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How bitcoin’s moves show that the stock market is actually fueled by vibes

Bitcoin has been strongly correlated with the S&P 500; the low-volatility stocks within the S&P 500 have not.

Luke Kawa

Bitcoin is behaving more like the S&P 500 than the boring, safer stocks within the S&P 500 are.

The 21-session correlation between the daily change in the iShares Bitcoin Trust and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF recently got above 0.75, a level not seen since early April, when both were cratering on the announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, the 21-session correlation between SPY and the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF, which holds the stocks that tend not to move as much, has collapsed. It’s gone negative, but could reasonably just be described as simply uncorrelated.

These correlations hint at what’s been a key driver for the benchmark US index: the ebbs and flows of speculative appetite. (I’m operating under the assumption that changes in sentiment, willingness to take risk, and ride momentum are the proximate causes of why bitcoin goes up and down.)

I have received more than a bit of pushback across social media recently for suggesting that bitcoin is behaving like a leveraged, low-fundamentals tech stock. I’m happy to correct the record — but only to change the chain of causality here.

That is, stocks are behaving like a de-levered version of bitcoin.

It seems fairly clear at this juncture that rollovers in bitcoin and other speculative pockets of the market in October were the bleeding edge of the retreat from risk that’s gone on to infect even the AI megacap leaders as of late.

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

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US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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