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Software slump resumes after high-profile companies issue underwhelming outlooks

The nascent recovery in software stocks has become unglued thanks to negative news both foreign and domestic.

Luke Kawa

Well, it was fun while it lasted.

The nascent recovery in software stocks has become unglued thanks to negative news both foreign and domestic:

Over in France, Dassault Systèmes suffered its worst-ever loss after the software company beloved by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang posted disappointing Q4 results and 2026 sales and earnings guidance that fell short of estimates. JPMorgan analyst Toby Ogg said the results were “worse than even the most negative investors we’ve spoken to.”

Stateside, Unity Software is crumbling after issuing weak Q1 guidance, with both pillars of its business — the gaming engine and ad tech — facing competitive pressures from AI tools and new entrants.

That outlook will rejuvenate fears that swaths of the software industry (among others!) is at risk of having its high-margin, recurring revenue business models disrupted by this new technology. Unity peer AppLovin, which reports after the bell on Wednesday, is feeling the pain in early trading.

Atlassian, GitLab, Salesforce, ServiceNow, Adobe, and Oracle are among the other names selling off in sympathy.

(Teradata, on the other hand, is one of the exceptions that proves the rule on Wednesday, up nearly 40% after posting better-than-expected Q4 results and guidance.)

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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