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Lightspeed Founder and Partner Ravi Mhatre (Steve Jennings/Getty Images)
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Swashbuckling venture capital is slowly becoming boring old private equity

Lightspeed may lead a wave of VC firms making PE-like investments as the amount of money they manage continues to increase.

Jack Raines

The venture capital business model has, historically, looked something like this: investors would identify promising startups, they would invest some amount of money in these startups, and a few of the startups would (hopefully) either get acquired or go public at a much higher valuation, generating outsized returns that more than paid back the entire value of the fund. Venture funds typically charge their limited partners (LPs)  “2 and 20,” or a 2% management fee as well as 20% of the fund’s profits.

One constraint of this business model has been total market size: startups are relatively small companies (at least compared to their publicly traded peers) in which investors typically deploy relatively small amounts of capital (excluding, of course, outliers that can raise $6.5 billion or whatever), and only a minority of these startups will generate outsized positive returns. The result: effectively deploying capital becomes more difficult as a fund’s size grows. $100 million is easy to deploy across several early stage deals. $5 billion? That’s much tougher. With regards to compensation, venture funds face a tradeoff: more assets under management pays higher management fees, but it can create a drag on performance that reduces profit potential.

Another issue facing venture capital lately has been fewer exit opportunities. Companies are increasingly choosing to stay private longer, IPO activity since 2022 has been sluggish at best, and regulators have shown increased scrutiny toward mergers and acquisitions. The result: global VC exits by both volume and total market value hit five-year lows in 2023, impacting venture returns.

But what if there were a solution that could solve venture capital’s size constraints and liquidity problems? It turns out, there is, and it’s called “private equity.”

Unlike venture funds, which write small checks to small companies, PE funds typically take much larger controlling stakes in mature companies, where they look to improve operating leverage before either selling them (often to other private equity firms) or taking them public. If a venture fund were to, say, make private equity-like investments, it could presumably deploy a lot more capital, allowing the fund to charge a lot more in management fees, and the company would have a new pool for potential buyers of its portfolio companies as well: other PE funds.

Lightspeed Venture Partners, a Menlo Park-based venture firm with $25 billion in AUM, appears to be doing just that. The venture firm is looking to raise $7 billion across three new funds, and ~40% of that funding is going to investments that look a lot like private equity. From The Information:

Close to 40% of the new money will go to an opportunity fund that will make follow-on investments in its portfolio companies and buy shares in late-stage startups such as Stripe and Rippling from existing investors. In some cases, Lightspeed will seek controlling stakes in aging enterprise software startups and try to prepare the companies for a sale or public listing.

Assuming a 2 and 20 structure, a $7 billion fundraise represents $140 million in annual management fees — not a bad payday. Additionally, its investment strategy aligns well with current market conditions. Lightspeed’s line of thinking probably goes something like this:

“There are several late-stage private companies with investors that want to offload stakes on the secondary market. Why not raise a fund to buy some of those stakes, potentially at a discount, if those funds need to return capital to their LPs? And while we’re at it, we might as well go full-buyout mode and acquire controlling stakes in some mature companies, too.”

While 60% of Lightspeed Venture Partners’ new capital will go toward funding investments in growth-stage and early-stage startups, this ~40% is “venture” capital in name only, not that that’s a bad thing. At the end of the day, investment groups are in the business of making money, and if private equity practices present a more lucrative investment opportunity than traditional venture, I believe we’ll see other large venture funds building out private equity-like vehicles, too.

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BlackBerry is on one of its hottest rallies of all time

History suggests that BlackBerry does extremely well when 1) it’s considered to be pioneering a transformative technology, or 2) there’s widespread retail enthusiasm for stocks.

If you squint (or dream), you could argue that both are going on right now.

Shares of the once-upon-a-time smartphone giant are up more than 160% over the past three months. The only times the shares have had a hotter run of form than this are at the tail end of the dot-com bubble, and in early 2021 when was it part of the meme stock craze headlined by GameStop.

