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Warren Buffett is building cash as the market soars


If Warren Buffett is selling, should you be buying?

It’s worth considering, as Berkshire Hathaway, the company run by the world’s greatest value investor, has been building a massive $325 billion pile of cash as the stock market soars.

This isn’t a big mystery. The cash build can be explained by the simple fact that Buffett, age 94, and the whippersnappers who do most of the daily trading at his shop are value investors.

It means they try to buy stocks when they are cheap — that is, undervalued, essentially when they have low price-to-earnings ratios.

And it has become abundantly clear that US stocks sure ain’t cheap at the moment, and there are few bargains to be had. That doesn’t mean the market is going to crash. Stocks can stay overvalued for a long time.

But if you happen to have a few hundred billion on your hands, and short-term Treasury bills are paying 4.50% annualized, why not stuff $325 billion into them, generating about $15 billion a year in risk-free returns? Sounds good to me.

This piece was updated to correct “millions” to “billions” in final paragraph.

This isn’t a big mystery. The cash build can be explained by the simple fact that Buffett, age 94, and the whippersnappers who do most of the daily trading at his shop are value investors.

It means they try to buy stocks when they are cheap — that is, undervalued, essentially when they have low price-to-earnings ratios.

And it has become abundantly clear that US stocks sure ain’t cheap at the moment, and there are few bargains to be had. That doesn’t mean the market is going to crash. Stocks can stay overvalued for a long time.

But if you happen to have a few hundred billion on your hands, and short-term Treasury bills are paying 4.50% annualized, why not stuff $325 billion into them, generating about $15 billion a year in risk-free returns? Sounds good to me.

This piece was updated to correct “millions” to “billions” in final paragraph.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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