Markets
US-SPACE-AEROSPACE-SPACEX-STARSHIP
Chandan Khanna/Getty Images
The call of destiny

Retail investors want private stocks

Why are investors vastly overpaying to own shares of Destiny?

Jack Raines

The median valuation of a successful tech IPO increased from $548M in 2010, to $815M in 2015, to an astounding $4.3B in 2020 as an abundance of venture capital and private equity funding has allowed companies to stay private longer.

The biggest losers from this trend? Retail investors. Accredited investor laws limit most private investments to institutional and high net worth investors. The exceptions such as crowdfunded vehicles may allow retail investors to legally invest in a startup, but the reality is investment minimums price them out of most deals.

But what if you could buy shares in a public company that then invested in a private company for you? Enter: Destiny Tech100.

After purchasing shares of 23 private companies such as Stripe, SpaceX, and OpenAI, Destiny listed on the New York Stock Exchange with plans to increase its holdings to 100 different startups. “Tens of thousands of individual investors” have invested in the new vehicle since its listing, according to CEO Sohail Prasad, and its stock price has soared from $9 on March 26 to over $50 today.

There’s just one problem: the fund’s assets are worth just $4.84 per share according to Destiny’s SEC filing, which notes its private company holdings are worth $54,307,219. And yet, the stock is trading for more than 10x that, meaning that investors are paying more than a 1000% premium to invest in these startups. As Matt Levine noted yesterday, more than 90% of what investors are paying for is the premium for Destiny, not the underlying companies themselves.

Why would someone overpay 1,000% for this? I have three hypotheses:

  1. Investors are fully aware of the premium that they’re paying, and they believe that the companies, or the potential of the companies Destiny picks, are worth it.

  2. Investors saw that they can invest in Stripe and SpaceX for $56, they have no idea what net asset value is and they really don’t care — they just want to be able to own hot, buzzy startups.

  3. Some investors realize that $56 is overpriced, but they also realize that enough investors don’t realize the stock is overpriced and are bidding the price up. These investors begrudgingly decide that, in the context of a limited supply for a misunderstood hot asset, this is the best price they’re going to get, and they’ll just have to pay a premium for it.

This is not much different than, say, someone paying $300 for a share of GameStop at a $20B market cap or $60 for Trump Media at 1,500x revenue because they “like the stock.” The market, in the short-term, couldn’t care less about your “valuations,” and your ability to invest at a fair price is dependent on the rest of the market understanding what a fair price is.

More Markets

See all Markets
markets
Luke Kawa

BlackBerry is on one of its hottest rallies of all time

History suggests that BlackBerry does extremely well when 1) it’s considered to be pioneering a transformative technology, or 2) there’s widespread retail enthusiasm for stocks.

If you squint (or dream), you could argue that both are going on right now.

Shares of the once-upon-a-time smartphone giant are up more than 160% over the past three months. The only times the shares have had a hotter run of form than this are at the tail end of the dot-com bubble, and in early 2021 when was it part of the meme stock craze headlined by GameStop.

Let’s start with the easy part first — here’s Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel, on retail’s significant footprint in the shares’ rally:

“Retail traders are the new price setters in the market. May volumes across our retail cash equities and options platforms are currently tracking at record levels. Daily volumes on our cash platform are setting new highs and are on pace to finish nearly ~10% above the previous record established during the January 2021 meme-stock era.”

And then there’s the harder part, part of the story that the traders bidding up BlackBerry now are dreaming about: the QNX division, which offers software that the company is positioning as an operating system for robots.

QNX’s software has early uptake in the field of autonomous driving, with BlackBerry eyeing a much more widespread role: in April, it announced a partnership to deploy this technology on Nvidia’s robotics platform. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, for his part, has long been calling for agentic AI adoption to be followed by physical AI (i.e., robots).

In a QNX press release unveiling a report this week, the company argued that software, not hardware, is the real problem in terms of making sure robotics works.

I supposed it would be poetic, in a way, if the company at the leading edge of the smartphone revolution also plays a big role in the proliferation of robotics.

markets
Luke Kawa

Micron and Sandisk rally on new Street-high price targets from Susquehanna

Micron and Sandisk both hit fresh all-time highs in early trading after Susquehanna bestowed new Wall Street-high price targets on the two memory stocks.

Analyst Mehdi Hosseini upped his view on the former to $1,750 from $600, and to $3,250 from $2,000 for the latter.

“Supply is now expected to remain tight through 2027, sustaining elevated margins and thus warranting valuation re-rating,” he wrote, per Bloomberg.

It’s the fifth time in the past year that the average price target on Micron has gone up by more than 10% in a week. UBS’s Tim Arcuri more than tripled his price target on Micron earlier this week, and has already lost the title of “most bullish.”

But even as analysts are tripping over themselves to raise their price targets on these stocks, the ferocity of the rally in Micron has outpaced their best efforts.

The high-bandwidth memory specialist traded at a record premium to the consensus Wall Street price target this week, based on data going back to 2008.

markets

Okta soars on Q1 earnings beat, raised outlook driven by AI security demand

Okta shares are surging in early trading Friday after the identity security provider posted Q1 fiscal 2027 financial results that exceeded Wall Street estimates. The strong results are fueled by accelerating corporate demand for cybersecurity software, as well as the deployment of autonomous AI systems.

Key numbers:

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.91 compared to analysts estimate of $0.85.

  • Revenue of $765 million compared to an estimate of $752.7 million.

The company generated subscription revenue of $750 million, up 11% year over year. Okta also has $271 million in free cash flow, up from $238 million in the prior years quarter.

While standard cybersecurity software protects human workers, the latest catalyst sparking Oktas strong corporate performance is the rapid emergence of autonomous AI agents that can access sensitive corporate databases and interact with privileged executive accounts.

“AI agents are rapidly becoming a new workforce inside every organization, creating a wave of identities that must be secured and governed alongside human users,” said Todd McKinnon, CEO and cofounder of Okta. “We’re expanding our opportunity as the world’s leading independent and neutral identity provider and helping customers make identity the unified control plane for their secure agentic enterprise.”

Okta raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to between $3.185 billion and $3.205 billion, roughly in line with estimates of $3.18 billion. The company formally dropped its long-term projected non-GAAP tax rate from 26% down to 21%. This adjustment is a direct byproduct of the federal corporate tax frameworks under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Shares of Okta have risen around 9% since the beginning of this year.

markets

HPE, SMCI surge after Dell’s Q1 beat on strong AI server demand

HP Enterprise and Super Micro Computer shares are surging in premarket trading, getting a big boost from rival Dell’s strong Q1 results.

Dell’s $16.1 billion in AI-optimized server sales for the quarter alone proved that enterprise data center demand is accelerating faster than Wall Street had anticipated. The company posted revenue of $43.8 billion, exceeding Street estimates of $35.5 billion. Management now sees full-year sales of about $167 billion, well above the $142 billion expected by analysts.

The read-through is particularly relevant for Super Micro, one of the largest suppliers of Nvidia-powered AI server systems, and HPE, which has been expanding its AI infrastructure and liquid-cooling offerings through its partnership with Nvidia.

The moves suggest investors view AI infrastructure as a broad spending cycle that benefits server makers across the entire ecosystem.

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC and Chartr Limited produce fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and are fully owned subsidiaries of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Money, LLC, Robinhood U.K. Ltd, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, Robinhood Gold, LLC, Robinhood Asset Management, LLC, Robinhood Credit, Inc., Robinhood Ventures DE, LLC and, where applicable, its managed investment vehicles.