__Déjà vu…__ As many countries look toward a post-Covid life, China’s experiencing a surge in cases. The spike’s triggered the harshest restrictions since the virus was first discovered in Wuhan nearly two and a half years ago. On Sunday, China quickly acted to curb its 1K+ new Covid cases (a fraction of US caseloads) by closing schools, suspending public transport, and halting non-essential biz in Shenzhen, aka “China’s Silicon Valley.” Now, its 17.5M residents are on a weeklong lockdown. 

- __Phone problems:__ __Foxconn__, which assembles most of the planet’s iPhones, has [paused](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-outbreak-shuts-down-some-china-factories-including-apple-supplier-11647246503?mod=business_lead_pos5) production at its two Shenzhen factories. __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ shares [fell](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL) nearly 3% yesterday. 
- __Car trouble:__ China also locked down all of Jilin province (population: 24M), home to auto plants operated by __[Volkswagen](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VWAGY)__ and __[Toyota](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TM)__.

__Check your pockets…__ You’re probably carrying a gadget made in Shenzhen. Thanks to its status as China’s first “special economic zone” (think: big tax breaks for foreign companies), Shenzhen grew from a [fishing](https://www.inc.com/will-yakowicz/shenzhen-city-of-electronics.html) village to a global tech powerhouse over the past four decades. It’s home to Chinese tech giants like __Huawei__ and __[Tencent](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TCEHY)__, and the world’s fourth-largest port, where China ships off 90% of its electronic exports.

A temporary isolation facility to house Covid-19 patients near a bridge linking Shenzhen and Hong Kong [Anthony Kwan/Getty Images]

Spike

__The world’s things are still largely Made in China…__ The US imported [$540B](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports/china) worth of goods from China last year. While many countries are trying to move on to an “endemic” phase of Covid, the world’s second-biggest economy has taken a zero-tolerance approach to any new infection spikes. That’s going to disrupt the global supply chain, already strained from pandemic shortages and, now, a war in Europe. US policymakers are trying to reduce China dependence: the House just passed a $52B bill to boost domestic chip manufacturing, which has been a priority for Biden’s admin.

China's “zero Covid” policy is put to the test as new lockdowns threaten to snarl the global supply chain — again

__Marky Mark’s back…__ with a back workout. __[F45 Training](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FXLV)__, a Mark Wahlberg-backed chain of __HIIT studios__, just flexed its first earnings as a public company. As you ditched at-home YouTube exercises, F45’s sales more than [tripled](https://ir.f45training.com/news/news-details/2022/F45-Reports-Record-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-Fiscal-2021-Results/default.aspx) to a quarterly record. It seems that people missed group sweat sessions:

- __Team training:__ F45 only offers group fitness classes and it’s known for its signature 45-minute high-intensity workouts. Think: __CrossFit__ meets __SoulCycle__. 
- __Big gaining:__ F45 opened 300 locations last year and expects to open 1K this year (#gainz). It’s reportedly the [fastest](https://www.entrepreneur.com/franchises/fastestgrowing)-growing fitness franchise in the world. 

__Franchises aren’t just for fast food…__ Part of the reason F45 is expanding faster than Wahlberg’s biceps: its franchise model. F45 doesn’t need tons of cash to open new locations, because it passes most costs to franchise owners. And those owners are lining up to open gyms: franchisees have already opened 1.7K F45 gyms and bought the rights to open another 1.6K.

- __More reps:__ Some of the biggest gym chains use franchise models: __[Planet Fitness](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PLNT)__ and __Anytime Fitness__ have well over 2K franchises each and charge less than $50 for monthly membership.
- __Heavier weight:__ Premium gyms like __Equinox__ own their eucalyptus-scented locations, which helps control branding but limits growth: Equinox has only 106 gyms but charges $170+/month.

Lift

__Survival of the fittest demands strength + flexibility…__ Nearly a third of US gyms went out of business during the pandemic. And while the US gym industry is recovering, it still hasn’t rebounded. That’s the opening for a biz like F45, which just had a record quarter combining two key strategies: franchising and premium-ifying. Its $150 monthly fee and high-end classes give it an Equinox-like appeal, while its franchise model gives it flexibility to grow without requiring much cash on hand.

Mark Wahlberg’s F45 gym franchise is booming thanks to its premium-meets-flexible strategy

China's zero-Covid policy could snarl supply chains further, as Shenzhen enters lockdown

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

Today is Equal Pay Day, the date that signifies how far into the year women have to work, on average, to be paid what men were paid the previous year

📱 China’s supply-chain shock

__WFH Fridays...__ a distant term from a distant time, when __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ wasn't a verb and doing spreadsheets in your bedsheets was *special*. Pre-pandemic, just [4%](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/business/remote-work-office-life.html) of employed Americans worked fully remote. By May 2020 it was nearly *half*. But as the number of Covid cases wanes across the US, employees are returning to fluorescent cubicles.

- __Conference-room donuts:__ Office occupancy reached a pandemic peak of 40% in December, then dipped on Omicron. Now it's rising again, hitting 38% this month.
- __Couch cupcakes:__ Last year [90%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/355907/remote-work-persisting-trending-permanent.aspx) of remote workers said they wanted to stay at least partly remote. And 75% said their employer would allow at least some remote work post-pandemic.
- __FYI:__ [50M](https://www.brookings.edu/research/to-protect-frontline-workers-during-and-after-covid-19-we-must-define-who-they-are/) Americans are frontline workers (think: nurses, grocery workers), most of whom couldn’t work from home.

__Reviving rush-hour podcasts…__ Employers aren’t taking a one-size-fits-all approach. On one end, companies like __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__, __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__, __[Citi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CITI)__, and __[Goldman](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GS)__ have set deadlines for full office returns (many this spring). Then there are hybrids [like](https://hubblehq.com/blog/famous-companies-workplace-strategies) __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__, __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS)__, and __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__, which are offering flexibility to retain talent. __[Google’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ [spending](https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-local-correspondents/googles-new-manhattan-groundscraper-bets-on-the-future-of-the-office) billions on new offices to lure hybrid-ers back to kombucha taps. Finally, there’s remote-first companies like __[Shopify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SHOP)__, __[Coinbase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COIN)__, and __Slack__. Some pros and cons:

- Banks, law firms, and others bullish on RTO must’ve decided that remote life dampens productivity — or invested too much in pricey leases.
- Others are happy to save on rent and catered meals, and like the option of dipping into a wider talent pool (aka: nationwide).

