Following a report from The Atlantic alleging heavy drinking and absenteeism plaguing FBI Director Kash Patel, the odds of his departure from the Trump administration in 2026 shot up sharply, with traders now pricing in an 80% chance he won’t last the year.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, is another official who could be on the ropes. Her deputy, Joe Kent, has already resigned over the Iran war. Gabbard’s 2020 presidential campaign — and appeal in broadening Trump’s electorate in 2024 — heavily centered around ending perpetual “regime change wars.” The White House has indicated to Gabbard that they want her gone before the midterms, but the timing of her departure remains vague, according to two sources familiar with the discussions who spoke to Sherwood News in recent weeks.
As for who will replace the outgoing members, pay attention to who can be confirmed by the Senate. To replace Bondi, a Trump adviser told Sherwood the most likely replacements are acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trump’s former personal attorney, as well as EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.
