Markets
markets
Matt Phillips

Oracle slides as traders sour on the recently anointed AI darling

Oracle is getting hit hard as investors question the durability of the AI boom.

Since the stock hit an all-time high in September, powered by the company’s $300 billion deal with OpenAI, shares are down about 40%.

And it’s not just the company’s share price that’s reflecting investors’ newfound jitters.

Volume in the market for credit default swaps — essentially a kind of insurance against a company defaulting on its debts — is surging as the company has supercharged its borrowing to finance its AI ambitions, Bloomberg’s Caleb Mutua reports:

“The price to protect against the company defaulting on its debt for five years tripled in recent months to as high as about 1.11 percentage point a year on Wednesday, or around $111,000 for every $10 million of principal protected, according to ICE Data Services.

As AI skeptics rushed in, trading volume on the company’s CDS ballooned to about $5 billion over the seven weeks ended Nov. 14, according to Barclays Plc credit strategist Jigar Patel. That’s up from a little more than $200 million in the same period last year.”

The activity in the Oracle CDS market underscores continued focus from investors on the risks associated with AI, even after Nvidia’s knockout earnings results Wednesday and efforts to quell persistent questions about an AI bubble.

Such concerns seem to have gotten the better of the market yesterday, with the S&P 500, after being up almost 2%, reversing hard back into the red. Today, markets are being propped up, in part, by a key Fed official's comments supporting a "near term" rate cut.

A Hedge Against AI Crash Emerges as Oracle CDS Market Explodes

A Hedge Against AI Crash Emerges as Oracle CDS Market Explodes

Volume in the market for credit default swaps — essentially a kind of insurance against a company defaulting on its debts — is surging as the company has supercharged its borrowing to finance its AI ambitions, Bloomberg’s Caleb Mutua reports:

“The price to protect against the company defaulting on its debt for five years tripled in recent months to as high as about 1.11 percentage point a year on Wednesday, or around $111,000 for every $10 million of principal protected, according to ICE Data Services.

As AI skeptics rushed in, trading volume on the company’s CDS ballooned to about $5 billion over the seven weeks ended Nov. 14, according to Barclays Plc credit strategist Jigar Patel. That’s up from a little more than $200 million in the same period last year.”

The activity in the Oracle CDS market underscores continued focus from investors on the risks associated with AI, even after Nvidia’s knockout earnings results Wednesday and efforts to quell persistent questions about an AI bubble.

Such concerns seem to have gotten the better of the market yesterday, with the S&P 500, after being up almost 2%, reversing hard back into the red. Today, markets are being propped up, in part, by a key Fed official's comments supporting a "near term" rate cut.

More Markets

See all Markets
markets
Max Knoblauch

Southwest reports lower-than-expected Q1 earnings and revenue, declines to offer full-year profit update

Southwest Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Its shares fell more than 6% in after-hours trading.

For the first quarter, Southwest reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $0.45 per share, compared to the $0.47 per share expected by Wall Street analysts polled by Factset.

  • Revenue of $7.25 billion, compared to estimates of $7.27 billion.

The carrier guided for adjusted earnings of between $0.35 and $0.65 per share for its second quarter, a range whose midpoint is below analyst estimates of $0.53 per share. Regarding its full-year 2026 earnings estimate of “at least” $4 per share, Southwest declined to give an update “given the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.”

“Achieving this outcome would require lower fuel prices and/or stronger revenue performance to offset higher fuel expense,” Southwest said.

Southwest introduced bag fees last year, ending a more than five-decade-long “bags fly free” policy. Earlier this month, less than a year after the change, it joined its major US rivals in hiking its bag fees by $10 amid surging jet fuel prices.

Southwest, which discontinued its fuel-hedging program last year, said it spent $1.36 billion on fuel and related taxes in the first quarter, up 8.6% year over year.

markets
Matt Phillips

ServiceNow dives after reporting sequential decline in profit margins

Cloud software giant ServiceNow — which has been something of a poster child for the AI-related software sell-off — saw its shares fall sharply after delivering Q1 results that included a quarter-on-quarter decline in profit margins.

The company reported:

  • Revenue of $3.77 billion, higher than the $3.75 billion analyst consensus estimate published by FactSet.

  • Diluted adjusted earnings of $0.97 per share, on point with the $0.97 analysts had expected.

  • Subscription revenue of $3.67 billion vs. the $3.65 billion predicted.

  • Non-GAAP gross margins of 79.5%, down from 80.5% in Q4.

ServiceNow issued guidance for Q2 subscription revenues of between $3.815 billion and $3.820 billion, compared to the $3.75 billion FactSet consensus estimate.

ServiceNow shares have been at the epicenter of the software sell-off driven by the fear that such companies are at risk of being rendered obsolete by AI. The stock was down 33% for the year through the end of the New York trading session on Wednesday.

markets
Matt Phillips

IBM falls despite posting better-than-expected Q1 results

Big Blue fell in after-hours trading despite reporting better-than-expected Q1 results, as it didn’t include in the release an internal metric it typically discloses to track the progress of its AI business. IBM reported: 

  • Q1 revenue of $15.92 billion vs. the $15.63 billion FactSet consensus estimate.

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $1.91 vs. the $1.81 consensus expectation.

  • Sales of $7.05 billion at its key, high-margin software segment vs. a $6.98 billion consensus of nine analyst estimates.

  • Sales of $3.33 billion in its infrastructure unit, which houses its growing AI mainframe business, vs. a $3.13 billion consensus estimate.

Unlike recent earnings statements, the company made no mention of an internal metric it used to track its progress in AI, which it called its “generative AI book of business.” That metric stood at $12.5 billion at the end of 2025, per the company.

The infrastructure business is of acute interest to the market, after AI giant Anthropic announced in February that Claude Code could efficiently modernize code bases in the COBOL programming language, which serves as a cornerstone of IBM’s enterprise mainframe business. The language is still widely used in certain industries, such as airlines and finance. (ATMs, for instance, run almost entirely on COBOL.) 

Anthropic’s COBOL announcement cut the legs out from under IBM. The stock plunged 13% on February 23, the day of the announcement — its worst daily drop in more than 25 years. And it was down roughly 15% for the year through the end of trading Wednesday.

Rani Molla
3h
Tesla Q1 earnings and revenue beat Wall Street’s estimates

Tesla reported earnings after the bell Wednesday.

Tesla Showroom Displays Model Y And Optimus Robot Visual In Shenzhen
Tasha Matsumoto
3h
Stocks close at new record high as US extends ceasefire with Iran

The mood was risk-on as traders bought Big Tech, AI names, and speculative stocks.

Bull

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.
©2026 Sherwood Media, LLC