Yiwen Lu11/4/24

US stocks lose traction before election

The S&P 500 finished Monday down 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%. The Russell 2000, which opened the day in negative territory, climbed 0.4%.

Bonds rose. The 10-year Treasury yields fell eight basis points to 4.29% after a rebound last week. Dollar lost some ground ahead of the election. Bitcoin also fell.

Position squaring ahead of Tuesday’s vote was a clear theme of the day. Clean-energy stocks like First Solar and Enphase Energy were among the biggest gainers of the day, as poll numbers indicated rising odds of a Harris presidency. A basket of stocks highlighted by Goldman Sachs as benefiting from Democrats gaining political power outperformed their Republican counterparts by the most since the session following the presidential debate between Trump and Harris.

The energy sector ETF advanced 1.8%. It joined the rise in crude-oil futures, which hit its highest point in a week, after members of OPEC+ oil-producing nations formally extended their current oil-production curbs. Both the US and global benchmark crude rose more than 2%.

The utilities sector was the biggest laggard on the day, down 1.2%. Constellation Energy, a utility stock that soared this year on its plan to restart Three Mile Island, fell 12.5% after regulators blocked another electric-power producer’s nuclear power deal with Amazon.

Among other single stocks, Fox rose 2.8% after reporting a political-advertising-led revenue surge.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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