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Deutsche Bank upgrades software stocks, sees no evidence of negative impacts from AI on sales this year

“Also, after asking various experts, generalists, Gemini, ChatGPT and Claude, we have still not come across a single Software company that expects a negative revenue effect from AI in 2026,” the strategists wrote.

Luke Kawa

Deutsche Bank is betting that the nascent turnaround in software stocks is just getting started.

Strategists Maximilian Uleer, Carolin Raab, and Francesca Mazzali wrote:

Up until the Iran conflict, AI disruption caused the European Software sector to fall by 23% and US Software to fall by 19% over the past 6 months. Software companies are trading at historically low premiums versus the market. Current valuations imply that consensus believes that Software companies will no longer outgrow the broader index.

Facts are telling a different story. US Software companies’ earnings were up 29% in Q4 and expectations for 2026 earnings have been revised up. Also, after asking various experts, generalists, Gemini, ChatGPT and Claude, we have still not come across a single Software company that expects a negative revenue effect from AI in 2026.

The narrative has focused on the negative effects on Software while ignoring the positive effects of lower programming costs and potential product improvements due to AI. We think AI disruption worries have peaked. We upgrade Tech from Underweight to Neutral and turn overweight Software within Tech.

To review:

Yes, software stocks had a solid earnings season. More than 70% of the index that serves as the basis for the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF reported better-than-expected sales, and nearly 80% beat on the bottom line.

But the idea that no chatbot or expert could come up with an example of a software company whose top line might already be feeling some pressure from AI is ludicrous. (And that might be a bit of a straw man to begin with, as a decent chunk of the bear case is centered on “eventual” rather than “imminent” disruption).

I didn’t even need Gemini to remind me about Workday, which offered soft revenue guidance a couple of weeks ago.

“Workdays sales growth is constrained by the lack of a meaningful increase in users,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Anurag Rana and Andrew Girard wrote. And what’s constraining that “meaningful increase”? A preference to invest in AI tools rather than adding headcount.

There’s a little reading between the lines needed here, but if you expect management teams to bluntly state that it’s barely past breakfast and their lunch is already getting nibbled on, well you might be waiting forev— oh wait, there’s Chegg!

“The new realities of AI and reduced traffic from Google to content publishers have led to a significant decline in Chegg’s traffic and revenue,” per a press release in October that announced Chegg’s restructuring plan.

But from a shorter-term perspective, Deutsche’s analysts have some technicals to help support their fundamental case. The share of software stocks trading above their 50-day moving average has begun to pick up, as has the share no longer trading in oversold territory.

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

markets

US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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