Commuters at New York’s Grand Central Terminal three years ago this week [Timothy A. Clary/Getty Images]

__We can return to office, but not to normal…__ The conclusion of this remote experiment: it worked out better than most could’ve imagined. Many say their productivity and overall happiness [improved](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/workers-better-off-were-two-125100870.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKKhN49omnqrMQkRDyE0epMF8KOuqug-_Q5su9-7Sc5lXlv2WLpTd8JIDknB0CiFMtuRW-AUDHtaDWGHsJOOhiVJ2JkLooK0TJD2QpvbsjfFyCslbPhtwgUIT4bBZv80Cp_tmg8usuroBglHO4e5VHE6-AL_fSg8YzrkUK_OjVdY). But reactions varied: Women and people of color are [more likely](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/business/remote-work-office-life.html) to view remote work positively than white males. And among those with children, women are [50%](https://www.adp.com/spark/articles/2021/09/the-hybrid-workplace-can-be-unfair-to-women-heres-how-you-can-help.aspx) more likely than men to prefer WFH. But they’re also less likely to get promoted while remote, which suggests IRL facetime can make a difference. That could become a point of tension in the new 9-to-5.

It’s “back-to-office March,” but the new 9-to-5 doesn’t affect all workers equally

__The human cost of war…__ Millions of Ukrainians are fleeing their country as death counts rise, and some are getting support from Western employers. In recent years, Ukraine has become a thriving tech hub: __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__, __[Cisco](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CSCO)__, and Google have teams there, as do an [estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/how-a-san-francisco-tech-ceo-is-supporting-his-250-plus-workers-in-ukraine.html) 20% of Fortune 500 companies. As the crisis has escalated, tech companies have tried to [help](https://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-one-tech-companys-attempt-to-evacuate-employees-from-ukraine-11646660626?mod=business_lead_pos5) their workers: __[Wix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WIX)__ chartered planes to evacuate the third of its workforce that’s in Ukraine. In a tragic case, a Silicon Valley tech worker, her children, and their friend [were killed](https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/Silicon-Valley-tech-worker-was-the-Ukrainian-mom-16990037.php) as they tried to flee the conflict.

__Going for (literal) gold…__ Gold prices [hit](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-surges-above-2-000-and-extends-rally-toward-18-month-high-palladium-rises-to-a-record-11646742589?siteid=YAHOOB) $2K/ounce last week, approaching 2020’s all-time high. As prices soar, investors are shifting $$ from riskier assets like stocks to “safe haven” assets like gold, bonds, and cash. That’s been bullish for the two largest gold miners, __[Barrick Gold](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOLD)__ and __[Newmont](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NEM)__: their shares are up around 30% this year while the market’s down 10%. Smaller __[Orla Mining’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ORLA)__ stock is up 21% this year.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching...

__Stimmy season’s officially over...__ The Fed is set to start raising interest rates this week — for the first time in three years. Typically, higher rates help curb sky-high inflation that drives up the cost of everything from groceries to gas. But Fed Chair Powell said the war in Ukraine could spook the US economy in unforeseen ways, partly why Goldman Sachs has cut its US growth forecast for the year. All the uncertainty is why Powell is signaling a quarter-point rate hike on Wednesday, instead of the half-point predicted just a month ago.

__It’s all in the delivery…__ There’s a race to deliver your latest __[Revolve](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RVLV)__ impulse buy. Despite labor and supply strains, sales boomed for __[FedEx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FDX)__ and __[UPS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UPS)__ last year as shoppers kept ordering online post-lockdown. UPS profits *tripled* last quarter thanks partly to its stable union workforce. Meanwhile, despite record holiday deliveries, FedEx’s profit fell as it [splurged](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/labor-shortage-ups-union-drivers-give-delivery-service-edge-over-fedex-fdx?sref=q3KSFp38) on hiring extra workers. Still, FedEx is buying $5B of its shares and underscored its “confidence” in its biz. We’ll see if it’s still optimistic when it reports Thursday.

Events

Coming up this week...

- __[Slice](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/PFFGKCT3sOunNoPNSZewb/articles/64ihwMyXAiLa7f4axGhOS1/):__ __[Amazon’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ splitting its shares 20 for 1, its first stock split in 20+ years. Thanks to fractional shares, splits are mostly for show now — but they’re also a sign the Zon thinks its $3K stock can keep rising.
- __[Canola](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5vfIOlOV4U5lL9HBIaeiOu/articles/xduVS4tKoldDPPu0KAPLB/):__ US Big Foodies like __[McDonald’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD)__ and __[Coke](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO)__ halted biz in Russia after peer pressure and __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__ #boycotts. The fast-food exodus is symbolic: McD’s was one of the first US chains to open in Russia post-Soviet Union.
- __[Gassy](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3G8DZH7eP3cykbzth81uso/articles/1hDlJUMUdFLZ8DTrJOp0fM/):__ Gas prices spiked even higher last week after the US banned Russian oil imports to punish Putin. Sanctions also sent grain and metal prices soaring, hurting __[Kellogg](https://robinhood.com/stocks/K)__, __[General Mills](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GIS)__, __[BMW](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BMWYY)__, and __[Boeing](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BA)__.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

Spiders use Earth’s electric field to fly, and have been observed as high as 2.5 miles in the air

💼 Commuting like it’s 2019

__Go ahead, have another slice…__ In fact have 19. This week __[Amazon’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ board [approved](https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-board-approves-20-for-1-stock-split-10-billion-share-repurchase-11646863156) a 20-for-1 stock split. It means an investor with one Amazon share today will get that split into 20 shares on June 3. The Zon’s first split in 23 years comes after its stock had fallen 26% from its November record. 

- __Smaller slices, same Zon:__ The split doesn’t directly affect Amazon’s fundamentals or market cap: it’s more slices, but the same amount of corporate pizza.
- __Shares still jumped__ more than 5% yesterday, for Amazon’s second-best day of the year (*that* does affect its market cap). It could be because Amazon also announced a $10B share buyback, its biggest ever.
- __Convenient timing:__ Congress just [accused](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/09/business/amazon-antitrust-investigation.html?searchResultPosition=1) Amazon of “lying” in an antitrust investigation, and the split could offer a welcome distraction.

__Why so split-y?…__ Companies with soaring stocks sometimes slice them into smaller pieces to make shares cheaper for retail investors to buy. Amazon’s $3K+ share price might seem too big for some investors to swallow. __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__, __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__, and __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ also [split](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6k1ba08JcBfFlUswPndvfC/) their stocks in the past two years, after huge pandemic gains. All four companies have cracked a $1T market cap, though Tesla has since fallen out of the four-comma club.

