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The French Polymarket whale won so much money that France is investigating the platform

France may look to ban Polymarket after one of its residents made tens of millions betting on the US election.

My favorite story from this election cycle was that of the French Polymarket whale, “Théo.” On October 18, The Wall Street Journal reported that a group of four accounts on Polymarket, the popular crypto-based prediction market that operates outside the US, had collectively wagered $30 million on various bets supporting Donald Trump winning the presidential race. Most of the money was wagered on straightforward bets for Trump to win the election, but some money was placed on swing states and popular-vote results as well.

Two weeks later, the Journal interviewed the man behind these accounts: a Frenchman named Théo who had previously worked as a trader in the US. While there had been speculation that the “Polymarket whale” was attempting to manipulate the market to create the perception that Trump was outperforming poll data by bidding up his odds, Théo told the Journal that his intent was “just making money,” and he has “absolutely no political agenda.” He also, apparently, YOLO’d most of his liquid assets on the election bet:

“If Harris wins, Théo could lose most or all of his $30 million, which he described as the majority of his available liquid assets.

He is such a big trader on Polymarket that he is effectively stuck, unable to exit his wagers without crashing the market. The four Trump whale’ accounts collectively hold about 25% of the contracts on Trump winning the Electoral College and over 40% of the contracts on Trump winning the popular vote, according to data provider Polymarket Analytics.” 

Anyway, Théo’s gamble paid off, and Bloomberg noted that the French trader is expecting to reap a total profit of approximately $79 million, making him the biggest winner on Polymarket’s leaderboard. Not bad! However, one group that took issue with the Frenchman’s Polymarket trade was France’s Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), the country’s gambling authority.

From Bloomberg:

“Online gambling is tightly regulated in France, although betting on sports and in poker games is permitted. Operating any new gambling market is subject to prior authorization from the ANJ, according to a government website.

We are aware of this site and are currently examining its operation and compliance with French gambling legislation,’ an Autorité Nationale des Jeux spokesperson for the regulator told Bloomberg News on Thursday. The ANJ is expected to ban access to Polymarket for French users, crypto news outlet The Big Whale reported late Wednesday.”

And here’s the quote from The Big Whale:

Even if Polymarket uses cryptocurrencies in its operations, it remains a betting activity and this is not legal in France,’ [says] a source close to the ANJ.

Polymarket consists of betting money on something random, that’s strictly the definition of gambling, it’s like a sports bet,’ confirms William O'Rorke, partner at ORWL Avocats. And unlike financial companies, the ANJ has the power to block the platform even though Polymarket does not specifically target French users,’ he continues.”

For context, Polymarket, which is headquartered in New York, does not currently operate in the US. In January 2022, the CFTC ruled that Polymarket had violated Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and CFTC regulations by offering “swaps” on an unregistered exchange. Polymarket paid a $1.4 million penalty and shut down its US operations, moving overseas.

Meanwhile, Kalshi and Interactive Brokers both received approval from the CFTC to offer prediction markets in 2022 and 2024, respectively. Additionally, while the CFTC initially blocked betting markets on elections, a judge ruled in Kalshi’s favor, and Kalshi and Interactive Brokers subsequently listed their own election markets in the weeks leading up to the election.

While Polymarket had largely avoided international scrutiny until now, its recent popularity (the exchange processed $3.2 billion in election bets, including the tens of millions wagered and won by Théo) has put it on French regulators’ radar. If the ANJ does take action against Polymarket like the CFTC did two years ago, the prediction market may be forced to comply with regulatory frameworks that it has avoided since leaving the US market.

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BlackBerry is on one of its hottest rallies of all time

History suggests that BlackBerry does extremely well when 1) it’s considered to be pioneering a transformative technology, or 2) there’s widespread retail enthusiasm for stocks.

If you squint (or dream), you could argue that both are going on right now.

Shares of the once-upon-a-time smartphone giant are up more than 160% over the past three months. The only times the shares have had a hotter run of form than this are at the tail end of the dot-com bubble, and in early 2021 when was it part of the meme stock craze headlined by GameStop.

Let’s start with the easy part first — here’s Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel, on retail’s significant footprint in the shares’ rally:

“Retail traders are the new price setters in the market. May volumes across our retail cash equities and options platforms are currently tracking at record levels. Daily volumes on our cash platform are setting new highs and are on pace to finish nearly ~10% above the previous record established during the January 2021 meme-stock era.”

And then there’s the harder part, part of the story that the traders bidding up BlackBerry now are dreaming about: the QNX division, which offers software that the company is positioning as an operating system for robots.

QNX’s software has early uptake in the field of autonomous driving, with BlackBerry eyeing a much more widespread role: in April, it announced a partnership to deploy this technology on Nvidia’s robotics platform. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, for his part, has long been calling for agentic AI adoption to be followed by physical AI (i.e., robots).

