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Nike plunges as investors weigh slowing sales, falling margins

Shares are down sharply from their 2021 peak and sit at levels that haven’t been seen consistently since 2018.

Nia Warfield

Nike shares tumbled 7% after the sneaker giant warned of slowing sales and margin pressure ahead.

The stock initially jumped after the bell Thursday when the sneaker giant’s Q3 earnings report wasn’t as bad as feared — but that optimism didn’t last long. Shares reversed course Friday morning after Nike warned on its conference call of more sales declines and a slower recovery in China, a key market. China’s Q3 sales tumbled 17% to $1.73 billion.

Looking ahead, Nike expects fourth-quarter sales to drop by a low-teens percentage, roughly in line with analysts’ forecasts, as it grapples with a number of headwinds including tariffs, volatile foreign exchange rates, and fading consumer confidence. The company also warned that margins would come under further pressure.

If you had invested in Nike in October of 2015 and held, your stock would be roughly flat now. The last time shares traded this low on a consistent basis was in March of 2018.

Brand fatigue and weaker consumer spending have weighed on Nike’s performance in the region, prompting the company to double down on its presence, including through investments in major sports leagues like China’s national basketball, track and field, and football teams.

“China specifically is where we’re being the most proactive in cleaning up the marketplace, and we’ll get back to inspiring the Chinese consumer in a more meaningful way,” Nike CEO Elliott Hill said on the earnings call.

Meanwhile, despite Nike’s push to clear out excess inventory with aggressive discounts, the strategy did little to lift margins, pulling them down to 41.5% for the quarter, down from 44.8% a year earlier.

Not everyone is pessimistic: Goldman Sachs reiterated its buy rating on the stock Friday, saying, “We remain constructive on the stock but acknowledge the company is early in its turnaround journey.”

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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