(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Brinker shares slide after earnings, but Chili’s is still bringing the heat as Gen Z’s dining-out darling

All hail the Triple Dipper.

4/29/25 8:21AM

Brinker International shares slid about 8% in premarket trading Monday, even as the parent of Chili’s and Maggiano’s Little Italy served up top- and bottom-line results that exceeded estimates and boosted its sales guidance.

The slump in the stock may signal overinflated expectations for a company that had been performing very well year to date, up 21% heading into today’s session versus a 6% decline in the S&P 500.

The fast-casual giant posted Q3 earnings of $2.66 per share, beating analyst estimates of $2.56, while revenue rose 27% year over year to $1.425 billion, also ahead of Wall Street’s target. Chili’s, Brinker’s undisputed MVP, drove most of the gains: comparable sales at the chain soared 28%, and franchisees pulled in $237.4 million, up from $216.2 million a year ago.

Brinker also sweetened its full-year outlook, raising revenue guidance to between $5.33 billion and $5.35 billion — a jump from the $5.15 billion to $5.25 billion range it offered back in January.

“Chili’s sales growth this quarter was driven primarily by continued increases in traffic, supported by advertising that highlights our industry-leading value and encourages guest trial,” the company said in a statement.

The continued strength in Chili’s is thanks in no small part to a social media sensation: the Triple Dipper.

TikTok made me do it

Chili’s has long been a staple of the American dining scene, first opening in Dallas in 1975 with a Southwestern-style menu aimed at bridging casual food and a bar-forward atmosphere. But most recently, the chain’s Triple Dipper — a choose-three combo of appetizers like Southwestern egg rolls, chicken crispers, sliders, and mozzarella sticks — has put the 50-year-old brand back on the map, becoming a near-instant viral hit.

According to trend analytics firm Spate, online interest in the Triple Dipper has surged by 118.5% over the past year, with TikTok engagement spiking 375.5%. Google searches, meanwhile, climbed nearly 30%. Much of that momentum can be traced back to content creators like Celine Chung, a California-based food and lifestyle influencer who saw her first Triple Dipper video explode with over 6.6 million views (and counting).

“I did the whole flash shot of the Triple Dipper spread — it just looked so visually appealing,” Chung told Sherwood News. “It started picking up fast. I checked back like 30 minutes later and it already had hundreds of thousands of views.”

Chung, who began creating food content in 2018 and pivoted to TikTok during the pandemic, says Chili’s content has proven unusually sticky. “In my first Chili’s one, I did like the whole flash with the spread of the Triple Dipper, and it just was so visually appealing. I think maybe I added a cheese pull in the beginning, too. I found that it really gravitates with an audience.”

A Kitchen Revamped

Brinker is betting big on that kind of heat. In the previous quarter, Chili’s began streamlining kitchen operations by removing its wing station, making room for high-performing items like the Triple Dipper and chicken crispers. It’s been paying off: the Triple Dipper accounted for 14% of total restaurant sales in Q2. Executives say the menu revamp is not only attracting a younger demographic, but also increasing average check sizes and driving repeat visits.

Even as restaurant spending grew 2% in 2024 — marking a fourth straight year of gains — Brinker has left the broader category in the dust. The company has tacked on more than $4 billion in market cap over the past year. Even with the Tuesday sell-off, Brinker’s stock has blown past rivals like Dine Brands (Applebee’s, IHOP), Cheesecake Factory, and Bloomin' Brands (Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s), and is up more than 203% over the past year.

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.
Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemon’s geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected “halo effect” across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemon’s valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retail’s richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi O’Neill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brand’s growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

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US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.