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Stocks rally, oil falls as US and Iran reportedly close in on deal to end war

Stocks rallied and oil prices fell after Axios reported that the White House is closing in on an agreement to end the war with Iran, which would lift restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

The one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the war also reportedly includes Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment and the US agreeing to lift its sanctions, among other things.

Many of the terms would hinge on a final agreement being reached, potentially leaving the chance for “an extended limbo in which the hot war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved,” per Axios.

S&P 500 futures, which were already in the green in the early hours of Wednesday, got a jolt on the news and are currently up 0.7% as of 6 a.m. ET.

Brent crude futures fell 6.90% to $102.29 per barrel. Oil and gas producers like Occidental Petroleum, Coterra Energy, APA Corporation, and ConocoPhillips fell in premarket trading along with oil giants Exxon and Chevron.

Meanwhile, airlines and cruise lines — several of which just told investors high fuel prices would weigh on their profits — rose in early trading. Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, JetBlue, American Airlines, Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian all rose.

Many of the terms would hinge on a final agreement being reached, potentially leaving the chance for “an extended limbo in which the hot war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved,” per Axios.

S&P 500 futures, which were already in the green in the early hours of Wednesday, got a jolt on the news and are currently up 0.7% as of 6 a.m. ET.

Brent crude futures fell 6.90% to $102.29 per barrel. Oil and gas producers like Occidental Petroleum, Coterra Energy, APA Corporation, and ConocoPhillips fell in premarket trading along with oil giants Exxon and Chevron.

Meanwhile, airlines and cruise lines — several of which just told investors high fuel prices would weigh on their profits — rose in early trading. Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, JetBlue, American Airlines, Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian all rose.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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