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Retail traders’ success is thanks to doubling down on two things that have worked: “AI” and “buy the dip”

Main Street bought after weakness at three distinct moments early in the year.

This year, we’ve seen evidence that the increased presence of retail traders is changing how stocks behave around earnings announcements, and even forcing institutional investors to buy what they’re buying.

“2025 is set to be a record year for retail traders,” JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain wrote on the footprint of the retail community, noting that inflows by the cohort are “tracking at ~1.9 times the 5-year average, 50% above the levels seen last year and 12% above the previous peak seen during the retail mania of 2021.”

And for these traders, it’s also been a successful stretch because of a continued willingness to double down on a theme that’s been the biggest driver of market success in recent years (AI) and a tactic that hasn’t yet let them down (buy the dip).

“Retail investors began the year by sizeably buying the dip during three episodes of weakness (Post-DeepSeek correction, Momentum Unwind, and Liberation Day meltdown) — building 75% of their year to date single stock position during Jan-Apr and making Tech, particularly Nvidia and Tesla, clear winners of this trend,” he wrote.

JPM cumulative retail buying
JPMorgan

(Side note: poor Apple!)

For years, retail has been building an increasingly de facto “overweight AI, underweight everything else” position.

“In fact, retail investors have proved their conviction in the AI theme by funding large purchases in AI30/Mag 7 with holdings in the SPX 470,” Jain added. “This bifurcation has been persistent since 2023 following the launch of ChatGPT.”

JPM retail quarterly buying activity
JPMorgan

Since the release of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, the maximum number of days between fresh highs in the S&P 500 has been 128 sessions (or a little over six months), a milestone-free dry spell that ran from February 19 to June 27 of this year. During that period and thereafter, AI-geared stocks have played a key role in fueling the market’s gains.

As such, buying the dip — and doing so across AI stocks in particular — has been an extremely potent combination.

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

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US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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