History suggests a more muted return for stocks after two years of massive gains

6.7%

That’s the average annual return on stocks after two straight years in which the S&P 500 rose more than 20%, as it did in 2023 (24.2%) and 2024 (23.3%), according to research from a portfolio manager at Glenmede Investment Management, cited by Paul R. La Monica over at Barron’s.

The piece argues that it might be time to diversify out of high-flying tech stocks and into more mundane dividend payers that are operating profitable businesses today, rather than making vague promises about revolutionizing the world at some time in the future. (Yes, we’re talking about you, Elon. )

That advice seems sensible enough. But given the market’s single-minded focus on the sort of massive gains over the last couple years from companies like Nvidia, Palantir, and Tesla, I wouldn’t expect a lot of people to follow it.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Meta surges on report it’s starting a cloud business to sell excess AI compute

The story of the hyperscalers in 2026 has largely been “the beatings will continue until the cash flow outlook improves;” this could help change the story for Meta. Or not.

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