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US stocks get hot as inflation cools by more than expected

Annual core CPI inflation falls to lowest level since March 2021.

Luke Kawa

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF extended its premarket gains after inflation data came in well below economists’ expectations, offering some fresh justification for the interest rate cuts already delivered by the Federal Reserve and prompting traders to bet on the prospect of more to come.

On an annual basis, core CPI inflation rose just 2.6% year over year, while the consensus estimate was for 3%. It’s now at its lowest level since March 2021.

Core CPI inflation increased from 0.159% from November relative to September.

(October data collection for this series was marred by the government shutdown.)

Analysts warned that this lack of data, and decisions made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on how to handle it, muddied the water for this inflation print and overstate how much price pressures moderated.

“The BLS just assumed rent/OER were zero for October,” wrote Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights. “I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a two-month average for rent of 0.06% and OER at 0.135% is assuming October was zero.”

Nonetheless, that on its own is not enough to account for the magnitude of how much inflation cooled. Traders expect that this softer-than-expected inflation may provide more scope for the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate again soon as the unemployment rate creeps higher.

Event contracts show that the likelihood of the US central bank reducing its policy rate in January rose from about 25% to above 30% following this release.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

“The November CPI report suggests that a loosening labor market and moderating wage growth, combined with limited pass-through of tariffs and moderating shelter costs, are finally corralling inflation,” Bank of Montreal economist Sal Guatieri wrote. “The FOMC will take much comfort from the report, allowing it to focus on addressing the weakness in labor markets.”

The Federal Reserve, for what it’s worth, prefers to track core PCE inflation as an underlying gauge of price pressures, but many elements in the CPI also go into that metric, as well.

Over the past 30 years, annual core CPI inflation has run about 40 basis points hotter than core PCE.

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

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US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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