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VF Corp. and Canada Goose climb higher on Baird upgrades as key fall shopping season kicks off

Analysts say a refreshed Vans playbook and buzzy Goose collections could fuel momentum during the back-to-school stretch.

Nia Warfield

Baird analysts are shopping for opportunities this season, upgrading VF Corp. and Canada Goose ahead of the crucial fall shopping stretch as brand refreshes, consumer buzz, and easing headwinds build optimism.

VF Corp.
Price target: $20, up from $14
Rating: “outperform” (from “neutral”)

VF Corp. shares jumped 5.6% after Baird upgraded the Vans and The North Face parent, betting the company is turning a corner. Analysts pointed to easing self-inflicted headwinds at Vans, which had been dragging results for several quarters. New product cycles, high-profile marketing moves (including an upcoming collection from singer SZA), and faster inventory resets could help the skate brand get back in step with younger shoppers.

At the same time, cost cutting and debt reduction are expected to shore up profitability, while The North Face remains a steady performer in outdoor wear. Tariffs are still a cloud, with VF estimating duties could slice roughly $40 million off fiscal 2025 profits, but Baird says the stock’s 50% drop from highs already reflects the risk and leaves more room for upside if the Vans reset pays off.

Canada Goose
Price target: CA$24, up from CA$18
Rating: “outperform” (from “neutral”)

Canada Goose shares climbed 5.9% after Baird also boosted its outlook for the outerwear company, citing a strong start to the year and signs of brand traction ahead of peak winter buying. Direct-to-consumer comps rose nearly 15% last quarter, powered by new spring and summer offerings, a hit Snow Goose capsule, and better in-store execution. Analysts also highlighted the brand’s expanding presence in China, where livestream shopping is giving it another leg up with luxury consumers.

Still, margins have been weighed down by heavy investment in marketing and brand refreshes. But Baird argues that with Goose still trading well below its 52-week highs, a combination of fresher product, improving seasonal leverage, and potential takeover interest will boost the company’s shares.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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