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Fed Chair Jerome Powell Holds An News Conference On Interest Rates
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged; Waller joins Miran in dissenting in favor of rate cut

The US central bank held its policy rate steady at its January meeting.

Luke Kawa

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at its January meeting.

The decision to stand pat was effectively universally expected by both prediction markets and economists, as monetary policymakers inserted language into their December statement implying that they would not be in a hurry to reduce rates again and the unemployment rate fell by more than anticipated in December, dipping to 4.4%.

Fed officials removed the phrase that “downside risks to employment rose in recent months” from this statement, indicating that the December employment report and other data released in the intervening period have alleviated some of their worries about the labor market.

Stocks were little changed in the aftermath of the decision, but the SPDR S&P 500 ETF moved marginally into positive territory during the press conference.

Two monetary policymakers dissented, preferring a rate cut: Governor Stephen Miran and Governor Christopher Waller.

Miran’s dissension was viewed as a near lock, as he voted for more easing than the central bank has delivered at every meeting since being added to the Federal Open Market Committee. However, event contracts implied it was almost a coin flip as to whether more officials would join him in disagreeing with the majority decision. There was speculation that Governor Chris Waller would join Miran in dissenting in favor of a rate cut in order to bolster his potential to be named as Fed Chair Jay Powell’s successor. President Donald Trump has castigated the central bank for not lowering rates as much or as fast as he believes would be appropriate.

Looking ahead to March, event contracts imply that the odds of the Federal Reserve holding steady again rose to about 90% from roughly 83% ahead of this decision.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

During the press conference, Powell said that both the downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation appear to have diminished, and struck an optimistic tone on the US economy.

Since the last meeting, there’s been a “clear improvement” in the economic outlook, he said, remarking that we’re starting off the year “on a firm footing.”

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

markets

US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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