markets

Luke Kawa10/28/25

Trump Media rises on plans to make event contracts available on Truth Social in partnership with Crypto.com

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group are up after the company announced that it will be making prediction markets available on its Truth Social platform through its partnership with Crypto.com.

Users “will be able to trade prediction contracts related to major events and milestones, such as political elections, interest and inflation rate changes, commodity prices on gold and crude oil, events across all major sports leagues, and more,” per the press release. Beta testing is to begin “in the near future,” followed by a full US launch with designs on a global rollout.

Speech is free and talk is cheap — until you put your money where your mouth is. Prediction markets are a booming business, with Piper Sandler estimating that volumes at Kalshi and Polymarket are poised to be up 91% month on month in October, driven in part by interest into contracts tied to the outcomes of sporting events.

The ascension of prediction markets has been viewed as negative for the “traditional” domains for online sports betting, with the likes of DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment suffering as prediction market activity linked to sports picks up steam. Both these firms, which are looking to increase their footprints in the event contracts space, are selling off as this new entrant also threatens to eat away at market share and, more importantly, a large rival plans a reentrance, with Bloomberg reporting that Polymarket is “preparing to return to the US in the coming weeks with a focus on sports betting,” citing people familiar.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. Event contracts trading is offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a registered futures commission merchant with the CFTC.)

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markets

Helena Cheng23h

Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.
Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemon’s geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected “halo effect” across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemon’s valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retail’s richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi O’Neill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brand’s growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

markets

US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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