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Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump walks offstage at the conclusion of a campaign rally on November 4, 2024, in Raleigh, North Carolina (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
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Trump’s stock-market loyalists are getting cold feet at the last minute

First Solar and other stocks that purportedly benefit from Democrats amassing political power are outperforming.

Luke Kawa

Most experts, like Nate Silver, have the US presidential election as too close to call. Traders in the stock market have been much more confident in the outcome, seemingly betting decisively on a Trump win

In this game of chicken, those with “skin in the game” are blinking at the eleventh hour. Call Monday’s stock-market price action the “Harris trade” — or, more accurately, call it a “we’re-not-so-sure-it’s-Trump trade.” 

A basket of stocks compiled by Goldman Sachs that would supposedly benefit from Democrat policy priorities is enjoying its biggest one-day outperformance of a similar basket related to Republican policy priorities since the session following the presidential debate between Trump and Harris. 

The poster child for this theme is First Solar, which is included in the Democratic policy basket referenced above. There’s a substantive policy difference between the two candidates that has the potential to materially impact the operational performance of companies in the clean-energy space: Trump has said he would rescind all unspent funds under the Inflation Reduction Act if he wins, and Harris wouldn’t. The stock is up 5% today on the heels of a gain that large to end last week.

Traders wiping the slate clean(er) today likely decreases the potential volatility associated with a Harris win, and increases the scope for some market fireworks in the event Trump prevails.

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Chicago Bulls player Michael Jordan is surrounded by NBA Championship trophies after his team defeated the Utah Jazz 90-86 to win the 1997 NBA Finals at the United Center in Chicago, IL.

Stock climb on US-Iran peace deal; semiconductors rally

This morning, President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war.

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Intel surges after Trump announces US chip deal with Apple

Intel is soaring in early trading after President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Apple has agreed to work with the semiconductor giant to design and manufacture its chips domestically.

President Trump positioned the agreement as the latest victory for his administration’s industrial policy after the federal government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel last year.

"Stupid Presidents took our Economy for granted, and let Taiwan and others steal our Semiconductor Factories," Trump wrote in the post. "We design everything, but we need to BUILD it here, NOW! So I decided to help Intel because we need to design and build our Chips right here in America... and, finally, Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and build its Chips in America."

Intel reportedly reached a preliminary agreement back in May to manufacture chips for the Apple, which has been facing supply constraints for its iPhone as well other products. The deal could help Apple reduce its reliance on longtime partner TSMC by bringing more of its chip manufacturing stateside.

"This partnership helps Apple with chip development and manufacturing on US soil with greater focus on reducing dependence on Asian manufacturing facilities." Wedbush's Dan Ives commented in a company report. He has a $400 price target for Apple this year.

The timing aligns with Intel's technical roadmap. Earlier this week, Intel confirmed that its advanced, performance-boosted 18A-P process node officially entered its risk production phase. This move serves as a blueprint for both Intel chips and processors the company plans to build for foundry customers.

“The current capacity crunch is probably emboldening customers to give Intel a harder look at this stage than perhaps they might ordinarily be inclined to do as the prospect of more advanced capacity will take on higher value in a constrained environment,” wrote Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. “We are sure that Trump’s encouragement is at least not going to hurt though.”

Momentum was built around Intel Foundry services as surging global AI demand continuously outpaced capacity. Earlier this month, Google reportedly placed an order with Intel to manufacture more than 3 million of its increasingly popular tensor processing unit chips in 2028. According to the report, Nvidia is also testing to see if Intel could manufacture its next-gen Feynman chips.

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Stocks rise after US, Iran sign peace plan

Stocks rose Thursday morning after President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war, in another sign that a months-long war that caused energy prices to spike could be coming to an end.

Trump signed the MOU before a dinner in Versailles, France on Wednesday evening. The president previously announced that a deal had been reached on Sunday evening, saying that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would resume and that the US naval blockade would be lifted.

The deal comes after both sides exchanged attacks last week, escalating tensions to some of the highest levels since the US and Israel struck Iran in late February.

The price of Brent Crude ticked even lower after dropping on Sunday, sitting at about $76 a barrel. Oil giants like Shell, Chevron and Exxon fell on the news, as average gas prices in the US dropped below $4 for the first time in months.

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Last week, inflation readings for May showed both wholesale inflation and consumer prices rose in large part because of higher energy costs.

Signs of the peace deal have also lead to buying of momentum stocks this week. iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFrose another 1.46% in premarket trading.

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