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Earnings season has been phenomenal, and it’s done nothing for the average stock

“The average stock has not moved on earnings this season, which is on the weaker side of the historical distribution,” writes Bespoke Investment Group.

Luke Kawa

11/17/25 8:08AM

Earnings season has been stellar. Traders’ reactions to earnings have been anything but.

Bespoke Investment Group has an excellent series of charts spotlighting just how positive this third-quarter corporate reporting period has been, with exceptional beat rates and guidance hikes across US stocks:

Q3 2025 earnings season stats — Source: Bespoke Investment Group

However, despite 73.5% of companies tracked by Bespoke beating on earnings per share this quarter, the analysts noted that earnings reactions have “been a completely different story.”

In particular, earnings beats have been rewarded with tepid gains, and companies that lowered their outlook were severely punished for a second consecutive season.

“The average stock has not moved on earnings this season, which is on the weaker side of the historical distribution,” they added.

Q3 2025 Earnings Season Stock Reaction — Source: Bespoke Investment Group

If I had to explain why stocks haven’t responded positively to robust results with guidance to match, I’d turn to the recent past.

Ahead of earnings season, September was the third-best month of 2025 for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, trailing only the May and June recovery from the tariff-induced meltdown in markets and subsequent softening of trade tensions. The three-month growth in 12-month forward earnings per share ahead of earnings season (4.9%) was the strongest it’s been since 2021, when corporate profitability was getting a powerful boost as economic reopening was met by consumers flush with excess spending power.

While these are still more the exceptions than the rules, you can point to episodic examples of stocks that were on an absolute tear into Q3 earnings — Palantir and Micron come to mind — that posted beats and raised guidance only to drop in the wake of these results. The combination of how well stocks had done heading into this reporting period and how much forward expectations were getting revised higher provided a very difficult bar to clear, and made it much more punishing for those who came up short.

In other words, a strong Q3 earnings season... was priced in.

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General Fusion CEO Greg Twinney spoke with Sherwood News from the Nasdaq during the stock’s first day of trading.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%

Job growth was 57,000. Analysts foresaw job growth of 113,000; prediction markets were more optimistic, looking for job growth above 125,000 but below 150,000.

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Meta surges on report it’s starting a cloud business to sell excess AI compute

The story of the hyperscalers in 2026 has largely been “the beatings will continue until the cash flow outlook improves;” this could help change the story for Meta. Or not.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

Earnings season has been phenomenal, and it’s done nothing for the average stock

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

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