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Does Nvidia’s stock tend to bounce back after a big drop? Charting the evidence from history

How often does the chip giant bounce back? Lessons from history.

Nvidia had just about the Mondayest Monday yesterday. After a year of astonishing momentum, the chipmaker saw some of that reversed with almost $600 billion wiped from its market cap in the biggest one-day monetary loss for a single stock in market history.

While shedding 17% in a single session obviously isn’t great for investors (or CEO Jensen Huang, whose estimated fortune shrank 20% or $20.1 billion in the sell-off yesterday), many analysts — like Dan Ives at Wedbush — are characterizing the stock’s drop as a “golden buying opportunity.”

With the fundamental debate likely to rage for weeks to come — Nvidia, for what it’s worth, thinks DeepSeek only did the easy bit — some investors will be curious: does the stock tend to bounce back after a dreadful day?

We crunched the numbers going back to 1999, when Nvidia first debuted on the stock market, looking for any days when Nvidia fell more than 5%. We found that had happened 370 times (371 if you include yesterday) with Nvidia’s stock trading in the green the day after on 196 occasions, and it falling again on 174 occasions.

So, that translates roughly to the stock “bouncing” (at least modestly) about 53% of the time.

Nvidia Bounce 1
Sherwood News

What about a shorter time horizon? After all, the Nvidia of today is a far cry from the Nvidia of the late 1990s. If we examine just the last decade or so, since 2015, we get a slightly different result.

Of the 95 times that Nvidia had fallen more than 5% in the decade before yesterday, the stock was up the next day in 60% of those instances.

Nvidia Bounce 2
(Sherwood News)

In premarket trading, Nvidia was briefly up more than 5%. But the stock has since given up some of those early gains, and is currently trading 3.4% higher than it closed yesterday.

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

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US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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