Markets
FED Hearing July 10
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies during the House Financial Services Committee hearing (Tom Williams/Getty Images)

Gold and silver spike to record highs after Powell says DOJ subpoenas are latest Trump attempt to influence monetary policy

“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president,” Powell said.

Precious metals are proving their mettle as a store of value, up big in early trading on Monday after the head of the Federal Reserve explicitly said that the executive branch is attempting to use judicial tools to interfere with the conduct of monetary policy.

Gold reached $4,599 while silver traded as high as $84.60, both records for the shiny stuff, as they continue their sensational runs.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the US central bank had been served with grand jury subpoenas by the US Department of Justice, “threatening a criminal indictment” pertaining to Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June, which touched on the contentious renovation plans of the Fed’s facilities. President Trump and critics of the chair have mused about firing Powell for cause over alleged cost overruns related to the project.

“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president,” Powell said in a video message. “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions — or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”

Typically, countries in which central bank policy is judged to be subordinated to political whims face weakness in their domestic currencies and higher borrowing costs. This can increase the appeal of safe haven assets such as precious metals. Since 7 p.m. E.T yesterday evening, the US Dollar Index has shed about ~0.4%, weakening against a basket of major currencies including the euro, yen, and pound sterling.

The iShares Silver Trust and SPDR Gold Shares ETF are the top two trending tickers on the r/WallStreetBets subreddit over the past 12 hours, per SwaggyStocks.

SwaggyStocks SLV GLD
Source: SwaggyStocks

Trump has suggested that the Federal Reserve’s policy rate (currently in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%) should be “1% and maybe lower than that” this year, in part to help reduce the cost of financing government debt. The president is expected to announce his pick to succeed Powell as the top US monetary policymaker imminently.

Interestingly, news of these subpoenas did not see prediction markets meaningfully curb the odds of the “insider” candidate to assume this position, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller. He remains at roughly 10%. Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, retook a narrow lead over former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh as the most likely pick for chair, per prediction markets, with both at around 40% or higher as of 4 a.m. ET on Monday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

markets

US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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