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Software stocks fall as ebbing geopolitical risks prompt renewed focus on long-term disruption

In fact, it’s never been more likely that if semis are outperforming the S&P 500, software is lagging.

With investors now less worried about what a war and spike in oil prices will do to the global economy, they’ve returned to worrying about what AI tools will do to software stocks.

The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF is getting dumped hard again on Thursday after having given up a gain of nearly 4% on Wednesday to close about 1% lower. That was the biggest reversal from well in the green to deep in the red for the software ETF in exactly one year, when stocks hit their 2025 lows the day before President Trump watered down his reciprocal tariff regime.

The drop comes a day after Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents, designed to streamline, automate, and increase the use of its tools in workflows. The Claude maker, which seems to be going from strength to strength, recently talked up the power of its upcoming Mythos model, with OpenAI saying similar things about one of its own tools.

High-profile industry names punished on Thursday include Palantir Technologies, Atlassian, GitLab, ServiceNow, Workday, Adobe, and Salesforce.

While the software ETF is poised to close at a fresh 52-week low as of 11:17 a.m. ET, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF is on track to post a record closing high.

The divergence between the two industries within tech should come as no surprise. In fact, it’s never been more likely that if semis are outperforming the S&P 500, software is lagging (and vice versa):

The fundamentals behind the mechanics: the true enablers of software disruption (presumably Anthropic, and to a lesser extent OpenAI) may be privately held. Those are the firms that are lowering the barriers to entry to software and raising the prospect of lower supply, or a lower cost of production. But in order to do that, these AI tools need to be powered by a ton of chips (and memory, and networking equipment), making that hardware scarce. And there’s certainly a number of publicly traded companies available that investors have loved as beneficiaries of this demand for compute.

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

markets

US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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