Smaller pieces, same pie [Andriy Onufriyenko/Getty Images]

Slice

__Stock splits are mostly cosmetic…__ but they do create buzz. Now that [fractional shares](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/4EFqqbIXVM4mHEXqqlQAJe/what-is-a-fractional-share/) are becoming widely available at brokerages, stock splits aren’t as big a deal anymore. Fractional shares take affordability much further than splits, since you can set your dollar amount. Still: splits suggest that a company is confident about its stock's growth.

Amazon’s first stock split since the ’90s provides a distraction — and a bump

__Lulu’d out from head to toe...__ After hooking you on your favorite lockdown leggings, __[Lululemon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LULU)__ is stepping into the shoe game. On Tuesday, the Canadian athleisure brand unveiled “Blissfeel,” a $150 women’s running shoe set to hit shelves this month. Back in 2019, Lulu execs said footwear [was](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/24/lululemon-is-going-to-start-making-shoes-rivaling-nike.html) a natural next step. And since then the brand has only grown stronger. Last fiscal year’s sales are [expected](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/business/lululemon-shoes.html) to come in at $6.3B, up from $4.4B in 2020.

- __Staying true to functional fashion:__ Lulu’s core brand. The stretchy-mesh sneaks will be available in 10 pastel colors. 
- __First steps:__ Lulu is rolling out three other shoe styles later this year, including post-workout slides and cross-training high-tops. (FYI: the men's collection won’t be ready until 2023.)

__Goodbye, kitten heels…__ Casual-shoe demand was supercharged during the pandemic as we ditched leather soles for Crocs and foam kicks. 

- __But the [$70B](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/sneakers-generated-70b-last-year-black-retailers-saw-little-rcna3546) sneaker industry has historically underserved women,__ often simply [resizing](https://www.wral.com/lululemon-jumps-into-the-footwear-business/20176976/?version=amp) men’s shoes and calling it a day. That’s an opportunity Lulu sees ripe for disruption.
- __Female-vantage:__ Online shoe reseller __[StockX](https://fashionunited.uk/news/fashion/stockx-reveals-that-women-s-sneakers-driving-growth/2021021153527)__ says women’s sneaker sales have more than doubled in the past six years, and the number of women’s sneaker listings has jumped 1,500%.

Sole

__Fashion is key to the sole…__ Lulu's breakthrough was making leggings cool enough to rock in the yoga studio *and* at happy hour. Now it's using that brand cachet to break into an industry long guarded by OGs like __[Nike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKE)__ and __[Adidas](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ADDYY)__. Though they still dominate, their market share has started to erode as upstarts like __[Allbirds](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BIRDS)__ and __[On](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ONON)__ gain traction.

Lululemon challenges Nike by trying footwear on for size — to help keep pandemic-era growth alive

Amazon shares jump after it approves a stock split to give shareholders smaller slices

When McDonald’s first opened in Russia in 1990, a Big Mac cost 2 rubles ($3.40) — or 1% of the average monthly Soviet wage

🍕 Amazon slices the pie

__From crude oil to canola oil...__ A day after the US banned Russian oil imports, __[McDonald's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD)__ banned its oily food from the country. The Golden Arches is temporarily [shutting](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/business/mcdonalds-pepsi-coke-russia/index.html) its nearly 850 locations in Russia, which makes up a tenth of its sales (not nothing). Other Big Foodies followed: __[Starbucks](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SBUX)__ is shuttering its Russian coffee shops, __[Coke](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO)__ is suspending its Russia biz, and __[PepsiCo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP)__ is pulling some sodas out of the country (but will continue selling essentials like baby formula and milk).

- __Why they're pulling a Mosc-out:__ More than [300 companies](https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-300-companies-have-withdrawn-russia-some-remain) have withdrawn from Russia to condemn the invasion of Ukraine. McD’s and other giants that hadn’t exited were facing pressure and criticism (think: __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__ #boycotts). 
- __Why it took so long:__ Fast-food operations are complex and provide livelihoods for thousands. McD’s will continue paying full salaries for its 62K Russian workers. Ditto Starbs. 
- __Another reason:__ Fast-food chains generally don’t own most of their locations — they sell the rights to franchisees. That’s why __[Yum Brands](https://robinhood.com/stocks/YUM)__ is closing only *company-owned* KFCs, and still hasn’t reached an agreement with franchisees to shut Pizza Huts. But while most global McD’s are franchised, 84% of its Russia locations are company-owned. 

__The Silicon Curtain...__ Big Tech companies were some of the first to exit Russia, partly because it’s easier to shut down servers than restaurants. A few examples: __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__, __TikTok__, and __[PayPal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PYPL)__ have suspended their services, and __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ and __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ halted sales.

Crowds line up for the opening of Russia’s first McDonald’s in 1990 [Peter Turnley/Getty Images]

Canola

__The Calorie Curtain is symbolic…__ of the West-East decoupling. McDonald’s was one of the first American corporations to open its doors in Russia during the fall of the Soviet Union. Nearly [40K](https://www.voanews.com/a/europe_mcdonalds-marks-30-years-russia/6183551.html) people lined up at McDonald’s in Moscow’s Pushkin Square on opening day, a symbol of capitalism’s triumph over communism. Thomas Friedman famously [said:](https://www.nytimes.com/1996/12/08/opinion/foreign-affairs-big-mac-i.html) No two countries that both have McDonald's have ever waged war against each other. Economic ties and trade relations can foster peace, but the era of “[food diplomacy](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/business/mcdonalds-russia-starbucks-pepsi-coca-cola.html)” is over.

McDonald’s and Coke pull out of Russia, as the “Calorie Curtain” falls on an already isolated country

__Uncle Sam is crypto-curious...__ and crypto CEOs are eager to answer his questions. Yesterday President Biden issued an [executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/09/fact-sheet-president-biden-to-sign-executive-order-on-ensuring-responsible-innovation-in-digital-assets/) calling for crypto regulation, signaling the federal government plans to take a more active role in regulating digital assets. Crypto-preneurs [applauded](https://twitter.com/cameron/status/1501395269648146432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1501395269648146432%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2022%2F03%2F09%2Fbitcoin-btc-jumps-after-treasury-statement-on-crypto-executive-order.html) the news, and __[Bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC)__ prices jumped more than 8%. The order, unpacked:

- __Biden laid out six crypto goals:__ 1. protect investors; 2. keep markets stable; 3. curb crime; 4. stay globally competitive; 5. boost inclusion; and 6. innovate responsibly. 
- __The #DigitalDollar isn’t dead:__ Biden also pushed regulators to explore a central bank digital currency. The Fed had already [outlined](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/money-and-payments-20220120.pdf) pros and cons of a digital dollar earlier this year. 
- __Next up…__ homework. Biden asked the Fed, Treasury Department, and other agencies to study and report on their crypto plans by year’s end.

