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Analysts are betting on banks to drive another big jump in S&P 500 profits

S&P 500 earnings per share are expected to be up 11% from Q4 2023.

Matt Phillips

Analysts expect that Q4 earnings results — which are set to unofficially start tomorrow with numbers from financial behemoths like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, among others — will be up a blockbuster 11% from the previous year, according to FactSet.

Given that financials start the reporting extravaganza, it’s worth noting that this group is expected to be the single largest contributor to earnings growth (~40% EPS growth, per FactSet) of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500. That’s largely due to easy comparisons with Q4 2023, when banks were forced to cough up billions as part of a special assessment from the FDIC to cover the costs of the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic.

The communications-services sector — home to Meta and Alphabet — is expected to be the second-largest contributor to growth. Meta’s earnings per share are forecast to jump more than 25%, and Alphabet’s are seen as rising 30%. The information-technology sector, where Nvidia and other semiconductor stocks are located, is expected to be the third-largest contributor to the double-digit advance. For its part, Nvidia’s earnings per share are expected to be up more than 60%.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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