020. But while the broader market is up, the top 50 SPACs have fallen 19% since February. Last week, SPAC-quisitions __[Lordstown Motors](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RIDE)__ and __[DraftKings](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DKNG)__ plunged on not-so-flattering [allegations](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1QYl1TwLnXJZ5skLYT8Ds2/articles/7xmIZTOxsn5BlcxEsr60Xq/) from a short-selling firm. TBD if the SPAC-palooza will slow. FYI: SPAC investments involve [risk](https://cdn.robinhood.com/assets/robinhood/legal/Special-Purpose-Acquisition-Companies.pdf).

Zoom Out

Stories we're watching...

__Home, sweet KB Home...__ __[KB Home](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KBH)__ is the Chipotle of homebuilding — but instead of build-your-own-bowl, it's build-your-own-home. KB has thrived on the [Big Housing Boom](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3W8LX1jIAswA4HFNTbvVHO/articles/4Fw8bHVeO2Nn0unnSjroHO/), racking up a backlog of home orders on wild demand. Near-zero interest rates have made mortgages cheaper, while home sales and prices have soared. But interest rate fears and inflation (think: soaring lumber prices) could cool the homebuilding party. KB's earnings on Wednesday could provide a glimpse into future demand. 

__E-Jordans...__ __[Nike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKE)__ reports earnings on Thursday. The Swoosh loves to market [nostalgia](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6ZqOoifdPf952oFcedxEx1/articles/1OBFW9hjoVCTQ9aekyPjA8/) with AF1s and Jordans, but its superpower is digital. Online orders have been surging, heading toward half of total sales as Nike focuses on direct-to-consumer. With WFH sticking, Dri-FIT leggings could keep flying off digital shelves. But ongoing supply chain issues and competition from rival __[Lululemon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LULU)__ may hit Nike’s performance.


Events

Coming up this week...

- __[World](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1QYl1TwLnXJZ5skLYT8Ds2/articles/13z9ikwBYH8cc8GXwXrLda/):__ G7 countries want to fund global infrastructure to rival China's influence through an initiative called "Build Back Better World" (catchy).
- __[Autonomous](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5x9q6KbLrmzrqnVrUOqsEu/articles/4GqXfxwpLLMN0t1CLZGUpc/):__ Google's __Waymo__ self-drove its way to a $2.5B fundraise. Pro tip: you can now book its driverless robotaxis through Google Maps. 
-  __[Fashun](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/54fsSmVD9q1yF2P4z5Qy9n/articles/4KHWw1mVCDwnjX6SGQ1wKv/):__ Chinese shopping giant __Shein__ overtook __Amazon__ in the app store by going *ultra*-fast fashion. 

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

👛  How inflation is hitting your wallet

__No crying in the Clubhouse...__ Well, maybe a few tears. Yesterday, __[Spotify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__ [launched](https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/16/22535214/spotify-greenroom-locker-room-live-audio-app) its Clubhouse competitor "Greenroom." The social audio app is a Spotify-branded revamp of Locker Room, a sports-talk app that Spotify bought in March. Greenroom expands beyond Sunday football, to convos about music, culture, and Q&As with artists and podcasters. 

- __Testing, testing:__ Some features of Greenroom could be integrated into the actual Spotify app. For now, Spotify wants to see how (and if) people use it. 
- __Beyond Wrapped:__ Spotify loves designing cool stories for your Insta (your Top Song of 2020 is crucial info). But Greenroom is its first real stab at a social platform.  

__Two parties on the same night...__ Claaassic high-school conundrum. To lure people to yours, you might throw in Taco Bell and even a DJ. Spotify does things a little differently. In its quest to steal ears from __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__, Spotify has spent nearly [$1B](https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/21/did-spotify-waste-1-billion-on-podcasts/#:~:text=Overall%2C%20Spotify%20spent%20close%20to,is%20getting%20its%20money's%20worth.) on pod-related acquisitions — including The Ringer, Gimlet, and Parcast. Now it's beefing up the VIP list.

- __Alex Cooper will be there.__ Spotify just [snagged](https://variety.com/2021/digital/news/spotify-call-her-daddy-alex-cooper-exclusive-1234996840/) exclusive rights for top podcast "Call Her Daddy" (reportedly for $60M+). 
- __Joe Rogan's already sipping the green punch.__ Spotify brought "The Joe Rogan Experience" into its gated garden party (reportedly for $100M+). 
- __It's working:__ Spotify’s US podcast listenership is [expected](https://techcrunch.com/2021/03/02/spotify-podcast-listeners-to-top-apples-for-the-first-time-in-2021-forecast-claims/) to surpass Apple Podcasts for the first time this year.


_Spotify when the whole grade shows up [Flashpop/DigitalVision via GettyImages]_

Partay

__A great party requires great hosts...__ That's why "Greenroom" isn't really about guests — *it's about creators*. Right now, podcasters and musicians don't really care whether you listen on Spotify or Apple. Spotify is trying to lure creators by giving them a platform where they can connect with fans. Think: a host-led AMA session right after your favorite pod. By going social, Spotify can take its party to another level. We’ll see if Apple takes the hint. 

