USA government shutdown, political crisis concept illustration

(Getty Images)

THE BILL, PLEASE

The Senate just advanced a deal that could end the government shutdown

Prediction markets have done a U-turn as Washington looks to end the longest government shutdown in US history.

11/10/25 7:28AM

The longest government shutdown in US history — so far lasting a full 40 days since funding authorization expired on October 1 — might soon come to an end.

On Sunday evening, the Senate announced the advancement of a tentative compromise bill, following a procedural vote that saw a group of Democrats cross party lines to win by a 60-40 margin, reaching exactly the minimum number of votes needed to overcome the filibuster.

While this deal marks the first step in finally reopening the government — and keeping it funded until the end of January — there are several more hurdles it needs to clear before we get back to business as usual, including being passed by the Senate and signed off by the House of Representatives.

Still, that hasn’t stopped prediction market traders from quickly reacting to the news.

Having grown increasingly pessimistic over the last month, traders on the “When will the Government shutdown end?” contract offered by Polymarket piled heavily into positions that pay out if the shutdown ends earlier.

Indeed, in aggregate, Polymarket data reveals that traders are pricing in the chance of the shutdown ending between November 12 and 15 at 87% as of 5 a.m. ET on Monday, up from ~30% at the end of last week. The implied odds of the shutdown continuing beyond November 16, meanwhile, have plummeted.

Fed, interrupted

As prediction markets reflect a newfound optimism that the federal closure could soon conclude, so too have Wall Street and global markets rallied on the news. Seemingly, the stock market and US citizens alike are eagerly awaiting a reopening: a YouGov poll published Friday found that 36% of Americans now say the federal government shutdown is affecting them a great deal or somewhat — up from 21% recorded a month ago.

Jake Lahut6h

Who’s next to leave the Trump admin following Chavez-DeRemer’s departure?

After a few abandoned nominations and the occasional lateral demotion during President Donald Trump’s first year in office, turnover has accelerated dramatically.

Just in the past month, top officials such as Attorney General Pam Bondi, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer have left their posts.

Following a report from The Atlantic alleging heavy drinking and absenteeism plaguing FBI Director Kash Patel, the odds of his departure from the Trump administration in 2026 shot up sharply, with traders now pricing in an 80% chance he won’t last the year.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, is another official who could be on the ropes. Her deputy, Joe Kent, has already resigned over the Iran war. Gabbard’s 2020 presidential campaign — and appeal in broadening Trump’s electorate in 2024 — heavily centered around ending perpetual “regime change wars.” The White House has indicated to Gabbard that they want her gone before the midterms, but the timing of her departure remains vague, according to two sources familiar with the discussions who spoke to Sherwood News in recent weeks.

As for who will replace the outgoing members, pay attention to who can be confirmed by the Senate. To replace Bondi, a Trump adviser told Sherwood the most likely replacements are acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trump’s former personal attorney, as well as EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.

Which Trump officials might be next to leave the administration

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

$1.4B

Rani Molla10h

In an effort to cement control ahead of SpaceX’s IPO, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk bought $1.4 billion in shares of the rocket company from current and former employees last year, The Information reports, citing the confidential IPO prospectus.

The filing also revealed a moon shot incentive plan for the boss: Musk stands to gain 60 million more shares if SpaceX’s market cap increases to as high as $6.6 trillion and it completes a plan to build AI data centers in space. For its June IPO, the company is targeting a more than $2 trillion valuation.

Jake Lahut4/20/26

Lori Chavez-DeRemer out at Department of Labor

Lori Chavez-DeRemer resigned as President Donald Trump’s labor secretary on Monday, sources familiar with the matter told NOTUS.

Her tenure at the department was mired in scandal, including her husband being barred from headquarters after women employees reported he had touched them inappropriately. Chavez-DeRemer and a top aide reportedly texted women on staff to “pay attention” to the secretary’s husband and her father around the office, according to The New York Times.

The department’s inspector general had been investigating those messages and personal requests made of staff members.

Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer Has Resigned

Jon Keegan4/17/26

Report: Anthropic’s Amodei headed to White House to settle dispute

In February, President Trump called Anthropic “A RADICAL LEFT, WOKE COMPANY,” and said of the company’s Claude AI technology: “We don’t need it, we don’t want it, and will not do business with them again!”

Now, less than two months later, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is scheduled to meet with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles today, according to a report from Axios.

After being declared a supply chain risk to national security by the Pentagon, and then suing the government to block the action, Anthropic finds itself in a powerful position: it has announced that its new Mythos AI model is capable of planning and executing offensive cyberattacks, and therefore would be shared only with a close group of trusted partners for testing before wider release, leading the US Treasury to try to get its hands on the new model.

The White House meeting is expected to result in some sort of deal that settles the dispute with the company, per the report.

Scoop: Anthropic to have peace talks at White House

The White House meeting is expected to result in some sort of deal that settles the dispute with the company, per the report.

Jon Keegan4/15/26

Maine is the first to pass a statewide ban on large data centers

The tide is turning against big AI data centers.

In addition to many cities and towns that have passed outright bans on data centers, lawmakers in at least 11 states have introduced legislation to pause their construction, citing the need to carefully study power and water usage of the facilities.

But Maine just became the first state to successfully pass a ban on large data centers. If Maine Governor Janet Mills signs the bill into law, new data centers that draw more than 20 gigawatts of power would be banned until late 2027, and the state would set up a mechanism to study the impact of data center energy usage.

Last month, a federal bill was introduced to block new data centers until AI regulation has been passed. The issue has been getting more attention in this election year, as voters in data center hubs like Virginia have soured on the facilities.

Look at the crumbling support among Virginians (America's first data center hot spot) for data centers:

Maine lawmakers pass nation’s first statewide ban on large data centers