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Higher rates hurt, but structural issues are more concerning

Foundational issues

While the broader S&P 500 has soared to record highs this year, up some 9% at the latest count, one sector has remained in the red for most of 2024: real estate.

Indeed, the XLRE, an ETF designed to track the real estate segment of the S&P 500, is down 7% in 2024. That makes it the worst performing of any S&P 500 sector — an undesirable title which it also holds over 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year lookback periods.

So, what’s going on with real estate?

Some analysts would argue that it’s all about rates. Real estate has historically been a comfortable, safe place to park your money and earn a yield from rent-producing assets like offices, retail space, or residential properties. When rates rise — as they have done over the last 24 months — other opportunities to invest and earn a good return crop up, making real estate look less attractive.

That is certainly part of the puzzle. Another is arguably more structural: in the post-pandemic world, we might simply have too much office and retail space, which many REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) and real estate stocks own a lot of… usually with borrowed money.

Indeed, as of the first quarter, office vacancy rates have hit a 40-year high, just shy of 20%, according to Moody’s Analytics. As demand stagnates and leases come up for renewal, commercial real estate is being sold at significant discounts, with some buildings that have been empty for years selling for pennies on the dollar in New York, San Francisco, St. Louis, and elsewhere.

The flip side: The one part of real estate that’s booming? Demand for space for AI data centers, which jumped 26% last year.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

markets
Jake Lahut

Comcast shares rise on news of NBCUniversal spinoff deal

Comcast rose on the news that the telecom behemoth is spinning off NBCUniversal and Sky from its cable portfolio. 

Comcast initially jumped up to 17% in early trading, with the deal leaving management to focus on its core verticals of cable, wireless, and business services. 

NBCUniversal and Sky will form a new publicly traded company, similar to Versant Media, the holding company of CNBC and MS NOW that Comcast officially spun off in January. Bravo, one of the most lucrative properties that remained at Comcast, will remain part of NBCUniversal in the deal. The Universal theme parks and studios will also come with the new spinoff entity, along with Telemundo and Peacock.

Mike Cavanagh, the co-CEO of Comcast, will become the CEO for NBCUniversal, according to CNBC. 

The spinoff will be completed in about a year, according to a Comcast company statement. Its shareholders will also own shares in NBCUniversal, according to the same statement.

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