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Nike plunges as investors weigh slowing sales, falling margins

Shares are down sharply from their 2021 peak and sit at levels that haven’t been seen consistently since 2018.

Nia Warfield

Nike shares tumbled 7% after the sneaker giant warned of slowing sales and margin pressure ahead.

The stock initially jumped after the bell Thursday when the sneaker giant’s Q3 earnings report wasn’t as bad as feared — but that optimism didn’t last long. Shares reversed course Friday morning after Nike warned on its conference call of more sales declines and a slower recovery in China, a key market. China’s Q3 sales tumbled 17% to $1.73 billion.

Looking ahead, Nike expects fourth-quarter sales to drop by a low-teens percentage, roughly in line with analysts’ forecasts, as it grapples with a number of headwinds including tariffs, volatile foreign exchange rates, and fading consumer confidence. The company also warned that margins would come under further pressure.

If you had invested in Nike in October of 2015 and held, your stock would be roughly flat now. The last time shares traded this low on a consistent basis was in March of 2018.

Brand fatigue and weaker consumer spending have weighed on Nike’s performance in the region, prompting the company to double down on its presence, including through investments in major sports leagues like China’s national basketball, track and field, and football teams.

“China specifically is where we’re being the most proactive in cleaning up the marketplace, and we’ll get back to inspiring the Chinese consumer in a more meaningful way,” Nike CEO Elliott Hill said on the earnings call.

Meanwhile, despite Nike’s push to clear out excess inventory with aggressive discounts, the strategy did little to lift margins, pulling them down to 41.5% for the quarter, down from 44.8% a year earlier.

Not everyone is pessimistic: Goldman Sachs reiterated its buy rating on the stock Friday, saying, “We remain constructive on the stock but acknowledge the company is early in its turnaround journey.”

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

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US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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