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Netflix loses the war for Warner Bros., Wall Street sees a win

Netflix opened sharply higher Friday, after it withdrew from the takeover battle for Warner Bros. Discovery, ceding the ground to Paramount Skydance.

You don’t have to be much of a market sleuth to see that Wall Street never liked the idea of Netflix scooping up the assemblage of media and movie properties for a whooping $83 billion price tag.

The stock slumped both on the day Netflix submitted a bid and the day it entered into an acquisition agreement with Warner Bros.

Now, on the back of Netflix declining to raise its bid and dropping out of the race to acquire Warner Bros., the streaming platform’s shares are having their best day since the market’s bounce back from the April tariff tantrum.

Driving the gains are what HSBC analysts call its “graceful exit” from the WBD brouhaha:

“A positive turn of events in our view, as we believe NFLX’s withdrawal from the race will leave it free to refocus on its business, while its closest competitors grapple with long and distracting regulatory approval and merger integration processes, and with Paramount Skydance saddled with sizable deal debts. And one must not forget the $2.8 bllion breakup fee (around 20% of NFLX 2026 estimated EPS) that NFLX will now be owed from WBD for choosing to go with another suitor.”

You don’t have to be much of a market sleuth to see that Wall Street never liked the idea of Netflix scooping up the assemblage of media and movie properties for a whooping $83 billion price tag.

The stock slumped both on the day Netflix submitted a bid and the day it entered into an acquisition agreement with Warner Bros.

Now, on the back of Netflix declining to raise its bid and dropping out of the race to acquire Warner Bros., the streaming platform’s shares are having their best day since the market’s bounce back from the April tariff tantrum.

Driving the gains are what HSBC analysts call its “graceful exit” from the WBD brouhaha:

“A positive turn of events in our view, as we believe NFLX’s withdrawal from the race will leave it free to refocus on its business, while its closest competitors grapple with long and distracting regulatory approval and merger integration processes, and with Paramount Skydance saddled with sizable deal debts. And one must not forget the $2.8 bllion breakup fee (around 20% of NFLX 2026 estimated EPS) that NFLX will now be owed from WBD for choosing to go with another suitor.”

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders arent fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

markets

POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

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