__The [ethereum](https://robinhood.com/crypto/ETH) in the room…__ Crypto has gotten too big to ignore. 40M Americans — about 12% of the population — have invested in crypto, the White House says (more than half of Americans are invested in stocks). Russia’s war on Ukraine has also raised concerns that Russia could use crypto to avoid sanctions, highlighting crypto’s growing geopolitical importance. Russia and China are among the 100+ countries developing their own digital currencies. 

Curious

__Crypto has a “patchwork problem”...__ and federal oversight could solve it. It’s easier to have set rules coming from one direction than contradictory rules coming from 50 directions. Just ask the cannabis industry: a lack of federal regulation has prevented regional weed businesses from blooming into national brands. Specific crypto rules may not come into focus for months, but crypto companies are still stoked about Biden’s order because full federal regulation could eventually provide a clearer picture for how to do business.

Biden takes the first real step toward crypto regulation — and it’s boosting Bitcoin

McDonald's, Coke, and Starbucks pull out of Russia, dropping a symbolic "Calorie Curtain"

Because of spiking metal prices, the value of the nickel in a US nickel is now worth more than a dime (#coinception)

🍟 McDonald’s “Calorie Curtain”

__Sanctioning where it hurts…__ in the barrel. President Biden [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/us-expected-to-announce-ban-on-russian-oil-as-soon-as-today-nbc-news-reports.html) a halt on Russian oil imports in response to Putin’s escalation in Ukraine. FYI: oil makes up a third of Russia’s economy. Even worse for Putin: the EU said it would [cut](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/eu-pledges-to-cut-russian-gas-imports-by-two-thirds-before-next-winter.html) Russian gas imports by two-thirds by the end of this year, even though it’s much more reliant on Russian energy than the US. Europe depends on Russia for [nearly half](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/why-europe-depends-on-russia-for-natural-gas.html) of its gas supply and a quarter of its oil. The US gets only [7%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php) of its oil from Russia. 

__Pump anxiety…__ Reduced supply from Russia is causing gas prices to spike even higher. The average price of a gallon in the US hit a high of $4.10 yesterday, topping $7 in some places. And it’s not just crude that’s gone haywire. Russia and Ukraine are big exporters of other key commodities, which are also surging on fears of reduced supply: 

- __Costly Corn Flakes…__ Wheat and corn prices have [spiked](https://www.axios.com/wheat-prices-surge-russia-ukraine-middle-east-80b49d7d-9227-4786-946d-5012b8d8f373.html) as the war strains supplies of global grains: cereal giants __[Kellogg](https://robinhood.com/stocks/K)__ and __[General Mills](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GIS)__ were already hiking prices before the war.
- __Expensive-er EVs…__ The prices of precious metals like titanium, palladium, and nickel — critical for everything from EV batteries to airplane bodies — have [soared](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/carmakers-face-soaring-metal-costs-with-russian-supplies-risk-2022-03-08/), hurting companies from __[BMW](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BMWYY)__ to __[Boeing](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BA)__. 

The ban on Russian oil means even higher prices at the pump [Will Lester/MediaNews Group/Inland Valley Daily Bulletin/Getty Images]

Embargo

__Replacing Russian oil is the easy part…__ at least for the US (aka: the world’s #1 oil producer). Oil giants could drill more domestically, and Biden could boost imports from allies like Canada and Mexico. But taming global commodity prices is a different ballgame. Supplies of gas, grains, and metals are subject to geopolitical changes beyond any one country’s control — and that affects prices for everyone.

The US bans Russian oil imports in one of the harshest punishments for Putin yet

__Touch ID is back…__ just as the masks come off. __[Apple’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ first product event of the year didn’t have as many jaw-dropping debuts as its typical fall bonanza, but there were some goodies: 

- __Entry level:__ Apple’s new iPhone SE is a throwback to the OG iPhone (think: one camera, fits in one palm) but with high-speed 5G. Price tag: $430, or $30 more than the previous SE model. 
- __Expert level:__ The new Mac Studio is a two-piece desktop aimed at high-tech creators (think: sound engineers, app developers). It’s also equipped with Apple's new M1 Ultra chip making it 3X faster than its next-best computer. Fully specced-out price tag: [$8,000](https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/8/22967608/mac-studio-top-specs-price-cpu-gpu-m1-ultra-expensive).
- __Pro level:__ Apple TV+ will stream two MLB games on Friday nights (assuming there’s a season to watch).

__Welcome to Club Apple…__ It might be hard to get in, but it’s even harder to leave. Apple is trying to be like a social club with different levels of membership. It’s positioning the iPhone SE line for junior members: it has a low price point and limited features but still comes with the Club Apple bragging rights. Meanwhile, VIP members are blinged out with the iPhone 13 and Mac Pros — and going on their third pair of AirPods.

Retro

__It’s all about the ecosystem…__ To maintain its premium reputation, Apple used to avoid making cheaper iPhones. Now analysts say the budget iPhone SE could make up one-tenth of Apple’s [sales](https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-expected-launch-new-low-cost-5g-iphone-2022-03-07/) after it hits stores next week. By offering more affordable iPhones, Apple can court the 80% of the world’s smartphone users who don’t have one. Apple is hoping that its cheaper phones will be the junior membership card that hooks you into Club Apple’s ecosystem.

Apple’s newest budget iPhone brings back old-school design to capture thriftier customers 

The US bans Russian oil imports in a blow to Putin, as commodity prices soar

Nearly half of Americans lost between $500 and $1.5K last year because of canceled trips

⛽ Commodities gone crazy

__A plush bed for Poochie...__ Shares of __[Bed Bath & Beyond](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BBBY)__ soared as much as 86% yesterday after __[Chewy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CHWY)__ founder Ryan Cohen [disclosed](https://www.wsj.com/articles/bed-bath-beyond-goes-to-the-moon-11646670877) a nearly 10% stake in the battered housewares chain. Cohen’s an activist investor who made his first fortune selling his pet-food biz Chewy to __PetSmart__ for a reported $3.4B. He later became chair of __[GameStop’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GME)__ board, promising an ecommerce turnaround. Now he’s eying BB&B:

- __Just don’t touch the coupons:__ In a [letter](https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/bbbletter030622.pdf), Cohen told BB&B’s board to hone its focus, pay execs in stock to spur growth, think about spinning off its fast-growing Buy Buy Baby biz, and consider selling to a private-equity buyer.
- __Hanging on by a Wamsutta thread:__ Despite a pandemic bump, BB&B’s stock is down 70% over the past decade as it’s faced steep competition from __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__, __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__, and __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__ (while the average US stock has more than doubled).