Spotify launches a Clubhouse rival on its quest to throw the coolest pod party 

__June 19, 1865…__ More than two years after the [Emancipation Proclamation](https://www.archives.gov/exhibits/featured-documents/emancipation-proclamation/transcript.html), federal troops marched into Texas to take control of the state and ensure all enslaved people were freed. Juneteenth commemorates the end of slavery in the US — and the US government just made it a federal holiday. Beyond this recognition, lawmakers have been discussing how to make amends. Amid a national reckoning over racial injustice, more attention is being paid to reparations. 

- __Reparations__ = The US government compensating descendants of Black American slaves for their labor, an idea that dates back to the Civil War.
- __$3B:__ The value [assigned](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/bigideas/why-we-need-reparations-for-black-americans/) to Black American slaves’ labor in 1860. Academics have struggled to agree on a total value for reparations, with estimates [ranging](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/15/us/slavery-reparations-explanation-trnd/index.html) from as low as $17B to as high as $97T. 

__150+ years later…__ The economic effects of slavery are still being felt. Even after Emancipation, Black Americans were denied land ownership, home loans, and capital, while segregation affected educational and job opportunities. That all led to the [racial wealth gap](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/bg6FaCgu8qc8z1Zllmofx/articles/3ZVsKmCRQNLUOSaAVHfNJi/): the typical white family has 8X the wealth of the typical Black family. 

__Reparations could take many forms…__ Including: individual payments, college tuition, student loan forgiveness, and housing grants. Since 2019, cities and states have been making moves toward their own reparations: 

- __In March, Evanston, IL__ became the first US city to offer reparations to Black residents. Each qualifying household would receive $25K for home repairs, down payments, and interest or late fees on city property. 
- __A handful of cities__, including Detroit, Providence, RI, and  Asheville, NC, have also either approved their own programs or are considering proposals. 


__Reparations could help close the racial wealth gap…__ which would improve racial equity, and support broader US economic growth. Pew predicts that the racial wealth gap will drain at least [$1T](https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/wharton-prof-discusses-economics-racism) out of the US economy annually over the next decade. In April, House lawmakers [voted](https://www.npr.org/2021/04/14/986853285/house-lawmakers-advance-historic-bill-to-form-reparations-commission) to advance a historic bill that would establish a committee to develop reparations proposals. That could help more cities and states take action. 

As the nation recognizes Juneteenth, we’re looking at the future of reparations 

🎈 Spotify's Clubhouse-style party

__Can't be a backseat driver...__ when there's no frontseat driver. __Waymo__ is the self-driving vehicle startup that was born out of __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__'s "moonshot factory." Google’s most successful moonshot is still a money-loser — but not when it comes to venture cash:

- __Waymo just raised a massive $2.5B__ to advance its self-driving tech. It [calls](https://waymo.com/waymo-driver/) its system "The World's Most Experienced Driver," which no other company can say (because Waymo trademarked the phrase).
- __Billions in the rearview:__ Explains the déjà vu. In March last year, Waymo [raised](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4AwsSxWJqQcb7mwqnA5uyv/articles/3vkok7loiBq6ya9zowTxlB/) $2.2B in its first external fundraise (read: not just Google $$$). 

__Waymo money...__ still problems. Waymo has driven millions of miles on public roads across the US. But Waymo and other self-driving companies have been criticized for moving slower than expected with commercialization. __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__'s Cruise, __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__, and even Apple are all working on fully self-driving vehicles — in 2019, Elon [said](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32159871/tesla-robo-taxis-still-coming-2020/) that self-driving robotaxis would be ready... last year. As of this month, Waymo has a big wheel up over the competition: 

-  __Waymo One:__ Waymo's *fully* driverless taxi service can now be [accessed](https://techcrunch.com/2021/06/03/waymos-driverless-taxi-service-can-now-be-accessed-on-google-maps/) through Google Maps, the same way you get routed to Uber’s app from Maps to book a ride. Think: distance, wait time, etc. 
- __Far from Uber status:__ The service is only available in Phoenix, where the bulk of Waymo’s 600 robotaxis are running. Good luck finding One. 


_Don't try to backseat drive on this one [Westend61 via GettyImages]_

Drive

__Niche products need mainstream roads...__ Waymo has something that its biggest competitor Cruise doesn’t: a maps app with [1B+](https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/21/google-maps-is-turning-its-over-a-billion-users-into-editors/) users. By integrating Waymo into Maps alongside providers like Uber, __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__, and __Lime__, Google can "mainstream-ify" robotaxis. It could compete on pricing with OG rides, and even integrate Waymo One directly into Maps to reduce friction (cue: potential antitrust issues). It could also weave Waymo into other parts of its biz — like: Google Pay and Google Home for seamless booking.


Google’s Waymo self-drives its way to a $2.5B fundraise — and it's putting itself on the Map

__An Apple a day...__ keeps the Apple doctor close. Since 2016, __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ has been secretly working on an ambitious healthcare project (code name: Casper). In 2019, CEO Tim Cook predicted that Apple’s greatest contribution to mankind “will be about health.” People were like: "????." Now it (kind of) makes sense. [According](https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-struggles-in-push-to-make-healthcare-greatest-legacy-11623832200?mod=rss_Technology) to the WSJ:

- __Apple__ has been trying to offer its own primary-care service with Apple-employed doctors at its own clinics. 
- __Imagine:__ Health data from your Apple Watch and iPhone being monitored by docs. Apple employees were the first to test the app, called HealthHabit. 

