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Berlin - November 6, 2024: Two guests dress up between two cardboard figures of candidates Kamala Harris (l) and Donald Trump (r) at the US Presidential Election Night 2024 at the Baden-Württemberg State Representation (Carsten Koall/Getty Images)
Indecision 2024

How Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citi, and Bank of America are trading the US election

The expected knee-jerk reactions across asset classes and a view on whatever we see Wednesday in markets will persist.

Luke Kawa

Here’s a summary of how some of the biggest institutions on Wall Street expect markets to react to different US election outcomes across different asset classes, as well as some broader thoughts on what will work, what won’t, and for how long:

The views of John Flood, head of Americas equities sales trading at Goldman Sachs, from an email to clients on Tuesday:

A November 4 note from JPMorgan, drawing on work from their FX and fixed-income strategy teams:

JPMorgan FX/rates US election views
Source: JPMorgan

An October 25 note from Citi’s global-asset allocation team:

Citi market implications of US election
Source: Citi Research

A November 3 note from Bank of America’s equity and quant strategy team:

“We believe a big knee-jerk reaction (2%+) should be faded.”

However, “Interestingly, post-election price momentum typically continues into following weeks. The direction of two-week returns following the day after an election was the same as the direction of the day after the election 100% of the time during the prior seven elections (since 1996) and 79% of the time since 1928.”

Price momentum around the election
Source: Bank of America

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Chicago Bulls player Michael Jordan is surrounded by NBA Championship trophies after his team defeated the Utah Jazz 90-86 to win the 1997 NBA Finals at the United Center in Chicago, IL.

Stock climb on US-Iran peace deal; semiconductors rally

This morning, President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war.

markets

Intel surges after Trump announces US chip deal with Apple

Intel is soaring in early trading after President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Apple has agreed to work with the semiconductor giant to design and manufacture its chips domestically.

President Trump positioned the agreement as the latest victory for his administration’s industrial policy after the federal government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel last year.

"Stupid Presidents took our Economy for granted, and let Taiwan and others steal our Semiconductor Factories," Trump wrote in the post. "We design everything, but we need to BUILD it here, NOW! So I decided to help Intel because we need to design and build our Chips right here in America... and, finally, Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and build its Chips in America."

Intel reportedly reached a preliminary agreement back in May to manufacture chips for the Apple, which has been facing supply constraints for its iPhone as well other products. The deal could help Apple reduce its reliance on longtime partner TSMC by bringing more of its chip manufacturing stateside.

"This partnership helps Apple with chip development and manufacturing on US soil with greater focus on reducing dependence on Asian manufacturing facilities." Wedbush's Dan Ives commented in a company report. He has a $400 price target for Apple this year.

The timing aligns with Intel's technical roadmap. Earlier this week, Intel confirmed that its advanced, performance-boosted 18A-P process node officially entered its risk production phase. This move serves as a blueprint for both Intel chips and processors the company plans to build for foundry customers.

“The current capacity crunch is probably emboldening customers to give Intel a harder look at this stage than perhaps they might ordinarily be inclined to do as the prospect of more advanced capacity will take on higher value in a constrained environment,” wrote Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. “We are sure that Trump’s encouragement is at least not going to hurt though.”

Momentum was built around Intel Foundry services as surging global AI demand continuously outpaced capacity. Earlier this month, Google reportedly placed an order with Intel to manufacture more than 3 million of its increasingly popular tensor processing unit chips in 2028. According to the report, Nvidia is also testing to see if Intel could manufacture its next-gen Feynman chips.

markets

Stocks rise after US, Iran sign peace plan

Stocks rose Thursday morning after President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war, in another sign that a months-long war that caused energy prices to spike could be coming to an end.

Trump signed the MOU before a dinner in Versailles, France on Wednesday evening. The president previously announced that a deal had been reached on Sunday evening, saying that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would resume and that the US naval blockade would be lifted.

The deal comes after both sides exchanged attacks last week, escalating tensions to some of the highest levels since the US and Israel struck Iran in late February.

The price of Brent Crude ticked even lower after dropping on Sunday, sitting at about $76 a barrel. Oil giants like Shell, Chevron and Exxon fell on the news, as average gas prices in the US dropped below $4 for the first time in months.

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Last week, inflation readings for May showed both wholesale inflation and consumer prices rose in large part because of higher energy costs.

Signs of the peace deal have also lead to buying of momentum stocks this week. iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFrose another 1.46% in premarket trading.

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