__If this all sounds familiar…__ Cohen sent GameStop’s board a similar letter in November 2020, prompting its stock to skyrocket 27X in a __Reddit__-powered investment blitz two months later. When Cohen grabbed the reins shortly after, he promised to quickly expand into ecommerce. But that hasn’t happened.

 [Noam Galai/Getty Images]

Towels

__It’s a big test for the meme-funding model…__ By pressuring BB&B to reorganize, Cohen’s jumped into a second turnaround project before completing his first: GameStop’s revenue and profit have remained nearly flat under his command. But since GS shares are still up 8X since Cohen’s original letter, the company’s raised $1.6B by selling new shares to pay off all its debts. And if Cohen succeeds in revamping GameStop’s sales, duvet covers could be next.

Bed Bath & Beyond shares soar on word that GameStop’s Ryan Cohen has a big stake — and bigger demands

__Waiting 10 seconds to skip…__ as your kid rewatches “Encanto” for the third time. __[Disney’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS)__ aiming for a cheaper subscription plan for its Disney+ streaming service (to debut later this year). The pricing is TBD, but it’ll be less than its standard $8/[month](https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/disney-plus-price) (or $80 a year) option. There’s just one catch: commercials. Disney already has ad-supported versions for its Hulu and ESPN+ plans, but hasn’t added commercials to its namesake streamer. Here’s why it’s doing it now:

- __Growth:__ Disney execs hope that a cheaper streaming option will help it reach 230M D+ [subscribers](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/09/disney-dis-fiscal-q1-2022-earnings.html) by 2024. Since its launch, in 2019, Disney+ has added 130M subscribers (FYI: __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__ has 220M). 
- __Profits:__ Disney+ still isn’t profitable as a stand-alone segment, probably because it’s splurging so much on original content and keeping prices low to drive subs. The Mouse House is boosting [spending](https://variety.com/2022/biz/news/disney-plus-subscribers-2021-earnings-1235175715/) by up to $1B on new programming *this quarter* alone.

__If you can stream it, you can do it…__ Ad-supported services use a model that's helped make the TV biz profitable since forever. That’s why streaming rivals like __[Comcast’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CMCSA)__ Peacock and __WarnerMedia’s__ HBO Max also offer cheaper commercials-based plans. Unlike streaming pure play Netflix, OG media conglomerates have to justify spending extra $$ on streaming costs as they balance more profitable parts of their biz (think: amusement parks and internet service).

Skip

__Streaming is starting to look a lot like cable…__ bundles, ads, and all. The streaming market is saturated, and it’s a fight for every new sub. (Last year, the average number of subs per user fell for the first time.) Streamers are trying to sweeten their value props by offering cheaper ad-filled tiers and bundles (think: Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+) but risk resurrecting a long-hated biz model along the way.

Disney+ is rolling out an ad-supported tier as streamers start adopting cable-y habits

Chewy founder Ryan Cohen sets his sights on Bed Bath & Beyond, but isn’t done with GameStop

Closing the gender gap for investments in women-led businesses could boost global GDP by $2T

🛁 Bed Bath & waaaay Beyond

__Low energy, high stakes...__ Western countries have [piled on](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5Nw8NTMF1A8EDOwQ12Yygy/articles/4CkWRZ80CoBHeTuvsDWgxr/) financial sanctions to punish Russia. One thing they haven’t touched: *energy exports*. Oil makes up a third of Russia’s economy, and the West is still buying its oil and gas. Here’s why:

- __Europe__ depends on Russia for [41%](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/why-europe-depends-on-russia-for-natural-gas.html) of its gas supply. The EU has focused on transitioning to renewables like hydro, wind, and solar — but those cover less than a fifth of its energy needs.
- __The US__ is the world's top oil producer ([one-fifth](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6) of global supply), and [doesn't](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php) get much from Russia. But it’s also the [largest](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6) *oil consumer*, using up even more than it produces (think: long drives, big trucks, blasting A/C).

__Declaration of (energy) independence...__ So far, sanctions haven't slowed Russia's attack. But if the West stopped buying Russian fuel, it could crush Russia’s economy. The problem: the West can't sanction Russian energy without *also* crushing Europe’s supply. Germany, which is most dependent on Russia, [said](https://capx.co/how-the-battle-for-energy-independence-was-lost/) its lights “will go out.” In the US, gas prices could soar even higher. Cue:

- __The West’s focus is shifting to energy independence__ — when a country produces enough fuel to meet its own needs and eliminates foreign reliance. 
- __The EU__ is [set to unveil](https://www.economist.com/business/2022/03/05/europe-reconsiders-its-energy-future) a proposal to become energy independent (read: no Putin necessary). Long term, it could mean dramatically expanding renewables and zero-emission sources like nuclear and hydrogen. 
- __The US__ can produce more, but President Biden’s climate policies and oil giants’ [reluctance](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/02/energy/us-oil-production/index.html) to boost supply have pushed oil production [below](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/02/energy/us-oil-production/index.html) 2019 levels. GOP leaders are [urging](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/gop-end-russian-oil-imports-us-boost-production-83207789) Biden to drill, but nuclear and renewables are more sustainable.

The Three Mile Island nuclear plant, which closed in 2019 (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)

Fuel

__Crisis moments accelerate change…__ as we saw during the pandemic. We’re still in the thick of this crisis, but one thing’s becoming clear: it could speed an energy revolution. Russia’s aggression is turning energy independence into a national-security imperative. Boosting renewable and nuclear energy can help get us there, but will take years of investment: fossil fuels still power [60%](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3) of the US’s electricity.

