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Carnival Avalon cruise
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Carnival cruises to record quarterly profits, but its outlook fails to make waves with investors

Shares of the mega cruise line are up over 25% in the past year.

Carnival sailed past first-quarter expectations, but the stock failed to take off after its outlook came in softer than expected.

The cruise giant reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.13, soaring past FactSet estimates of $0.02. Revenue hit a Q1 record of $5.81 billion, also topping projections. Operating income nearly doubled to $543 million.

Carnival CEO Josh Weinstein credited the results to “incredibly strong demand throughout our portfolio, including exceptional close-in demand that exceeded expectations for both ticket prices and onboard spending. Carnival has successfully pulled in a mix of first-time cruisers, brand switchers, and loyalists willing to pay top dollar to board its ships.

However, Weinstein acknowledged that while the company isn’t “completely immune from the heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility,” it remains “on track to have another stellar year across our cruise brands.” The broader travel sector is under pressure as tariff concerns, economic uncertainty, and cooling consumer confidence make investors wary over how long the cruise boom can last.

Carnival raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $1.83, up from its prior estimate of $1.70. But its near-term outlook missed the mark: Carnival projects Q2 EPS of $0.22, slightly below analysts’ estimates of $0.23. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast at $1.30 billion, also missing FactSet’s expectation of $1.35 billion.

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

markets

US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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