The market smells a rate cut

Odds derived from the Fed funds futures market — and published by the CME — put a 98% probability on the Fed cutting rates when it meets in September. (That market is just as certain that the US central bank doesn’t do a thing when it makes its next decision July 31.) I’ve heard there’s been some news in the world of presidential politics. But for my money, the return of rate cuts — unseen since February 2020 — is a bigger deal for the markets than any regime change at the White House.

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Luke Kawa3h

US stock futures erase losses on report of new Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

S&P 500 futures erased small losses on Sunday evening after Axios reported that Iran, through Pakistan, is offering a fresh proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict. West Texas Intermediate futures are off their highs, but still up 1.6% as of 9:33 p.m. ET. According to Axios, this deal would punt the issue of Iran’s nuclear program to a later date.

This new potential off-ramp follows some less than encouraging news on the status of talks between the two sides. On Saturday, President Donald Trump said that he canceled a trip to Pakistan during which Steve Witkoff (special envoy to the Middle East) and Jared Kushner (Trump’s son-in-law) had been expected to negotiate with Iran. On Sunday, Trump told Fox News that Iran “can come to us, or they can call us” if they want to talk.

The Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil flows, has been largely closed since the conflict started roughly two months ago, despite a ceasefire agreement that was said to be contingent on the reopening of this waterway. In addition to Iranian military threats, which initially made passage through the strait too dangerous for most vessels to attempt, the US has also recently started a naval blockade to limit Iranian oil exports.

Tasha Matsumoto

4/24/26

Stocks climb to new record highs on peace talk optimism and tech rally

Stocks rose on news that President Trump will send Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to Pakistan to negotiate peace talks with Iran. Additionally, Intel’s Q1 earnings crush lifted semiconductor stocks.

Michael Jordan #23, Shooting Guard and Small Forward for the Chicago Bulls wearing a warm up jacket looks on during player introductions before the NBA Midwest Division basketball game against the Denver Nuggets

Max Knoblauch4/24/26

Spectrum owner Charter Communications is on pace for its worst day ever as broadband numbers and Q1 results disappoint

Cable and broadband company Charter Communications is on pace for its worst-ever trading day on Friday, as investors dump the stock following its Q1 results and forward guidance.

Charter, which owns Spectrum, reported adjusted earnings of $9.17 per share, below Wall Street estimates of $9.96 per share from analysts polled by FactSet. On the company’s earnings call, CFO Jessica Fischer appeared to lower its guidance for full-year revenue per user.

“It’ll be close either way in terms of whether we end up with net growth,” Fischer said.

The company lost 120,000 internet subscribers in the quarter, deeper than the expected 94,800 and double its loss from the same period last year. That news comes one day after Comcast’s earnings provided a bit of optimism for broadband as a category: the company reported Q1 losses of 65,000, significantly improving from 183,000 losses in the same quarter last year. Comcast is down more than 10%, on pace for its worst day since January 2025.

Luke Kawa

4/24/26

Google to reportedly invest up to $40 billion in Anthropic

Amazon announced plans to deepen its investment in the Claude developer earlier this week.

Luke Kawa4/24/26

Nvidia poised to snap longest run without a record close since the AI boom began

The stock price of the company responsible for the brains of the AI boom is finally showing some brawn again.

Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, is poised to close at a record high for the first time since October 29, 2025, on Friday (if it ends above $207.04).

The AI chip trade is on fire, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index slated to deliver its 18th consecutive gain as Intel’s robust results and outlook juice the entire ecosystem. Hyperscalers report earnings next week, and their capex guidance can be thought of as the earnings guidance for Nvidia and other AI suppliers for the quarters to come.

This would end Nvidia’s longest stretch without a record close since the unofficial start of the AI boom (when the chip designer delivered blowout quarterly results in May 2023).

(Sorry if I jinx this!)

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