Western leaders underscore the urgency of energy independence as Russia’s war escalates

__Grounded...__ The West is squeezing Russia's [$19B](https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/russian-federation--value-of-aviation/) airline industry as sanctions jolt the economy. Last week, European __[Airbus](https://robinhood.com/stocks/EADSY)__ and American __[Boeing](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BA)__ [stopped](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/02/airbus-and-boeing-to-halt-supply-of-aircraft-parts-to-russian-airlines) supplying parts to Russian planes. Meanwhile, global ticket-booking firm __Sabre__ [cut off](https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/russian-airline-aeroflot-sabre-reservations/index.html) __Aeroflot__ — Russia's national airline — crippling its ability to sell seats. Biden has [banned](https://www.axios.com/russian-flights-ban-us-airspace-86138fcb-c658-4e13-af12-2facbfe6adb3.html) Russian flights from entering US airspace, and US airlines are rerouting around Russia’s massive airspace. But travelers could pay the price: dodging Russia on long-haul flights (think: NYC to Seoul) eats up more jet fuel and could [hike](https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2022/03/01/how-russia-ukraine-conflict-impacts-air-travel/6978208001/) ticket prices.

__The Great Wait is over…__ and your boss wants you to try the new office snacks. __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__, __[Wells Fargo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WFC)__, and __[Cisco](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CSCO)__ are [reopening](https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-see-an-opening-for-office-reopening-11646130602) offices this month after Delta and Omicron delays. Service workers never got the WFH experience, but most white-collar workers who did have [little](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/16/success/pew-survey-covid-affect-on-work-from-home/index.html) desire to go back to IRL offices: so companies are dangling revamped spaces to lure them. __[Dropbox](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DBX)__ ditched “offices” for open-concept “[studios](https://www.wsj.com/articles/tech-companies-reopen-their-offices-facebook-google-11646365155).” Another tactic: __[Google’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ asking staff to come in three days a week, after giving everyone a $1.6K bonus. Companies [expect](https://www.wsj.com/articles/boss-get-remote-workers-back-office-11635531138) most of their employees to be (partly) in offices by summer. 

Stories we’re watching

__March Madness gets influencer-ized…__ Competition on the b-ball court is dribbling into competition in your Insta feed. Thanks to last year’s Supreme Court [ruling](https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/06/29/business-of-football-supreme-court-unanimous-ruling), players can now earn $$ from sponsored posts during this month’s NCAA tourney. Some have already scored $2M sponsor deals. By “Selection Sunday,” you’ll see hundreds of college-hoop stars doing #sponcon for brands like __Dunkin__ and __Gatorade__. It’s a slam dunk for female players, who typically have larger social followings: female NCAA players have raked in more sponsor [cash](https://opendorse.com/nil-insights/?mc_cid=14396ad8fa&mc_eid=4bf9b1df67) than men.

__Short circuit...__ Investors are looking for the next EV maker to take on __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__, but production snafus and chip shortages are making it tough. China's EV leader, __[Nio](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NIO)__, shipped 6K of its sleek Tron-esque cars last month, up [10%](https://ir.nio.com/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/nio-inc-provides-february-2022-delivery-update) from a year ago, but behind its January deliveries. US-based __[Rivian](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RIVN)__, which went public in November, blamed #flation for jacking up the price of its preordered e-pickups by $20K ([update](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/rivian-rolls-back-big-price-increases-on-pre-orders-after-customer-backlash.html): the company reversed it). We’ll see how the customer backlash and supply-chain snarls could hit the Tesla rivals when they report this week.

Coming up this week

- __[Coin-flict](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5Vn4JIrzX3BghXzZtuksAR/articles/3BQ4iVOWQlAmZ3YWvjH8AB/):__ The war in Ukraine has boosted crypto demand across the board, causing [bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC) price swings and renewing calls for more crypto rules. Ukraine has raised over $35M in crypto aid from a wide array of donors.
- __[Yacht-](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1vyj6JcFa6X4qlpX8UnGzW/articles/7pSylIPgsKJnndV6dB1bNt/)onomics:__ To crank up pressure on Putin, the US and allies are targeting Russian oligarchs by going after their superyachts. So far, the politically connected oligarchs have lost at least $83B because of sanctions.
- __[She-cession](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1vyj6JcFa6X4qlpX8UnGzW/articles/YxobtPSBOs1XAr71CEDda/):__ More women stopped working during Covid than men, even though recessions usually hit men harder. Unemployment has fallen below 4%, from a 15% peak in 2020, but women’s jobs are recovering more slowly.

Last week's highlights

The last day that all of us were on Earth together was October 31, 2000. At least one person has been aboard the International Space Station ever since 

⚡What Russian oil means for energy independence

__Rough seas for Putin’s pals…__ First, Western governments went after Russia’s banks — now they’re [targeting](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/us/politics/russian-oligarchs-justice-department.html) its oligarchs. Refresher: oligarchs are wealthy individuals with outsized influence over government. Post-Soviet oligarchs have amassed staggering fortunes during the privatization of Russia’s economy by doing favors for politicians like President Putin. By going after oligarchs, Western countries hope to pressure Putin to end the war in Ukraine:

- __Seize and freeze:__ President Biden [launched](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/us/politics/russian-oligarchs-justice-department.html) “Task Force KleptoCapture” (real name) to confiscate Russian oligarchs’ yachts, jets, and pricey pads. European authorities have already seized some big boats, like the 280-foot Amore Vero owned by a Putin confidant.
- __Cut and run:__ Some oligarchs are [sailing](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/02/business/russian-oligarchs-sanctions-assets/index.html) for safer harbors, but even formerly friendly destinations like Monaco have adopted sanctions. Others are trying to sell: Roman Abramovich put Chelsea FC up for [sale](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/sports/soccer/chelsea-roman-abramovich.html). FYI: He’s one of a handful of oligarchs who’ve broken rank by publicly [criticizing](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/business/oligarchs-russia-ukraine-fridman-deripaska/index.html) the war.

__Yacht-onomics…__ Putin has spent years sanction-proofing Russia for this day. Moscow stockpiled currency, bought Chinese bonds, and ditched Western trade partners to [fortify](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/world/europe/putin-sanctions-proofing.html) Russia’s economy. Oligarchs did their part: experts say Putin and his cronies have personally [stashed](https://qz.com/2136067/where-are-russias-oligarchs-hiding-their-wealth/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=daily-brief&utm_content=ade3ed45-9ade-11ec-a5d2-be11b8650b3a) at least $250B of dark money outside Russia. But their laundered loot is hidden in plain sight: $1B+ yachts and Manhattan penthouses aren’t exactly subtle.

