Earnings results

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Analysts are betting on banks to drive another big jump in S&P 500 profits

S&P 500 earnings per share are expected to be up 11% from Q4 2023.

1/14/25 3:47PM

Analysts expect that Q4 earnings results — which are set to unofficially start tomorrow with numbers from financial behemoths like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, among others — will be up a blockbuster 11% from the previous year, according to FactSet.

Given that financials start the reporting extravaganza, it’s worth noting that this group is expected to be the single largest contributor to earnings growth (~40% EPS growth, per FactSet) of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500. That’s largely due to easy comparisons with Q4 2023, when banks were forced to cough up billions as part of a special assessment from the FDIC to cover the costs of the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic.

The communications-services sector — home to Meta and Alphabet — is expected to be the second-largest contributor to growth. Meta’s earnings per share are forecast to jump more than 25%, and Alphabet’s are seen as rising 30%. The information-technology sector, where Nvidia and other semiconductor stocks are located, is expected to be the third-largest contributor to the double-digit advance. For its part, Nvidia’s earnings per share are expected to be up more than 60%.

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