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“The best trading period” for US stocks starts today, says Goldman

The bank’s tactical-trading specialist thinks markets will rip higher from now through year-end.

“Today starts the best trading period of Q4 for US equities with data going back to 1928,” writes Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets at Goldman Sachs.

Since 1928, the median return from now through year-end is 5.2% for the S&P 500. Since 1985, the Nasdaq 100 has tended to be up double-digits over the same stretch.

S&P 500 seasonals
Source: Goldman Sachs
Nasdaq seasonals
Source: Goldman Sachs

Conventional wisdom on Wall Street, per Rubner, is that stocks will retreat after next Tuesday’s election, but he’s more optimistic.

“I think that the US election will be a clearing event for risk assets, and re-risking may happen quickly (and out of favor sectors and themes that are under-owned),” he writes.

Starting now, activity of the bigger sellers of equities (mutual and pension funds) will die down, while a huge buyer — companies repurchasing their own shares — will begin to return in earnest as the heavy week of earnings announcements plays out.

Rubner previously flagged that Corporate America has already authorized a record $1 trillion in share buybacks so far in 2024, and November tends to be the busiest month for executing these repurchases.

Generally, there’s a lot of scope for money to rotate out of cash into stocks, he adds.

US fund flows since 2019
Source: Goldman Sachs

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Stock climb on US-Iran peace deal; semiconductors rally

This morning, President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war.

markets

Intel surges after Trump announces US chip deal with Apple

Intel is soaring in early trading after President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Apple has agreed to work with the semiconductor giant to design and manufacture its chips domestically.

President Trump positioned the agreement as the latest victory for his administration’s industrial policy after the federal government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel last year.

"Stupid Presidents took our Economy for granted, and let Taiwan and others steal our Semiconductor Factories," Trump wrote in the post. "We design everything, but we need to BUILD it here, NOW! So I decided to help Intel because we need to design and build our Chips right here in America... and, finally, Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and build its Chips in America."

Intel reportedly reached a preliminary agreement back in May to manufacture chips for the Apple, which has been facing supply constraints for its iPhone as well other products. The deal could help Apple reduce its reliance on longtime partner TSMC by bringing more of its chip manufacturing stateside.

"This partnership helps Apple with chip development and manufacturing on US soil with greater focus on reducing dependence on Asian manufacturing facilities." Wedbush's Dan Ives commented in a company report. He has a $400 price target for Apple this year.

The timing aligns with Intel's technical roadmap. Earlier this week, Intel confirmed that its advanced, performance-boosted 18A-P process node officially entered its risk production phase. This move serves as a blueprint for both Intel chips and processors the company plans to build for foundry customers.

“The current capacity crunch is probably emboldening customers to give Intel a harder look at this stage than perhaps they might ordinarily be inclined to do as the prospect of more advanced capacity will take on higher value in a constrained environment,” wrote Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. “We are sure that Trump’s encouragement is at least not going to hurt though.”

Momentum was built around Intel Foundry services as surging global AI demand continuously outpaced capacity. Earlier this month, Google reportedly placed an order with Intel to manufacture more than 3 million of its increasingly popular tensor processing unit chips in 2028. According to the report, Nvidia is also testing to see if Intel could manufacture its next-gen Feynman chips.

markets

Stocks rise after US, Iran sign peace plan

Stocks rose Thursday morning after President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war, in another sign that a months-long war that caused energy prices to spike could be coming to an end.

Trump signed the MOU before a dinner in Versailles, France on Wednesday evening. The president previously announced that a deal had been reached on Sunday evening, saying that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would resume and that the US naval blockade would be lifted.

The deal comes after both sides exchanged attacks last week, escalating tensions to some of the highest levels since the US and Israel struck Iran in late February.

The price of Brent Crude ticked even lower after dropping on Sunday, sitting at about $76 a barrel. Oil giants like Shell, Chevron and Exxon fell on the news, as average gas prices in the US dropped below $4 for the first time in months.

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Last week, inflation readings for May showed both wholesale inflation and consumer prices rose in large part because of higher energy costs.

Signs of the peace deal have also lead to buying of momentum stocks this week. iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFrose another 1.46% in premarket trading.

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