Roman Abramovich's superyacht, Solaris, in Barcelona on Tuesday (David Ramos/Getty Images)

Klepto

__Keep your enemies' friends close…__ So far, government sanctions and international shaming haven’t stopped Putin from escalating his aggression against Ukrainians. Western leaders hope that going after his influential friends could help turn the screws. Russian oligarchs have already [lost](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/russian-billionaires-count-cost-of-83-billion-wealth-wipeout?sref=q3KSFp38) $83B because of sanctions — and that’s not counting the yachts. And it’s just beginning: the US is [said to be](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-preparing-expanded-sanctions-against-russian-elite-families-wapost-2022-03-02/) expanding sanctions against oligarchs and the businesses that made them rich.

To crank up pressure on Putin, Western powers target Russian oligarchs — and their superyachts

__Let this sink in…__ After two years of a pandemic, women have still not fully recovered from the labor market pain of 2020. While the US added a record [6.4M](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/01/08/2021-shattered-records-but/) jobs last year, and the overall unemployment rate is down to [4%](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm), men have dominated new hirings. Of the jobs gained [in January](https://www.phillyvoice.com/women-jobs-recovery-covid-19-pandemic-us-labor-department-report/#:~:text=Of%20the%20jobs%20gained%20in,had%20been%20held%20by%20women.), women filled 40%. This morning’s jobs report will offer fresh insight into how women are rebounding from the [she-cession](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4FiPxYkU4FGEKs36P1LNJJ/articles/4kp1BqJkQIJqk2dJ3iMTuU/).

- __In the US: 2.5M+__ women dropped out of the labor force between February 2020 and January 2021, versus [1.8M](https://nwlc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/December-Jobs-Day.pdf) men. That’s unusual, because men typically fare worse during recessions.
- __Globally: 64M+__ women lost their jobs in 2020, which resulted in $800B in lost income.

__Why women left…__ Women bore the brunt of childcare when schools closed, [which hurt](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/23780231211038783) their careers, relationships, and well-being. Women are also [overrepresented](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R46632.pdf) in jobs with some of the highest [burnout rates](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/black-women-were-hit-especially-hard-by-pandemic-job-losses-and-recovery-is-lagging.html), including high-contact industries like healthcare, education, and retail. Ultimately, many mothers were forced to decide between being primary caregivers or full-time employees. And while schools have reopened, there’s still a [childcare crisis](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/help-wanted-americas-childcare-crisis-fueled-by-worker-shortages-in-daycare-centers.html) keeping women out of the resurgent labor market:

- 16K licensed childcare facilities [permanently](https://www.childcareaware.org/demanding-change-repairing-our-child-care-system/) closed between December 2019 and March 2021, while childcare costs have increased by [41%](https://fortune.com/2022/01/28/the-cost-of-child-care-in-the-us-is-rising/) since the pandemic began.
- American childcare workers — [95%](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/08/19/903913689/1-in-5-child-care-jobs-were-lost-since-pandemic-started-women-are-affected-most) of whom are women — earn just [$12/hr](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/personal-care-and-service/childcare-workers.htm) on average, which makes recruitment and retention challenging. 

__The labor market is still healing…__ especially for women. Biden’s [$1.2T](https://time.com/6089649/infrastructure-bill-industries-benefit/) infrastructure bill aims to pump money into industries like construction and transportation, but those sectors have traditionally employed few women. [Some say](https://fortune.com/2021/02/18/returnships-women-unemployment-back-to-work/) minimizing bias against workers who take career breaks for childcare could help women return to the labor pool.

The labor market is resurging — but millions of women are still recovering from the “she-cession”

To pressure Putin, Western powers target Russian oligarchs and their yachts

People who are “tetrachromatic” can see 100X as many colors as the average person

🛥️ Oligarchs and yacht-onomics

__The first big crypto conflict…__ The war in Ukraine has [boosted](https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-demand-booms-in-ukraine-and-russia-11646165756) demand for crypto on both sides of the fight, helping to lift the price of __[Bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC)__ nearly 25% since the start of Russia’s invasion — and thrusting decentralized finance (DeFi) into a major military conflict. How crypto is impacting the war so far:

- __Crowdfunded resistance:__ Ukraine has [raised](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/ukraine-dogecoin-other-cryptocurrencies-accepted-for-donations.html) over $35M in crypto to finance its ops. After Ukraine’s deputy PM [tweeted](https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1497549813205848068) a link to a digital wallet, donations poured in from around the world. Still, Ukraine’s crypto war chest is tiny compared to the $270M it’s raised from war bonds.
- __Sanction resistance:__ Russia can also use crypto to blunt the damage of sanctions, since crypto transactions are harder to block. Russia’s access to global banking is mostly frozen and its currency is nearly worthless — but it can still spend bitcoin.
- __Exchange resistance:__ Ukraine officials asked crypto exchanges to bar all Russian users from their platforms, but __[Coinbase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COIN)__, __Kraken__, and __Binance__ refused to pull the plug. Kraken’s CEO [said](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60576373) a ban would contradict bitcoin’s “libertarian values.”

__A geopolitical X factor…__ Russia wouldn’t be the first country to use crypto to get around sanctions: __Iran__ and __North Korea__ have reportedly [deployed](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/business/russia-sanctions-cryptocurrency.html?partner=slack&smid=sl-share) crypto after being frozen out of global markets. Analysts are concerned Russia and China could do the same, and both countries are also rolling out state-sponsored digital currencies.

ATMs for bitcoin and banks in Istanbul [Chris McGrath/Getty Images]

DeFi

__Crypto could reshape war…__ and war could reshape crypto. Digital currencies may change how wars are fought and financed by providing a new way to move money quickly and securely. But by the same (decentralized) token, crypto’s influence in Russia’s war on Ukraine could push lawmakers to accelerate plans to crack down. US regulators plan to clarify their crypto rules sometime this year.

Crypto becomes a new tool in war as Ukraine and Russia leverage digital currencies

__Break out the Batmobile…__ If you want to catch Robert Pattinson in tights on opening night, it could cost extra. __[AMC's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMC)__ testing a new pricing strategy by raising the cost of tickets for popular movies, like __Warner's__ "The Batman'' (hits theaters Friday). In LA and NYC, ticket prices are running about a buck more, but that hasn’t dampened demand:

- __*Batty* expectations:__ “The Batman” could be the first blockbuster of the year: it’s tracking for a $245M+ worldwide open, and not a moment too soon for chains like AMC.