In a QNX press release unveiling a report this week, the company argued that software, not hardware, is the real problem in terms of making sure robotics works.

I supposed it would be poetic, in a way, if the company at the leading edge of the smartphone revolution also plays a big role in the proliferation of robotics.

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Micron and Sandisk rally on new Street-high price targets from Susquehanna

Micron and Sandisk both hit fresh all-time highs in early trading after Susquehanna bestowed new Wall Street-high price targets on the two memory stocks.

Analyst Mehdi Hosseini upped his view on the former to $1,750 from $600, and to $3,250 from $2,000 for the latter.

“Supply is now expected to remain tight through 2027, sustaining elevated margins and thus warranting valuation re-rating,” he wrote, per Bloomberg.

It’s the fifth time in the past year that the average price target on Micron has gone up by more than 10% in a week. UBS’s Tim Arcuri more than tripled his price target on Micron earlier this week, and has already lost the title of “most bullish.”

But even as analysts are tripping over themselves to raise their price targets on these stocks, the ferocity of the rally in Micron has outpaced their best efforts.

The high-bandwidth memory specialist traded at a record premium to the consensus Wall Street price target this week, based on data going back to 2008.

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Okta soars on Q1 earnings beat, raised outlook driven by AI security demand

Okta shares are surging in early trading Friday after the identity security provider posted Q1 fiscal 2027 financial results that exceeded Wall Street estimates. The strong results are fueled by accelerating corporate demand for cybersecurity software, as well as the deployment of autonomous AI systems.

Key numbers:

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.91 compared to analysts estimate of $0.85.

  • Revenue of $765 million compared to an estimate of $752.7 million.

The company generated subscription revenue of $750 million, up 11% year over year. Okta also has $271 million in free cash flow, up from $238 million in the prior years quarter.

While standard cybersecurity software protects human workers, the latest catalyst sparking Oktas strong corporate performance is the rapid emergence of autonomous AI agents that can access sensitive corporate databases and interact with privileged executive accounts.

“AI agents are rapidly becoming a new workforce inside every organization, creating a wave of identities that must be secured and governed alongside human users,” said Todd McKinnon, CEO and cofounder of Okta. “We’re expanding our opportunity as the world’s leading independent and neutral identity provider and helping customers make identity the unified control plane for their secure agentic enterprise.”

Okta raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to between $3.185 billion and $3.205 billion, roughly in line with estimates of $3.18 billion. The company formally dropped its long-term projected non-GAAP tax rate from 26% down to 21%. This adjustment is a direct byproduct of the federal corporate tax frameworks under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Shares of Okta have risen around 9% since the beginning of this year.

markets

HPE, SMCI surge after Dell’s Q1 beat on strong AI server demand

HP Enterprise and Super Micro Computer shares are surging in premarket trading, getting a big boost from rival Dell’s strong Q1 results.

Dell’s $16.1 billion in AI-optimized server sales for the quarter alone proved that enterprise data center demand is accelerating faster than Wall Street had anticipated. The company posted revenue of $43.8 billion, exceeding Street estimates of $35.5 billion. Management now sees full-year sales of about $167 billion, well above the $142 billion expected by analysts.

The read-through is particularly relevant for Super Micro, one of the largest suppliers of Nvidia-powered AI server systems, and HPE, which has been expanding its AI infrastructure and liquid-cooling offerings through its partnership with Nvidia.

The moves suggest investors view AI infrastructure as a broad spending cycle that benefits server makers across the entire ecosystem.

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AST SpaceMobile plummets after Blue Origin rocket explosion

Shares of AST SpaceMobile plunged as much as 15% before the bell on Friday after a Blue Origin rocket exploded yesterday evening on the launchpad.

The New Glenn rocket blew up in what the Jeff Bezos-backed company described on X as “an anomaly” during a hotfire test at the launchpad, only days before it’s due to launch satellites for Amazon’s Project Kuiper next week. Bezos added via X that “it’s too early to know the root cause but we’re already working to find it.” Videos of the explosion circulating on social media show an enormous fireball.

Though AST SpaceMobile’s satellites are not directly affected by the latest explosion, the company partnered with Blue Origin in November 2024 to use its New Glenn rocket to deliver AST’s next-generation Block 2 Bluebird satellites to low-Earth orbit. Citing multiple unidentified employees, the Financial Times reported that an initial assessment of the site showed severe damage to Blue Origin’s equipment, including its only launchpad.

The explosion is a stumbling block for AST’s goals to place at least 45 satellites in orbit by the end of the year. The journey to reach that goal already hit a pretty major speed bump in April, after Blue Origin reported that its New Glenn vehicle put AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 7 satellite at an altitude too low to maintain operations.

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