Brent crude oil tops $116 a barrel as Iran war continues

Oil is on track for its largest-ever monthly gain in March, with Brent crude rising above $116 a barrel Monday morning as the US-Iran war enters its fifth week following a series of escalations over the weekend.

On Sunday, Iran’s parliament speaker warned that US troops would be set “on fire” if they entered the country, as President Trump made a series of escalating statements; the commander in chief posted on Truth Social that the US had destroyed “many long sought after targets” in Iran, and told the Financial Times his “favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran” and that he could seize Kharg Island, the country’s key oil export hub. He maintained, however, that a peace deal could be around the corner, telling reporters aboard Air Force One that Iran had agreed to “most of” the 15-point peace plan floated last week and that the country’s leadership had agreed to allow over 20 oil cargo ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Asian stocks fell sharply on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down about 2.8% and South Korea’s KOSPI off roughly 3%, while European markets initially opened lower before paring losses, with the STOXX 600 last up about 0.5% in morning trading. US futures were modestly higher, perhaps reflecting the 3.4% decline in the last two days of trading last week.

Meanwhile, aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange jumped around 6% to $3,492 per tonne, nearing a four-year high, after Iran struck two of the Gulf’s largest aluminum smelters on Saturday, which together account for a substantial share of global output.

Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Trump is weighing a military operation to extract ~1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, citing US officials, a move that could require US troops on the ground for days or longer.