__Spoiler...__ It's not going great. Besides allowing you to track your steps, the Fruit's  health efforts have mostly flopped so far. It's not the only tech giant racing into the $4T healthcare industry — and others are facing hurdles, too: 

- __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ is dabbling in telehealth and even launched a pharmacy, but it’s effort to lower healthcare costs fell apart. 
- __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ has spun off its own biotechs like __Verily__, but its Google Health branch flopped and has been thwarted by privacy concerns.


__Apple wants to make the next big platform…__ *for our bodies*. But that could take a while. With iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks, Apple built an ecosystem for our minds (reality: endless TikTok scrolling). Watch is Apple’s big bet on an always-on platform for tracking your health. Getting the data is Step 1. If Apple can track it reliably and put it to good use, it could snag its next massive opportunity.

Apple faces roadblocks on its boldest (long-term) plan: platform-ifying healthcare

🤖 Waymo's self-driving billions

__Fewer scented candles...__ more candlelit dinners. Retail sales *fell* 1.3% last month, but it's not a bad sign for recovery. Spending is shifting from physical goods to "revenge experiences," as Americans swap TV menus for cocktail menus: 

- __Down:__ Spending on furniture, electronics, and appliances fell — because we've already spent enough on our biodomes. 
- __Up:__ Restaurant spending jumped 1.8%, and clothing sales jumped 3% (for all those date night fits). But restaurants are still [struggling](https://www.forbes.com/sites/aaroncolby/2021/06/14/labor-shortage-forcing-restaurants-to-get-creative-and-remain-complaint/?sh=6fba7edc2eb8) to fill job openings (#LaborShortage). 

__Hold my beer garden...__ __[Yelp](https://robinhood.com/stocks/YELP)__'s latest data blows those retail numbers out of the iced tap water. Last month, Yelp seated a record 3.7M diners in the US — up 48% from May 2019.  Yelp bookings surged past pre-pandemic levels in almost every US state, minus NY.  

- __In Texas and Florida,__ where Covid restrictions have been lifted longer, Yelp diners *more than doubled* last month compared to two years earlier.
- __In California,__ which lifted its mask mandate and restrictions yesterday, diners were already back to pre-Covid levels in May.  
- It *could* be that restaurants added more pandemic seating areas (hence: extra booking space). But we think something else is going on...


Dine

__Yelp’s data confirms the digital transformation...__ The 2019 numbers and the 2021 numbers are apples and digital oranges. What these comparisons really reflect: *the number of restaurants and diners that moved online*. During the pandemic, restaurant owners flocked to tech platforms to secure takeout orders, set up digital menus, and add contactless payments. And it appears they're staying digital. This shift bodes well for restaurant tech providers like Yelp, __OpenTable__, __Toast__, __Square__, and __Resy__. 


Yelp's new data tells us about the reopening — but it’s really a window into the digital economy

__50 new fits...__ for 50 new TikTok vids. Amazon's feeling more like MySpace right now. After 152 days as the #1 ecomm app in the US, the 'Zon has lost the top spot to __Shein__. The Chinese online apparel retailer is a Gen Z favorite, thanks to low prices and a *massive* offering of on-trend clothing. Shein adopted the fast-fashion model pioneered by Forever 21, H&M, and Zara — *then turbocharged it*:

- __Quick fits:__ Shein spots a halter top that's trending on social. Two weeks later, it’s on Shein's virtual shelves for $10 less than the original. Shein added 5.2K new items yesterday alone.
- __Quick hits:__ TikTok and Insta influencers are key to its marketing, along with virtual concerts from celebs like Katy Perry and Lil Nas X. 
- __Tight lips:__ Shein is still super secretive about its business, suppliers, factory conditions, and management.

__We do know one thing...__ Shein is raking in the big bucks. Sales [reportedly](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-14/online-fashion-giant-shein-emerged-from-china-thanks-to-donald-trump-s-trade-war?srnd=premium&sref=q3KSFp38) more than tripled to $10B last year — well above Zara's online sales. Shein's US success is partly thanks to a loophole: Trump's 2018 China tariffs only applied to packages over $800 (very rare for a Shein order). Then China effectively waived export taxes for D2C companies, adding more fuel to Shein's US growth.  


_More daily views than daily new Shein items [Nick David/Stone via GettyImages]_

__Welcome to "real-time fashion"...__ In the TikTok era, trends change so fast it's hard to keep up. Fast fashion retailers are struggling as Zillenials opt for second-hand Levi's over H&M florals. By sharing app search data with suppliers, Shein can react to new trends almost instantly. If peacock patterns are trending on Monday, Shein can tell Chinese factories to have peacock crops/shorts/earrings ready for shipping by next Wednesday — much faster than even fast fashion. One big downside: real-time fashion could result in even more waste and enviro-harm. 