Markets

Bitcoin is behaving like a no-fundamentals tech stock

The three-month correlation between the daily changes in the iShares Bitcoin ETF and a Goldman Sachs basket of nonprofitable tech stocks is at a record high.

Luke Kawa

Digital gold. An uncorrelated store of value. An uncorrelated asset.

Bitcoin’s been called many things, and those aforementioned monikers may reflect how the preeminent crypto asset has behaved at different times over the past decade. However, that does not describe its current regime, in which it’s trading like a tech company that doesn’t make any money.

The three-month correlation between the iShares Bitcoin Trust and an index of nonprofitable tech stocks compiled by Goldman Sachs recently hit a record at 0.62.

Of course, this fund has a history of less than two years, so “record” may ring a little hollow. Turning to the three-month correlation between the weekly changes of bitcoin and this nonprofitable tech basket (to adjust for weekend trading days), the story is the same, though mildly less extreme relative to history. That correlation stands at about 0.78, in the 97th percentile based on data going back to December 2014.

In other words, if you’re looking to try to explain the movements in bitcoin these days, the answer can be found in how broad appetite for speculation waxes and wanes.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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