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Luke Kawa10/23/25

Super Micro slumps after announcing preliminary Q1 net sales far below Wall Street’s expectations

Super Micro Computer is slumping after management delivered a preliminary revenue update that came in far short of what Wall Street was expecting.

Net sales for the quarter ended September 30 (the company’s fiscal Q1 2026) will be about $5 billion, according to a press release, which is below its guidance for $6 billion to $7 billion and below the average analyst estimate of just short of $6.5 billion.

Management attributed this to “recent design wins in excess of $12 billion, requesting delivery in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 (Q2’26).”

Charles Liang, president and CEO, reiterated the company’s expectation of $33 billion in revenues for the fiscal year that started in July, saying, “We see customer demand accelerating, and we are gaining AI share.”

If net sales do come in around $5 billion, that would be a roughly 20% decline versus the same period in 2024.

This is not the first time this year that Super Micro has pre-announced a revenue miss and effectively blamed it on timing issues.

On April 29, the company pre-announced disappointing results and said, “During Q3 some delayed customer platform decisions moved sales into Q4.” Pushing back the timing of a big revenue ramp has been a common theme for Super Micro throughout the year.

As we wrote in August:

“If I could boil down the cause of the substantial volatility in shares of Super Micro Computer this year to one sentence, it would be this: it’s in the AI business — which is clearly booming — and management makes big promises on sales that it fails to deliver on.

Sales are the football, management is Lucy, and investors are Charlie Brown, falling for each renewed promise and then having it yanked away and landing flat on their backs.”

Super Micro scheduled an earnings call for November 4 to discuss the outlook for second-quarter revenues and deliveries.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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