Let’s start with the easy part first — here’s Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel, on retail’s significant footprint in the shares’ rally:

“Retail traders are the new price setters in the market. May volumes across our retail cash equities and options platforms are currently tracking at record levels. Daily volumes on our cash platform are setting new highs and are on pace to finish nearly ~10% above the previous record established during the January 2021 meme-stock era.”

And then there’s the harder part, part of the story that the traders bidding up BlackBerry now are dreaming about: the QNX division, which offers software that the company is positioning as an operating system for robots.

QNX’s software has early uptake in the field of autonomous driving, with BlackBerry eyeing a much more widespread role: in April, it announced a partnership to deploy this technology on Nvidia’s robotics platform. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, for his part, has long been calling for agentic AI adoption to be followed by physical AI (i.e., robots).

In a QNX press release unveiling a report this week, the company argued that software, not hardware, is the real problem in terms of making sure robotics works.

I supposed it would be poetic, in a way, if the company at the leading edge of the smartphone revolution also plays a big role in the proliferation of robotics.

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Luke Kawa

Micron and Sandisk rally on new Street-high price targets from Susquehanna

Micron and Sandisk both hit fresh all-time highs in early trading after Susquehanna bestowed new Wall Street-high price targets on the two memory stocks.

Analyst Mehdi Hosseini upped his view on the former to $1,750 from $600, and to $3,250 from $2,000 for the latter.

“Supply is now expected to remain tight through 2027, sustaining elevated margins and thus warranting valuation re-rating,” he wrote, per Bloomberg.

It’s the fifth time in the past year that the average price target on Micron has gone up by more than 10% in a week. UBS’s Tim Arcuri more than tripled his price target on Micron earlier this week, and has already lost the title of “most bullish.”

But even as analysts are tripping over themselves to raise their price targets on these stocks, the ferocity of the rally in Micron has outpaced their best efforts.

The high-bandwidth memory specialist traded at a record premium to the consensus Wall Street price target this week, based on data going back to 2008.

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Okta soars on Q1 earnings beat, raised outlook driven by AI security demand

Okta shares are surging in early trading Friday after the identity security provider posted Q1 fiscal 2027 financial results that exceeded Wall Street estimates. The strong results are fueled by accelerating corporate demand for cybersecurity software, as well as the deployment of autonomous AI systems.

Key numbers:

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.91 compared to analysts estimate of $0.85.

  • Revenue of $765 million compared to an estimate of $752.7 million.

The company generated subscription revenue of $750 million, up 11% year over year. Okta also has $271 million in free cash flow, up from $238 million in the prior years quarter.

While standard cybersecurity software protects human workers, the latest catalyst sparking Oktas strong corporate performance is the rapid emergence of autonomous AI agents that can access sensitive corporate databases and interact with privileged executive accounts.

“AI agents are rapidly becoming a new workforce inside every organization, creating a wave of identities that must be secured and governed alongside human users,” said Todd McKinnon, CEO and cofounder of Okta. “We’re expanding our opportunity as the world’s leading independent and neutral identity provider and helping customers make identity the unified control plane for their secure agentic enterprise.”

Okta raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to between $3.185 billion and $3.205 billion, roughly in line with estimates of $3.18 billion. The company formally dropped its long-term projected non-GAAP tax rate from 26% down to 21%. This adjustment is a direct byproduct of the federal corporate tax frameworks under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Shares of Okta have risen around 9% since the beginning of this year.

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HPE, SMCI surge after Dell’s Q1 beat on strong AI server demand

HP Enterprise and Super Micro Computer shares are surging in premarket trading, getting a big boost from rival Dell’s strong Q1 results.

Dell’s $16.1 billion in AI-optimized server sales for the quarter alone proved that enterprise data center demand is accelerating faster than Wall Street had anticipated. The company posted revenue of $43.8 billion, exceeding Street estimates of $35.5 billion. Management now sees full-year sales of about $167 billion, well above the $142 billion expected by analysts.

The read-through is particularly relevant for Super Micro, one of the largest suppliers of Nvidia-powered AI server systems, and HPE, which has been expanding its AI infrastructure and liquid-cooling offerings through its partnership with Nvidia.

The moves suggest investors view AI infrastructure as a broad spending cycle that benefits server makers across the entire ecosystem.

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