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GitLab shares dive as death-of-human-coding theme strengthens

Shares of software development service GitLab tumbled Wednesday after lackluster guidance undermined an otherwise solid set of Q4 results.

The hard numbers, however, may be less important for the shares than the hardening narrative entombing the company, whose stock price is down roughly 60% over the last year, at last glance.

In short, the problem is that GitLab sells coding and software development services long used by human coders and software developers. And investors think rapid advances in AI coding, through programs like Claude Code, mean there will be far fewer flesh-and-blood programmers to use GitLab in the future.

To wit, this report from The Information notes that OpenAI is developing an alternative to Microsoft’s GitHub — not to be confused with GitLab, an independent company, though both offer similar services such as code repositories and collaborative software development tools.

For sure, it’s not clear that human coders are destined for the dustbin of history. But it does seem fairly obvious that far fewer will be needed.

As I’ve written recently, that makes the AI boom somewhat distinct from other recent tech frenzies, in which programmers were typically insulated from the job losses their work often unleashes.

In short, the problem is that GitLab sells coding and software development services long used by human coders and software developers. And investors think rapid advances in AI coding, through programs like Claude Code, mean there will be far fewer flesh-and-blood programmers to use GitLab in the future.

To wit, this report from The Information notes that OpenAI is developing an alternative to Microsoft’s GitHub — not to be confused with GitLab, an independent company, though both offer similar services such as code repositories and collaborative software development tools.

For sure, it’s not clear that human coders are destined for the dustbin of history. But it does seem fairly obvious that far fewer will be needed.

As I’ve written recently, that makes the AI boom somewhat distinct from other recent tech frenzies, in which programmers were typically insulated from the job losses their work often unleashes.

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders arent fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

markets

POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

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