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Luke Kawa

Volatile stocks are getting shellacked — and they’re the jumpiest they’ve been since the aftermath of April’s tariff announcements

The high-flying, more speculative pockets of the market are getting crushed today, after ripping higher yesterday, which was preceded by them getting slammed on Tuesday.

So if you think volatile stocks beloved by retail traders have been, well, more volatile lately, you wouldn’t be wrong.

Two baskets compiled by Goldman Sachs that track “non-profitable tech” and “high-beta momentum long” stocks have seen their annualized 21-day realized volatility spike to levels not seen since May — that is, when the carnage of early April’s mauling after the announcement of reciprocal tariffs was still in the observation window.

As we’ve recently discussed, these two cohorts have effectively been a version of the “corporate wants you to find the difference between these pictures” meme for the past few months. In other words, they’re swinging in unison.

“In contrast to the behavior observed during the post-Liberation Day selloff, retail investors did not seize the opportunity to buy-the-dip on Tuesday, with a few exceptions such as META,” writes JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain. “In fact, they scaled back their ETF purchases and turned net sellers in single stocks.”

The S&P 500 is less than 3% off from its all-time high. When volatile stocks were this jumpy ahead of those aforementioned Rose Garden decrees, the benchmark US stock index was already nearly 10% off its peak.

Names that broadly fit the retail-cherished, high-beta descriptor and have a loose relationship with profitability include Oklo, IREN, Cipher Digital, POET Technologies, CoreWeave, SoundHound AI, Plug Power, Rigetti Computing, Bloom Energy, Opendoor Technologies, and D-Wave Quantum. They’re all down big on Thursday.

If you think the stock market has played an important role in supporting US consumption this year, you can make an argument that this is the kind of thing that could have a negative impact on economic activity. In an asset-backed economy, high-beta speculative momentum stocks might actually be the real cyclicals.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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