Markets
Man pumping gas at Gas Station, Florida
Florida man pumping gas (Getty Images)

US gas prices exceed $3.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2024

Prediction markets no longer see $4 gas as likely at the end of March, however.

Luke Kawa

Gasoline is the most expensive it’s been since the peak of the driving season in 2024.

The national average price in the US rose to $3.539 on Tuesday, per the American Automobile Association, its first time above the $3.50 threshold since July 29, 2024.

Crossing this threshold might result in gasoline prices becoming a much more salient issue, particularly for those who get their news from TV. A 2024 analysis from Briefing Book, a Substack authored by academics with research and policy experience, found that TV coverage of gas prices tends to ramp up after the nominal gas price hits $3.50.

However, if crude oil prices continue to stay off the boil, these higher prices could prove short-lived.

Traders in prediction markets currently anticipate that gas will end the week between $3.71 and $3.83, as of 7:10 a.m. ET. The prediction market-implied odds for the price of gas at the end of the month is a range of $3.70 to $3.90, down meaningfully from expectations of $4.10 to $4.30 on Monday morning.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Read more: Where have gas prices jumped the most since the US attack on Iran?

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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