__Strategy shift...__ During the pandemic, some studios have embraced a new way to reach viewers at home (think: same-day streaming releases). That’s had mixed results: Warner's "Dune" pulled in $400M at the global box office. But the studio’s other day-and-date releases, like “[In the Heights](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/newsletter/2021-06-15/in-the-heights-box-office-the-wide-shot)” and “[Matrix 4,](https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2021/12/28/why-the-matrix-resurrections-was-a-box-office-disappointment/?sh=5fcfa7ea2562)” bombed on the big screen. With North American ticket sales still down 60% from pre-Covid levels, theater chains are getting creative:

- __Lux-ification:__ reclining seats, contactless concessions, and 4D experiences are some ways theaters are enticing people back. Pricier seats for popular showings of studio tentpoles could add to the premium feel.

- __BTW:__ AMC is already charging European theatergoers extra for [prime](https://nypost.com/2022/03/02/why-amc-is-charging-higher-prices-for-the-batman-tickets/) theater seats (think: middle, not too close).

__Movie tix are getting “premium-ized”...__ Movie tickets are famously uniform: you’ll pay the same to see a $200M Marvel blockbuster as a $2M indie flick. And dynamic pricing has long been a popular model in other industries, from flights to hotels to concerts. Whether you’re booking a last-minute red-eye or front-row seats to a J. Biebs show, high demand = higher cost. But hiking prices could jeopardize attendance — at a time when theaters are struggling to fill seats.

AMC will charge more for blockbusters as the struggling movie chain entertains “variable pricing”

Crypto becomes a new tool in war as both sides leverage digital currencies

Reported Covid cases in the US have fallen by 96% from their peak in mid-January. Globally, reported cases have dropped by 16% in the past week

🔑 The first crypto conflict

__Corporate exodus…__ A growing list of Western companies are responding to the war in Ukraine, from offering gestures of goodwill to cutting business ties with Russia. Yesterday, __[Visa](https://robinhood.com/stocks/V)__ and __[MasterCard](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MA)__ blocked Russian banks from using their payment systems, to comply with US sanctions that restrict domestic companies from doing biz with certain Russian firms. But not every retaliatory move has been about sanctions:

- __Giving shelter:__ __[Airbnb](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ABNB)__ is offering free housing for up to 100K Ukrainian refugees with the help of volunteer hosts in neighboring countries. Meanwhile, Elon Musk shipped __SpaceX__ Starlink satellites to help keep Ukraine's internet online.
- __Sending a message:__ __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS)__, __[Paramount](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PARA)__, and __Warner Bros.__ agreed to immediately halt movie [releases](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60566286#:~:text=%22Given%20the%20unprovoked%20invasion%20of,other%20humanitarian%20assistance%20to%20refugees%22.) in Russia (no “Batman” premiere this weekend in Moscow). On the tech front, __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ pulled Kremlin-backed news outlets from its app store, while __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ and __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ [blocked](https://wgntv.com/news/social-media-platforms-prevent-russian-backed-media-from-earning-ad-revenue/) Russia’s state-media outlets from monetizing on their platforms.
- __Cutting bait:__ __[BP](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BP)__ dumped a near 20% stake in its Russia-related energy biz, while __[Shell](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SHEL)__ ditched its Russian oil ventures, including its stake in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. __[Uber’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ looking to sell its remaining $800M stake in Russian ride-hailer __[Yandex](https://robinhood.com/stocks/YNDX)__, and __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ has stopped selling all its products in Russia.

A man wearing a Ukrainian flag ribbon at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona on Tuesday [AFP via Getty]

Squeeze

__Corporate resistance can take time to unfold…__ Corporate boards worldwide are calculating the risk vs. reward of doing biz in or with Russia. While many companies want to pressure Putin to stop the war, ditching operations in a major country isn’t always easy — and could also hurt share prices. That could be partly why some US companies with high exposure in Russia haven’t acted yet. A tragic consequence: some corporate actions are hurting innocent Eastern Europeans now. 

From BP to Disney, Western companies are flexing “soft power” by cutting ties with Russia

__Just *don’t* do it…__ Retailers like __[Foot Locker](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FL)__ need brands like __[Nike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKE)__. But brands don’t always share the love. Foot Locker shares have fallen nearly 30% since last Thursday. That’s when the sneaker retailer said it [expected](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/foot-locker-fl-reports-q4-2021-earnings.html) sales to slip this year as top vendor Nike sells fewer shoes in its stores. The sneaker giant says it won’t fully abandon Foot Locker, but will reduce inventory to ensure scarcity and sell more top kicks directly to buyers. 

- __Big shoes to fill:__ Foot Locker [expects](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-01/nike-should-be-the-next-luxury-fashion-house?sref=q3KSFp38) Nike sales to make up 60% of total sales this year, down from 70% last year and 75% in 2020. 
- __To make up for lost Nike $$,__ Foot Locker plans to stock more __[Adidas](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ADDYY)__, __Puma__, __New Balance__, and __[Crocs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CROX)__.

__Kicked to the curb…__ Nike makes twice as much profit selling shoes directly as it does wholesale, so it’s not surprising that it’s focusing less on retailers. By investing in its own stores and apps, Nike has more than [doubled](https://www.retaildive.com/news/how-nike-is-using-dtc-and-data-to-expand-its-empire/596602/) its D2C sales since 2011, to 35% last year. At the same time, Nike has been unlacing retailer relationships:

- __Nike stopped selling__ its shoes on __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ in 2019 to push customers to its sites, and ended partnerships with __DSW__, __Zappos__, __[Dillard’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DDS)__, and __[Urban Outfitters](https://robinhood.com/stocks/URBN)__.
- __Other shoe giants__ like __[Under Armour](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UA)__ and Adidas have also ditched retailers to boost D2C sales. But __[Allbirds](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BIRD)__, a smaller shoe biz that started out D2C, is investing in wholesale to tap new customers.

Untied

__Markdowns scuff brand image…__ Nike’s D2C push is all about [control](https://www.forbes.com/sites/warrenshoulberg/2022/03/01/swoosh-why-nikes-foot-locker-exit-could-devastate-other-retailers/?sh=faeb08e6d6d9). If Nike can control its supply, it can control its brand image — and if Nike can elevate its brand image, it can sell shoes for higher prices. But Nike can pitch Jordans as luxury items only if they’re *not* available in Foot Locker’s clearance bin. As the Swoosh moves up market, it could expand past partnerships with luxe brands like __[LVMH](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LVMUY)__, whose profits are soaring despite inflation.

Nike tries to luxe-ify its brand by selling less at Foot Locker and more directly to consumer

From BP to Disney, Western companies flex “soft power” by cutting ties with Russia

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