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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang
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Chip off the old block

It’s been 2,342 trading days since Nvidia and the Nasdaq 100 diverged like this

A lackluster response to Nvidia’s earnings report is not causing any negative market spillovers.

Luke Kawa

The 2024 stock market has, for all intents and purposes, belonged to Nvidia.

The chipmaker powering the AI boom has moved in the same direction as the S&P 500 on more than 70% of trading days this year; for the Nasdaq 100, that share is close to 80%.

That’s what makes the post-earnings divergence between Nvidia and the tech-heavy gauge so interesting, with the stock down over 3% while the Nasdaq 100 is up about 1.2% as of 12:15pm ET.

The landmark event that everyone thought might define the market direction, at least in the near-term, hasn’t.

We’ve gone 2,342 trading days since the Nasdaq 100 was up at least 1% while Nvidia was down at least 2.5%.

Nvidia is a $3 trillion company now; back then, its market capitalization was less than $12 billion. Its weighting in the Nasdaq 100 has increased substantially over this period, making this divergence all the more noteworthy.

What also makes this quite intriguing is that the volatility backdrop has been wildly different recently compared to previous times Nvidia has reported in the past year, as flagged by Macro Risk Advisors CEO and founder Dean Curnutt, ahead of the event.

We can backfill some good reasons why it hasn’t, like the strong performance of software stocks on the heels of Saleforce’s strong earnings, or this comment from Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives on how Nvidia is helping the entire semi industry (via BNN’s Amber Kanwar).

But stepping back, the conditions for a negatively-received Nvidia report to destabilize the broader market seemed to be present. That simply hasn’t happened.

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Chicago Bulls player Michael Jordan is surrounded by NBA Championship trophies after his team defeated the Utah Jazz 90-86 to win the 1997 NBA Finals at the United Center in Chicago, IL.

Stock climb on US-Iran peace deal; semiconductors rally

This morning, President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war.

markets

Intel surges after Trump announces US chip deal with Apple

Intel is soaring in early trading after President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Apple has agreed to work with the semiconductor giant to design and manufacture its chips domestically.

President Trump positioned the agreement as the latest victory for his administration’s industrial policy after the federal government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel last year.

"Stupid Presidents took our Economy for granted, and let Taiwan and others steal our Semiconductor Factories," Trump wrote in the post. "We design everything, but we need to BUILD it here, NOW! So I decided to help Intel because we need to design and build our Chips right here in America... and, finally, Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and build its Chips in America."

Intel reportedly reached a preliminary agreement back in May to manufacture chips for the Apple, which has been facing supply constraints for its iPhone as well other products. The deal could help Apple reduce its reliance on longtime partner TSMC by bringing more of its chip manufacturing stateside.

"This partnership helps Apple with chip development and manufacturing on US soil with greater focus on reducing dependence on Asian manufacturing facilities." Wedbush's Dan Ives commented in a company report. He has a $400 price target for Apple this year.

The timing aligns with Intel's technical roadmap. Earlier this week, Intel confirmed that its advanced, performance-boosted 18A-P process node officially entered its risk production phase. This move serves as a blueprint for both Intel chips and processors the company plans to build for foundry customers.

“The current capacity crunch is probably emboldening customers to give Intel a harder look at this stage than perhaps they might ordinarily be inclined to do as the prospect of more advanced capacity will take on higher value in a constrained environment,” wrote Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. “We are sure that Trump’s encouragement is at least not going to hurt though.”

Momentum was built around Intel Foundry services as surging global AI demand continuously outpaced capacity. Earlier this month, Google reportedly placed an order with Intel to manufacture more than 3 million of its increasingly popular tensor processing unit chips in 2028. According to the report, Nvidia is also testing to see if Intel could manufacture its next-gen Feynman chips.

markets

Stocks rise after US, Iran sign peace plan

Stocks rose Thursday morning after President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war, in another sign that a months-long war that caused energy prices to spike could be coming to an end.

Trump signed the MOU before a dinner in Versailles, France on Wednesday evening. The president previously announced that a deal had been reached on Sunday evening, saying that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would resume and that the US naval blockade would be lifted.

The deal comes after both sides exchanged attacks last week, escalating tensions to some of the highest levels since the US and Israel struck Iran in late February.

The price of Brent Crude ticked even lower after dropping on Sunday, sitting at about $76 a barrel. Oil giants like Shell, Chevron and Exxon fell on the news, as average gas prices in the US dropped below $4 for the first time in months.

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Last week, inflation readings for May showed both wholesale inflation and consumer prices rose in large part because of higher energy costs.

Signs of the peace deal have also lead to buying of momentum stocks this week. iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFrose another 1.46% in premarket trading.

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